TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.20×

COL @ SF

Oracle Park · 10:15p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 12 mph out 64°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:15p

+5 ↑

8:15p

+4 ↑

9:15p

+4 ↑

10:15p

+3 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +6

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 24 · vs Roupp ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 15 · vs Freeland → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Landen Roupp RHP · SF

leak 66

0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman — C ●●●●○

2 Mickey Moniak — D ●●●○○

3 Willi Castro — D ●●○○○

FADE Kyle Freeland LHP · COL

leak 9

1.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers — C ●●○○○

2 Jung Hoo Lee — D ●●○○○

3 Willy Adames — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Roupp — 0.290 · 90.6 · 8.7% 20.0% 27.9% F B O C 56

· SF Rafael Devers vs Freeland — 0.223 · 92.6 · 10.7% 16.7% 13.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Roupp Edge — 0.278 · 89.3 · 7.0% 18.2% 17.6% F B O D 48

· COL Willi Castro vs Roupp Edge — 0.159 · 87.6 · 6.3% 20.0% 11.2% F B O D 36

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Freeland — 0.144 · 86.9 · 5.2% 16.7% 8.5% F B O D 34

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Freeland Edge — 0.189 · 87.2 · 9.3% 8.3% 10.1% F B O D 44

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Roupp — 0.126 · 87.4 · 5.4% 11.1% 6.9% F B O D 30

· SF Bryce Eldridge COOL vs Freeland — 0.185 · 92.0 · 11.2% 9.1% 8.2% F B O D 47

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Freeland — 0.124 · 86.2 · 6.3% 10.0% 5.4% F B O D 32

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Roupp Edge — 0.205 · 85.1 · 4.8% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 35

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.159 · 83.9 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 29

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.105 · 89.6 · 2.9% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.9% ← leak BRK 26.0% OFF 21.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Hunter Goodman R

19.3% 15.6% 9.4% 16.8% C 56 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.6% 21.7% 2.0% 10.5% D 48 —

147

Willi Castro S Edge

11.4% 5.9% 5.5% 8.6% D 36 —

154

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.2% 1.3% 6.1% 5.0% D 35 —

182

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.2% 6.8% 7.4% 6.5% D 30 —

186

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.3% 1.9% 5.5% 4.3% D 29 —

196

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 1.9% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.9% usage) carries Roupp's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.0% ← leak BRK 32.2% OFF 13.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L

12.3% 9.9% 8.1% 10.9% C 52 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Bryce Eldridge L

12.3% 7.7% 16.1% 12.0% D 47 —

103

Willy Adames R Edge

7.5% 8.4% 13.8% 8.3% D 44 —

164

Jung Hoo Lee L

2.8% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% D 34 —

172

Drew Gilbert L

4.7% 4.3% 0.0% 3.8% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.0% usage) carries Freeland's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Castro Devers

Legend

attack side — vs Roupp fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Hunter Goodman — · 56

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.85× Wind 12 mph out 64°F open

↑

11 mph · out

65°F

7:15p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

63°F

8:15p

↑

9 mph · out

62°F

9:15p

↑

9 mph · out

61°F

10:15p

↑

8 mph · out

60°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 64°F, wind 12 mph W (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Landen Roupp · RHP 0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 56 C — · 29 0.290 90.6 8.7% 39.7%vs RHP 410 23.8% 20.0% 27.9% 28

2 Mickey Moniak 48 D — · 78 0.278 89.3 7.0% 24.3%vs RHP 417 17.5% 18.2% 17.6% 31

3 Willi Castro 36 D — WARM 147 0.159 87.6 6.3% 17.2%vs RHP 411 11.0% 20.0% 11.2% 29

4 Jake Mccarthy 35 D — · 154 0.205 85.1 4.8% 15.8%vs RHP 416 12.5% 0.0% 12.6% 49

5 Ezequiel Tovar 30 D — COOL 182 0.126 87.4 5.4% 15.0%vs RHP 408 7.7% 11.1% 6.9% 27

6 Tj Rumfield 29 D — COOL 186 0.159 83.9 4.5% 15.2%vs RHP 410 6.2% 0.0% 7.8% 39

7 Troy Johnston 23 D — COOL 196 0.105 89.6 2.9% 7.0%vs RHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 5.7% 14

vs Kyle Freeland · LHP 1.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 52 C — WARM 51 0.223 92.6 10.7% 11.4%vs LHP 398 17.8% 16.7% 13.7% 29

2 Bryce Eldridge 47 D — COOL 83 0.185 92.0 11.2% 11.8%vs LHP 399 18.5% 9.1% 8.2% 28

3 Willy Adames 44 D — COOL 103 0.189 87.2 9.3% 11.1%vs LHP 387 14.5% 8.3% 10.1% 31

4 Jung Hoo Lee 34 D — WARM 164 0.144 86.9 5.2% 10.0%vs LHP 382 6.4% 16.7% 8.5% 44

5 Drew Gilbert 32 D — WARM 172 0.124 86.2 6.3% 7.6% 399 4.2% 10.0% 5.4% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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