TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.99×

KC @ CLE

Progressive Field · 4:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Hourly window

+5 ↑

4:10p

+4 ↑

5:10p

+5 ↑

6:10p

+4 ↑

7:10p

+3 ↑

8:10p

best window is early — 4:10p at +5

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 21 · vs Griffin ⟷ Angel Martinez conv 6 · vs IV → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 77

1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +575 C ●●●○○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino +700 D ●●●○○

3 Jac Caglianone +400 C ●●○○○

FADE Daniel Lynch IV LHP · KC

leak 9

0.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · stingy — thin edge

1 Angel Martinez +700 D ●○○○○

2 Chase Delauter +625 D ●○○○○

3 Jose Ramirez +425 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: Match 19.9% · 14D pace 10.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Carter Jensen vs Griffin +575 0.186 · 91.0 · 9.8% 27.3% 13.9% F B O C 52

· — Jac Caglianone ✶ vs Griffin +400 0.218 · 93.1 · 11.4% 10.0% 19.9% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· — Vinnie Pasquantino vs Griffin +700 0.138 · 89.6 · 8.2% 27.3% 9.2% F B O D 44

· — Nick Loftin vs Griffin +850 0.147 · 87.1 · 6.0% 9.1% 9.5% F B O D 39

· — Bobby Witt vs Griffin — 0.170 · 92.3 · 10.2% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 46

· CLE Angel Martinez vs IV +700 0.178 · 87.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 38

· — Salvador Perez vs Griffin +525 0.149 · 88.7 · 9.4% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 41

· CLE Chase Delauter vs IV +625 0.162 · 91.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 38

· CLE Jose Ramirez vs IV +425 0.142 · 89.4 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 34

· — Isaac Collins vs Griffin +850 0.118 · 88.8 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 37

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs IV — 0.118 · 90.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 36

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs IV — 0.130 · 88.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 35

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs IV +850 0.118 · 86.8 · 4.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 32

· CLE Steven Kwan vs IV — 0.059 · 83.8 · 1.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Daniel Lynch IV — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Foster Griffin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Jensen Pasquantino

Legend

attack side — vs Griffin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 4:10p · roof unknown

Park 0.99× Wind unknown — unknown

↑

7 mph · slight_out

79°F

4:10p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

79°F

5:10p

↑

5 mph · out

76°F

6:10p

↑

4 mph · out

74°F

7:10p

↑

3 mph · out

71°F

8:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.99× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Daniel Lynch IV · LHP 0.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 38 D +700 · 148 0.178 87.5 7.0% 18.2%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 0

2 Chase Delauter 38 D +625 · 149 0.162 91.3 6.4% 12.5%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0

3 Patrick Bailey 36 D — · 168 0.118 90.5 6.7% 12.5%vs LHP 409 6.5% 0.0% 8.5% 0

4 Travis Bazzana 35 D — · 174 0.130 88.0 5.5% 8.7%vs LHP 396 9.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0

5 Jose Ramirez 34 D +425 · 184 0.142 89.4 5.6% 17.2%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0

6 Brayan Rocchio 32 D +850 · 202 0.118 86.8 4.5% 8.6%vs LHP 384 7.1% 0.0% 8.0% 0

7 Steven Kwan 21 D — · 227 0.059 83.8 1.8% 0.0%vs LHP 372 1.6% 0.0% 6.8% 0

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 57 C +400 · 22 0.218 93.1 11.4% 29.2%vs LHP 416 15.3% 10.0% 19.9% 0

2 Carter Jensen 52 C +575 · 50 0.186 91.0 9.8% 12.0%vs LHP 396 15.9% 27.3% 13.9% 0

3 Bobby Witt 46 D — · 78 0.170 92.3 10.2% 16.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 44 D +700 · 104 0.138 89.6 8.2% 5.3%vs LHP 398 10.3% 27.3% 9.2% 0

5 Salvador Perez 41 D +525 · 122 0.149 88.7 9.4% 12.2%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0

6 Nick Loftin 39 D +850 · 140 0.147 87.1 6.0% 3.7%vs LHP 394 8.7% 9.1% 9.5% 0

7 Isaac Collins 37 D +850 · 162 0.118 88.8 7.1% 7.4%vs LHP 394 5.4% 0.0% 9.1% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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