TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.19×

MIA @ WSH

Nationals Park · 4:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.19× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Hourly window

+8 ↑

4:05p

+9 ↑

5:05p

+8 ↑

6:05p

+8 ↑

7:05p

+7 ↑

8:05p

best window is early — 5:05p at +9

Best of game Jakob Marsee conv 18 · vs Cavalli ⟷ Keibert Ruiz conv 21 · vs Alcantara → edge: Cj Abrams

ATTACK Cade Cavalli RHP · WSH

leak 66

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jakob Marsee +850 D ●●●○○

2 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +500 C ●●○○○

FADE Sandy Alcantara RHP · MIA

leak 22

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · stingy — thin edge

1 Keibert Ruiz +625 D ●●●○○

2 Daylen Lile +525 D ●●●○○

3 Cj Abrams +390 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cj Abrams: Match 23.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Cj Abrams ✶ vs Alcantara +390 0.243 · 89.4 · 7.4% 0.0% 23.8% F B O C 55

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Cavalli +500 0.226 · 91.4 · 10.0% 0.0% 22.8% F B O C 51

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Cavalli +370 0.216 · 92.2 · 9.5% 0.0% 21.8% F B O C 54

· MIA Owen Caissie vs Cavalli +625 0.197 · 91.2 · 10.3% 0.0% 20.6% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Alcantara +625 0.172 · 88.2 · 5.1% 28.6% 13.4% F B O D 45

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Alcantara +525 0.172 · 88.5 · 6.9% 23.1% 14.2% F B O D 48

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Cavalli +850 0.114 · 87.2 · 5.1% 25.0% 11.1% F B O D 38

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Cavalli — 0.140 · 86.9 · 4.1% 20.0% 11.2% F B O D 38

· WSH Jacob Young vs Alcantara — 0.150 · 87.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 41

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Alcantara +575 0.146 · 90.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 45

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Cavalli +850 0.136 · 89.2 · 6.9% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 40

· MIA Xavier Edwards vs Cavalli — 0.096 · 86.8 · 5.0% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 33

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Alcantara — 0.034 · 85.1 · 1.3% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cade Cavalli — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Sandy Alcantara — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Sanoja Marsee Abrams Lile Ruiz

Legend

attack side — vs Cavalli fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 4:05p · roof unknown

Park 1.19× Wind unknown — unknown

↑

6 mph · slight_out

81°F

4:05p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

82°F

5:05p · peak

↑

6 mph · slight_out

81°F

6:05p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

80°F

7:05p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

80°F

8:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cade Cavalli · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 54 C +370 · 36 0.216 92.2 9.5% 23.1%vs RHP 396 13.0% 0.0% 21.8% 0

2 Owen Caissie 52 C +625 · 46 0.197 91.2 10.3% 26.5%vs RHP 398 13.9% 0.0% 20.6% 0

3 Heriberto Hernández 51 C +500 · 51 0.226 91.4 10.0% 23.4%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 22.8% 0

4 Otto Lopez 40 D +850 · 130 0.136 89.2 6.9% 9.5%vs RHP 402 6.2% 0.0% 11.4% 0

5 Javier Sanoja 38 D — · 151 0.140 86.9 4.1% 6.7%vs RHP 378 6.7% 20.0% 11.2% 0

6 Jakob Marsee 38 D +850 · 152 0.114 87.2 5.1% 10.0%vs RHP 381 7.6% 25.0% 11.1% 0

7 Xavier Edwards 33 D — · 192 0.096 86.8 5.0% 2.6%vs RHP 396 3.8% 0.0% 9.7% 0

vs Sandy Alcantara · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams ✶ 55 C +390 · 29 0.243 89.4 7.4% 28.1%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 23.8% 0

2 Daylen Lile 48 D +525 · 67 0.172 88.5 6.9% 14.0%vs RHP 401 11.7% 23.1% 14.2% 0

3 Dylan Crews 45 D +575 · 93 0.146 90.5 7.3% 11.9%vs RHP 407 14.3% 0.0% 11.8% 0

4 Keibert Ruiz 45 D +625 · 96 0.172 88.2 5.1% 9.7%vs RHP 377 10.9% 28.6% 13.4% 0

5 Jacob Young 41 D — · 123 0.150 87.8 5.8% 12.3%vs RHP 399 7.2% 0.0% 12.1% 0

6 Nasim Nunez 22 D — · 224 0.034 85.1 1.3% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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