TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.94×

SEA @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 3:07p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Hourly window

+9 ↑

3:07p

+9 ↑

4:07p

+9 ↑

5:07p

+8 ↑

6:07p

+7 ↑

7:07p

best window is early — 3:07p at +9

Best of game Nathan Lukes conv 22 · vs Anderson ⟷ Cal Raleigh conv 24 · vs Soriano → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Kade Anderson LHP

leak 91

3.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nathan Lukes — D ●●●○○

2 Kazuma Okamoto +425 C ●●●○○

3 George Springer +525 D ●●●○○

FADE José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 55

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cal Raleigh +370 D ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +625 D ●●●○○

3 Cole Young +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 17.6% · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Anderson +425 0.207 · 90.4 · 10.9% 25.0% 17.6% F B O C 56

· — Dominic Canzone vs Soriano +525 0.221 · 91.2 · 10.0% 9.1% 17.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Cal Raleigh vs Soriano +370 0.175 · 89.6 · 10.6% 36.4% 12.4% F B O D 49

· — Nathan Lukes vs Anderson — 0.118 · 86.9 · 4.8% 33.3% 11.1% F B O D 37

· — Randy Arozarena vs Soriano +625 0.188 · 90.7 · 7.8% 25.0% 15.1% F B O D 47

· — George Springer vs Anderson +525 0.155 · 88.2 · 7.8% 25.0% 11.8% F B O D 44

· — Cole Young vs Soriano +850 0.141 · 88.6 · 6.1% 18.2% 10.3% F B O D 38

· — Julio Rodríguez vs Soriano +525 0.160 · 89.9 · 8.8% 8.3% 12.0% F B O D 44

· — J.P. Crawford vs Soriano +950 0.131 · 87.7 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 33

· — Andres Gimenez vs Anderson +950 0.116 · 85.8 · 5.5% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 32

· — Jesús Sánchez vs Anderson — 0.164 · 90.8 · 10.1% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 45

· — Ernie Clement vs Anderson +950 0.115 · 84.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 32

· — Vladimir Guerrero vs Anderson — 0.091 · 90.0 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 33

· — Myles Straw vs Anderson — 0.118 · 85.8 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 33

· — Josh Naylor vs Soriano +750 0.099 · 87.3 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Kade Anderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for José Soriano — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Lukes Canzone Raleigh Arozarena Young

Legend

attack side — vs Anderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 3:07p · roof unknown

Park 0.94× Wind unknown — unknown

↑

12 mph · out

73°F

3:07p · peak

↑

12 mph · out

75°F

4:07p

↑

13 mph · out

76°F

5:07p

↑

13 mph · out

75°F

6:07p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

75°F

7:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kade Anderson · LHP 3.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 56 C +425 · 28 0.207 90.4 10.9% 20.6%vs LHP 400 17.7% 25.0% 17.6% 0

2 Jesús Sánchez 45 D — · 92 0.164 90.8 10.1% 0.0%vs LHP 398 9.6% 0.0% 10.0% 0

3 George Springer 44 D +525 · 103 0.155 88.2 7.8% 12.0%vs LHP 395 11.7% 25.0% 11.8% 0

4 Nathan Lukes 37 D — · 164 0.118 86.9 4.8% 20.0%vs LHP 382 8.7% 33.3% 11.1% 0

5 Vladimir Guerrero 33 D — · 194 0.091 90.0 7.7% 8.3%vs LHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0

6 Myles Straw 33 D — · 196 0.118 85.8 5.5% 5.3%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 0

7 Andres Gimenez 32 D +950 · 198 0.116 85.8 5.5% 13.3%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0

8 Ernie Clement 32 D +950 · 200 0.115 84.3 4.5% 9.5%vs LHP 376 7.1% 0.0% 9.6% 0

vs José Soriano · RHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 51 C +525 · 52 0.221 91.2 10.0% 25.4%vs RHP 404 15.6% 9.1% 17.6% 0

2 Cal Raleigh 49 D +370 · 60 0.175 89.6 10.6% 15.8%vs RHP 387 14.8% 36.4% 12.4% 0

3 Randy Arozarena 47 D +625 · 73 0.188 90.7 7.8% 26.3%vs RHP 386 14.6% 25.0% 15.1% 0

4 Julio Rodríguez 44 D +525 · 101 0.160 89.9 8.8% 19.7%vs RHP 404 16.2% 8.3% 12.0% 0

5 Cole Young 38 D +850 · 155 0.141 88.6 6.1% 18.2%vs RHP 383 11.7% 18.2% 10.3% 0

6 J.P. Crawford 33 D +950 · 190 0.131 87.7 7.1% 24.3%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0

7 Josh Naylor 31 D +750 · 207 0.099 87.3 6.0% 11.3%vs RHP 392 6.3% 0.0% 8.8% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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