TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ TB

Playable air · 1.07×

SD @ TB

Tropicana Field · 4:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 12 · vs Buehler ⟷ Jackson Merrill conv 20 · vs Martinez → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 55

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +280 C+ ●●○○○

2 Cedric Mullins +750 D ●●○○○

3 Jonathan Aranda +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 17

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Merrill +575 C ●●●○○

2 Gavin Sheets +625 D ●●○○○

3 Ty France +500 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Martinez +575 0.177 · 90.7 · 9.0% 25.0% 14.2% F B O C 53

· SD Ty France vs Martinez +500 0.216 · 91.9 · 8.3% 8.3% 18.7% F B O C 54

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Buehler +280 0.248 · 93.0 · 10.1% 0.0% 25.0% F B O C+ 63

· SD Manny Machado vs Martinez +425 0.189 · 90.4 · 8.3% 8.3% 16.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Martinez +625 0.178 · 87.4 · 7.1% 12.5% 15.8% F B O D 47

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Buehler +750 0.143 · 87.8 · 5.8% 10.0% 11.8% F B O D 43

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Buehler +525 0.141 · 91.1 · 8.7% 8.3% 11.4% F B O D 47

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs Martinez +750 0.078 · 87.1 · 4.9% 8.3% 8.9% F B O D 34

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Buehler +575 0.158 · 90.7 · 7.4% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 43

· TB Jonny Deluca vs Buehler +750 0.164 · 85.7 · 5.4% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 40

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Martinez — 0.161 · 92.9 · 9.4% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 45

· TB Nick Fortes vs Buehler — 0.100 · 85.2 · 4.2% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 35

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Martinez +700 0.106 · 89.0 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 39

· TB Richie Palacios vs Buehler +950 0.109 · 86.1 · 5.3% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 37

· SD Freddy Fermin vs Martinez +750 0.114 · 87.4 · 5.1% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· TB Taylor Walls vs Buehler — 0.074 · 85.5 · 4.0% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 31

· TB Chandler Simpson vs Buehler — 0.053 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Nick Martinez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Walker Buehler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Merrill Sheets Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Buehler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 4:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 54 C +500 · 33 0.216 91.9 8.3% 27.5%vs RHP 394 15.2% 8.3% 18.7% 0

2 Jackson Merrill 53 C +575 · 45 0.177 90.7 9.0% 20.4%vs RHP 412 16.5% 25.0% 14.2% 0

3 Manny Machado 52 C +425 · 47 0.189 90.4 8.3% 26.3%vs RHP 397 17.1% 8.3% 16.2% 0

4 Gavin Sheets 47 D +625 · 70 0.178 87.4 7.1% 29.8%vs RHP 395 10.3% 12.5% 15.8% 0

5 Fernando Tatis 45 D — · 89 0.161 92.9 9.4% 13.9%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 0

6 Xander Bogaerts 39 D +700 · 139 0.106 89.0 6.7% 15.9%vs RHP 400 7.9% 0.0% 9.9% 0

7 Freddy Fermin 36 D +750 · 166 0.114 87.4 5.1% 6.5%vs RHP 382 2.4% 0.0% 8.6% 0

8 Jake Cronenworth 34 D +750 · 187 0.078 87.1 4.9% 8.6%vs RHP 392 2.3% 8.3% 8.9% 0

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 63 C+ +280 · 10 0.248 93.0 10.1% 37.8%vs RHP 413 24.4% 0.0% 25.0% 0

2 Jonathan Aranda 47 D +525 · 75 0.141 91.1 8.7% 15.5%vs RHP 386 11.2% 8.3% 11.4% 0

3 Yandy Diaz 43 D +575 · 105 0.158 90.7 7.4% 25.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 0

4 Cedric Mullins 43 D +750 · 108 0.143 87.8 5.8% 17.3%vs RHP 387 12.3% 10.0% 11.8% 0

5 Jonny Deluca 40 D +750 · 127 0.164 85.7 5.4% 22.2%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 0

6 Richie Palacios 37 D +950 · 160 0.109 86.1 5.3% 10.9%vs RHP 398 4.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0

7 Nick Fortes 35 D — · 172 0.100 85.2 4.2% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 10.4% 0

8 Taylor Walls 31 D — · 208 0.074 85.5 4.0% 2.4%vs RHP 383 0.9% 0.0% 8.5% 0

9 Chandler Simpson 21 D — · 226 0.053 83.8 — 2.4%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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