TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ NYM

Suppressed air · 0.94×

HOU @ NYM

Citi Field · 4:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Hourly window

+0 ↑

4:10p

+2 ↑

5:10p

+3 ↑

6:10p

+4 ↑

7:10p

+5 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 8:10p window peaks +5

Best of game Jeremy Peña conv 23 · vs McLean ⟷ Carson Benge conv 17 · vs Sousa → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 55

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jeremy Peña +850 D ●●●●○

2 Isaac Paredes +625 D ●●○○○

3 Yainer Diaz — D ●●○○○

FADE Bennett Sousa LHP

leak 11

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.81 · stingy — thin edge

1 Carson Benge +525 D ●●●○○

2 Bo Bichette +625 D ●●○○○

3 Francisco Lindor +400 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: Match 19.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ vs McLean +290 0.291 · 94.5 · 10.6% 0.0% 19.7% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs McLean +850 0.195 · 88.2 · 6.5% 30.0% 16.5% F B O D 46

· — Carson Benge vs Sousa +525 0.147 · 89.1 · 8.3% 25.0% 9.9% F B O D 43

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs McLean +625 0.164 · 85.9 · 5.8% 16.7% 11.9% F B O D 39

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs McLean — 0.157 · 88.0 · 6.1% 14.3% 12.8% F B O D 39

· — Bo Bichette vs Sousa +625 0.129 · 89.6 · 7.6% 18.2% 8.9% F B O D 39

· HOU Christian Walker vs McLean +525 0.208 · 89.3 · 7.8% 9.1% 16.8% F B O D 48

· HOU Cam Smith vs McLean +850 0.173 · 89.2 · 8.6% 11.1% 13.0% F B O D 44

· — Francisco Lindor vs Sousa +400 0.186 · 91.0 · 9.3% 8.3% 12.6% F B O D 46

· HOU Jose Altuve vs McLean +850 0.151 · 85.4 · 5.6% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 32

· — Francisco Alvarez vs Sousa +475 0.164 · 90.0 · 11.9% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 42

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs McLean — 0.127 · 85.9 · 3.9% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 29

· — Jared Young vs Sousa +525 0.171 · 90.0 · 8.3% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 41

· — Marcus Semien vs Sousa +575 0.133 · 86.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 37

· — A.J. Ewing vs Sousa +625 0.115 · 89.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 34

· — Brett Baty vs Sousa +525 0.116 · 90.0 · 9.1% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Nolan McLean — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Bennett Sousa — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Peña Paredes Diaz Benge Bichette

Legend

attack side — vs McLean fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 4:10p · roof unknown

Park 0.94× Wind unknown — unknown

↑

4 mph · slight_out

76°F

4:10p

↑

4 mph · out

76°F

5:10p

↑

5 mph · out

74°F

6:10p

↑

6 mph · out

72°F

7:10p

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

8:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 54 C +290 · 32 0.291 94.5 10.6% 25.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 0

2 Christian Walker 48 D +525 · 64 0.208 89.3 7.8% 26.0%vs RHP 391 17.6% 9.1% 16.8% 0

3 Jeremy Peña 46 D +850 · 86 0.195 88.2 6.5% 30.6%vs RHP 384 16.2% 30.0% 16.5% 0

4 Cam Smith 44 D +850 · 100 0.173 89.2 8.6% 19.3%vs RHP 408 12.7% 11.1% 13.0% 0

5 Isaac Paredes 39 D +625 · 138 0.164 85.9 5.8% 17.0%vs RHP 377 11.7% 16.7% 11.9% 0

6 Yainer Diaz 39 D — · 142 0.157 88.0 6.1% 26.5%vs RHP 392 10.6% 14.3% 12.8% 0

7 Jose Altuve 32 D +850 · 199 0.151 85.4 5.6% 20.4%vs RHP 378 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0

8 Christian Vazquez 29 D — · 213 0.127 85.9 3.9% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0

vs Bennett Sousa · LHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.81 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 46 D +400 · 80 0.186 91.0 9.3% 18.5%vs LHP 397 12.9% 8.3% 12.6% 0

2 Carson Benge 43 D +525 · 110 0.147 89.1 8.3% 18.5%vs LHP 396 10.9% 25.0% 9.9% 0

3 Francisco Alvarez 42 D +475 · 112 0.164 90.0 11.9% 16.7%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0

4 Jared Young 41 D +525 · 125 0.171 90.0 8.3% 0.0%vs LHP 400 7.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0

5 Bo Bichette 39 D +625 · 146 0.129 89.6 7.6% 18.5%vs LHP 385 10.0% 18.2% 8.9% 0

6 Marcus Semien 37 D +575 · 158 0.133 86.5 7.6% 11.1%vs LHP 391 10.9% 0.0% 8.1% 0

7 Brett Baty 37 D +525 · 159 0.116 90.0 9.1% 0.0%vs LHP 397 6.8% 0.0% 6.5% 0

8 A.J. Ewing 34 D +625 · 186 0.115 89.2 8.2% 11.8%vs LHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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