TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.80×

PIT @ STL

Busch Stadium · 2:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.80× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Hourly window

-4 ↑

1:15p

-4 ↑

2:15p

-5 ↑

3:15p

-5 ↑

4:15p

-6 ↑

5:15p

best window is early — 1:15p at -4

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 22 · vs Bachar ⟷ Oneil Cruz conv 27 · vs Leahy → edge: Oneil Cruz

ATTACK Lake Bachar RHP · MIA

leak 65

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker +500 C ●●●○○

2 Nolan Gorman +575 D ●●●○○

3 Alec Burleson +500 D ●●○○○

FADE Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 39

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · stingy — thin edge

1 Oneil Cruz +425 C ●●●●○

2 Brandon Lowe +390 D ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +625 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Oneil Cruz: Match 17.2% · 14D pace 37.5% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Oneil Cruz ✶ vs Leahy +425 0.229 · 95.9 · 13.1% 37.5% 17.2% F B O C 55

· — Jordan Walker vs Bachar +500 0.216 · 92.5 · 10.8% 28.6% 15.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· — Nolan Gorman vs Bachar +575 0.134 · 89.2 · 9.4% 33.3% 8.3% F B O D 39

· — Alec Burleson vs Bachar +500 0.192 · 92.0 · 9.8% 15.4% 12.8% F B O D 47

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Leahy +390 0.221 · 91.1 · 10.7% 10.0% 14.6% F B O D 48

· — Nathan Church vs Bachar +950 0.131 · 85.7 · 7.4% 11.1% 8.0% F B O D 35

· — José Fermín vs Bachar +750 0.121 · 86.3 · 4.7% 11.1% 7.1% F B O D 30

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Leahy +625 0.162 · 90.5 · 10.3% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 39

· — Ivan Herrera vs Bachar +750 0.133 · 89.2 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 31

· PIT Spencer Horwitz vs Leahy +750 0.140 · 86.8 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 33

· — Jj Wetherholt vs Bachar +700 0.131 · 89.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 35

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Leahy +950 0.089 · 86.0 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 24

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Leahy +900 0.088 · 85.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 23

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Leahy — 0.065 · 86.9 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Kyle Leahy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Lake Bachar — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Walker Burleson Gorman

Legend

attack side — vs Bachar fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 1:15p · roof unknown

Park 0.80× Wind unknown — unknown

-4

↑

8 mph · slight_out

81°F

1:15p · peak

-4

↑

8 mph · slight_out

84°F

2:15p

-5

↑

9 mph · cross

86°F

3:15p

-5

↑

9 mph · cross

87°F

4:15p

-6

↑

9 mph · cross

86°F

5:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.80× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz ✶ 55 C +425 · 31 0.229 95.9 13.1% 38.9%vs RHP 413 25.0% 37.5% 17.2% 0

2 Brandon Lowe 48 D +390 · 64 0.221 91.1 10.7% 25.6%vs RHP 391 16.5% 10.0% 14.6% 0

3 Bryan Reynolds 39 D +625 · 139 0.162 90.5 10.3% 15.5%vs RHP 409 10.6% 0.0% 9.5% 0

4 Spencer Horwitz 33 D +750 · 197 0.140 86.8 8.1% 15.2%vs RHP 395 9.5% 0.0% 8.2% 0

5 Nick Gonzales 24 D +950 · 226 0.089 86.0 5.0% 10.0%vs RHP 397 6.3% 0.0% 7.1% 0

6 Jake Mangum 23 D +900 · 227 0.088 85.3 4.5% 10.0%vs RHP 393 4.5% 0.0% 7.1% 0

7 Jared Triolo 22 D — · 231 0.065 86.9 4.7% 8.7%vs RHP 407 1.4% 0.0% 7.0% 0

vs Lake Bachar · RHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 53 C +500 · 44 0.216 92.5 10.8% 26.8%vs RHP 406 17.9% 28.6% 15.1% 0

2 Alec Burleson 47 D +500 · 71 0.192 92.0 9.8% 21.9%vs RHP 405 14.7% 15.4% 12.8% 0

3 Nolan Gorman 39 D +575 · 151 0.134 89.2 9.4% 16.7%vs RHP 405 9.8% 33.3% 8.3% 0

4 Jj Wetherholt 35 D +700 · 176 0.131 89.9 8.1% 15.3%vs RHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 8.0% 0

5 Nathan Church 35 D +950 · 182 0.131 85.7 7.4% 15.1%vs RHP 386 8.6% 11.1% 8.0% 0

6 Ivan Herrera 31 D +750 · 210 0.133 89.2 6.9% 17.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0

7 José Fermín 30 D +750 · 216 0.121 86.3 4.7% 6.9%vs RHP 390 6.3% 11.1% 7.1% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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