TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ LAA

Suppressed air · 0.84×

PHI @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 10:07p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:07p

+4 ↑

8:07p

+4 ↑

9:07p

+4 ↑

10:07p

+3 ↑

11:07p

best window is early — 7:07p at +6

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 24 · vs Johnson ⟷ Zach Neto conv 15 · vs Sánchez → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 80

2.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber +174 C+ ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +320 C ●●●○○

3 Alec Bohm +575 D ●○○○○

FADE Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 70

0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zach Neto +625 D ●●○○○

2 Vaughn Grissom +950 D ●○○○○

3 Josh Lowe — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 22.1% · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Johnson +174 0.288 · 92.7 · 13.2% 25.0% 22.1% F B O C+ 67

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Johnson +320 0.240 · 90.4 · 10.7% 16.7% 20.2% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· LAA Zach Neto vs Sánchez +625 0.195 · 89.6 · 9.2% 16.7% 12.9% F B O D 42

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Johnson +575 0.139 · 90.4 · 7.5% 9.1% 9.2% F B O D 40

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Johnson +575 0.146 · 89.2 · 7.5% 9.1% 9.0% F B O D 39

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Sánchez +950 0.141 · 87.8 · 7.1% 8.3% 7.7% F B O D 31

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Sánchez — 0.147 · 88.7 · 7.6% 8.3% 7.4% F B O D 33

· LAA Mike Trout vs Sánchez +525 0.192 · 90.0 · 10.8% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 42

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Johnson +525 0.158 · 89.4 · 9.2% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 43

· PHI Trea Turner vs Johnson +575 0.141 · 88.4 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 40

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Sánchez — 0.123 · 87.4 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 28

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Johnson +625 0.131 · 89.9 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 34

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Johnson — 0.086 · 87.1 · 3.6% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Ryan Johnson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Cristopher Sánchez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Neto

Legend

attack side — vs Johnson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber +174 · 67

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 7:07p · roof unknown

Park 0.84× Wind unknown — unknown

↑

9 mph · out

84°F

7:07p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

81°F

8:07p

↑

8 mph · out

79°F

9:07p

↑

8 mph · out

78°F

10:07p

↑

7 mph · out

76°F

11:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.84× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 2.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 67 C+ +174 · 6 0.288 92.7 13.2% 43.8%vs RHP 403 23.2% 25.0% 22.1% 0

2 Bryce Harper 57 C +320 · 21 0.240 90.4 10.7% 35.4%vs RHP 402 19.2% 16.7% 20.2% 0

3 Brandon Marsh 43 D +525 · 109 0.158 89.4 9.2% 18.7%vs RHP 391 11.6% 0.0% 11.2% 0

4 Alec Bohm 40 D +575 · 129 0.139 90.4 7.5% 13.8%vs RHP 397 10.5% 9.1% 9.2% 0

5 Trea Turner 40 D +575 · 131 0.141 88.4 7.8% 18.9%vs RHP 392 12.7% 0.0% 10.0% 0

6 Bryson Stott 39 D +575 · 136 0.146 89.2 7.5% 8.6%vs RHP 385 7.3% 9.1% 9.0% 0

7 J.T. Realmuto 34 D +625 · 185 0.131 89.9 6.5% 18.6%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0

8 Justin Crawford 27 D — · 217 0.086 87.1 3.6% 4.2%vs RHP 382 2.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 42 D +525 · 113 0.192 90.0 10.8% 16.7%vs LHP 409 14.2% 0.0% 12.8% 0

2 Zach Neto 42 D +625 · 116 0.195 89.6 9.2% 15.8%vs LHP 404 15.6% 16.7% 12.9% 0

3 Josh Lowe 33 D — · 197 0.147 88.7 7.6% 0.0%vs LHP 392 9.8% 8.3% 7.4% 0

4 Vaughn Grissom 31 D +950 · 209 0.141 87.8 7.1% 3.9%vs LHP 389 8.8% 8.3% 7.7% 0

5 Oswald Peraza 28 D — · 215 0.123 87.4 7.1% 22.7%vs LHP 386 5.3% 0.0% 9.4% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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