TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ MIN

Neutral air · 1.04×

CWS @ MIN

Target Field · 2:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph cross 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

-9 ↑

1:10p

-9 ↑

2:10p

-9 ↑

3:10p

-9 ↑

4:10p

-9 ↑

5:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -9 FIT

Best of game Tristan Peters conv 31 · vs Ober ⟷ Brooks Lee conv 30 · vs Fedde → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Bailey Ober RHP · MIN

leak 80

1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tristan Peters — C ●●●●●

2 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●○○

3 Colson Montgomery — C ●●●○○

FADE Erick Fedde RHP · CWS

leak 27

1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brooks Lee — C ●●●●●

2 Kody Clemens — C ●●●○○

3 Trevor Larnach — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Ober Edge — 0.193 · 87.4 · 7.6% 41.7% 19.6% F B O C 50

· MIN Brooks Lee HOT vs Fedde Edge — 0.189 · 88.0 · 5.7% 41.7% 18.8% F B O C 50

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Ober Edge — 0.284 · 94.0 · 14.1% 15.4% 28.5% F B O C+ 67

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs Ober Edge — 0.213 · 89.1 · 11.2% 18.2% 24.6% F B O C 58

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Fedde Edge — 0.222 · 92.4 · 9.8% 18.2% 15.5% F B O C 56

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Ober — 0.246 · 90.6 · 11.9% 15.4% 16.6% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CWS Jake Rogers vs Ober — 0.144 · 88.5 · 10.3% 16.7% 12.8% F B O D 45

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Fedde Edge — 0.156 · 87.7 · 7.8% 12.5% 8.5% F B O D 43

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Fedde Edge — 0.170 · 89.7 · 8.9% 9.1% 9.7% F B O D 47

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Ober Edge — 0.139 · 89.0 · 6.6% 8.3% 8.5% F B O D 39

· MIN Luke Keaschall HOT vs Fedde — 0.110 · 85.4 · 5.4% 8.3% 8.4% F B O D 35

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Fedde — 0.168 · 89.8 · 9.5% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 47

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Ober Edge — 0.175 · 88.9 · 9.0% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 45

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Ober Edge — 0.126 · 87.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Ober — 0.127 · 87.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 36

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Fedde Edge — 0.103 · 89.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 35.5% ← leak OFF 34.0% BRK 30.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

23.4% 15.4% 16.4% 20.0% C+ 67 —

Miguel Vargas R

16.5% 13.2% 10.7% 14.4% C+ 61 —

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.4% 15.2% 10.8% 12.5% C 58 —

Tristan Peters L Edge

7.3% 2.2% 4.5% 5.8% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

100

Jake Rogers R

13.1% 0.0% 5.9% 10.7% D 45 —

105

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

11.3% 5.2% 4.3% 8.2% D 45 —

166

Braden Montgomery S Edge

5.5% 3.9% 2.4% 4.4% D 39 —

191

Sam Antonacci L Edge

6.7% 0.0% 4.7% 5.3% D 37 —

204

Chase Meidroth R

4.2% 3.4% 5.5% 4.4% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (35.5% usage) carries Ober's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.7% ← leak BRK 37.1% OFF 12.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.3% 18.9% 10.9% 11.7% C 56 —

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.9% 0.0% 1.0% 4.1% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R

13.7% 6.6% 9.1% 11.1% D 47 —

Josh Bell S Edge

10.5% 11.8% 6.0% 9.7% D 47 —

128

Trevor Larnach L Edge

8.0% 8.6% 4.4% 7.5% D 43 —

195

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 11.4% 5.7% 6.5% D 37 —

210

Luke Keaschall R

4.5% 3.0% 0.0% 3.6% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.7% usage) carries Fedde's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Montgomery Peters Rogers Clemens Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Ober fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Tristan Peters — · 50

Brooks Lee — · 50

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph cross 81°F open

-9

↑

8 mph · in

78°F

1:10p · peak

-9

↑

8 mph · in

78°F

2:10p

-9

↑

8 mph · in

78°F

3:10p

-9

↑

8 mph · in

78°F

4:10p

-9

↑

8 mph · in

78°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 81°F, wind 6 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bailey Ober · RHP 1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 67 C+ — · 5 0.284 94.0 14.1% 39.0%vs RHP 404 19.0% 15.4% 28.5% 27

2 Miguel Vargas 61 C+ — · 14 0.246 90.6 11.9% 17.0%vs RHP 393 20.7% 15.4% 16.6% 35

3 Colson Montgomery 58 C — WARM 21 0.213 89.1 11.2% 25.3%vs RHP 398 21.8% 18.2% 24.6% 20

4 Tristan Peters 50 C — WARM 62 0.193 87.4 7.6% 14.9%vs RHP 377 12.5% 41.7% 19.6% 35

5 Jake Rogers 45 D — WARM 100 0.144 88.5 10.3% 9.5%vs RHP 382 10.0% 16.7% 12.8% 12

6 Andrew Benintendi 45 D — COOL 105 0.175 88.9 9.0% 16.5%vs RHP 388 12.6% 0.0% 10.8% 26

7 Braden Montgomery 39 D — · 166 0.139 89.0 6.6% 16.0%vs RHP 390 6.5% 8.3% 8.5% 38

8 Sam Antonacci 37 D — COOL 191 0.126 87.3 7.2% 12.5%vs RHP 390 8.4% 0.0% 7.6% 34

9 Chase Meidroth 36 D — COOL 204 0.127 87.7 6.6% 16.0%vs RHP 379 7.8% 0.0% 7.6% 41

vs Erick Fedde · RHP 1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 56 C — WARM 31 0.222 92.4 9.8% 19.1%vs RHP 391 17.0% 18.2% 15.5% 33

2 Brooks Lee 50 C — HOT 63 0.189 88.0 5.7% 22.4%vs RHP 372 17.1% 41.7% 18.8% 38

3 Royce Lewis 47 D — COOL 85 0.168 89.8 9.5% 15.8%vs RHP 400 14.3% 0.0% 11.6% 37

4 Josh Bell 47 D — COOL 89 0.170 89.7 8.9% 19.1%vs RHP 407 11.3% 9.1% 9.7% 35

5 Trevor Larnach 43 D — WARM 128 0.156 87.7 7.8% 16.1%vs RHP 395 9.7% 12.5% 8.5% 21

6 Victor Caratini 37 D — COOL 195 0.103 89.5 7.3% 16.2%vs RHP 404 6.1% 0.0% 7.2% 10

7 Luke Keaschall 35 D — HOT 210 0.110 85.4 5.4% 10.7%vs RHP 374 6.9% 8.3% 8.4% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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