TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ ATL

Playable air · 1.08×

COL @ ATL

Truist Park · 4:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Hourly window

-3 ↑

4:10p

-4 ↑

5:10p

-4 ↑

6:10p

-4 ↑

7:10p

-3 ↑

8:10p

the 4:10p window peaks -3

Best of game Matt Olson conv 20 · vs Feltner ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 37 · vs Pérez → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Ryan Feltner RHP · COL

leak 77

1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.71 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +265 B ●●●○○

2 Drake Baldwin +350 C+ ●●●○○

3 Michael Harris — C ●○○○○

FADE Martín Pérez LHP · ATL

leak 56

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Mickey Moniak +575 C ●●●○○

3 Willi Castro +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 24.8% · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Pérez +305 0.296 · 90.4 · 9.6% 50.0% 24.8% F B O C+ 68

· ATL Matt Olson vs Feltner +265 0.276 · 92.7 · 12.8% 15.4% 25.4% F B O B 74

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Pérez +575 0.262 · 89.7 · 7.6% 18.2% 20.7% F B O C 59

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Feltner +350 0.182 · 91.9 · 11.7% 15.4% 17.5% F B O C+ 61

· ATL Michael Harris vs Feltner — 0.193 · 90.5 · 10.6% 0.0% 18.2% F B O C 54

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Feltner — 0.173 · 90.2 · 11.6% 0.0% 16.2% F B O C 53

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Feltner +500 0.153 · 90.8 · 8.5% 0.0% 13.6% F B O C 50

· ATL Austin Riley vs Feltner +400 0.140 · 91.4 · 11.2% 0.0% 12.3% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Pérez +625 0.161 · 87.5 · 6.7% 15.4% 12.9% F B O D 47

· COL Troy Johnston vs Pérez — 0.118 · 89.6 · 3.7% 14.3% 9.7% F B O D 37

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Pérez +750 0.127 · 87.5 · 6.1% 10.0% 9.3% F B O D 41

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Pérez +950 0.185 · 85.0 · 5.2% 0.0% 17.3% F B O D 45

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Feltner +525 0.162 · 86.9 · 6.5% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 49

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Feltner — 0.124 · 87.7 · 7.6% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 46

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Pérez +950 0.151 · 84.0 · 5.0% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 40

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Feltner +850 0.122 · 86.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Martín Pérez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Ryan Feltner — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Castro Olson Baldwin

Legend

attack side — vs Feltner fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Hunter Goodman +305 · 68

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.08× Wind unknown — unknown

-3

↑

8 mph · in

81°F

4:10p · peak

-4

↑

9 mph · in

82°F

5:10p

-4

↑

8 mph · in

82°F

6:10p

-4

↑

8 mph · in

82°F

7:10p

-3

↑

7 mph · in

82°F

8:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Martín Pérez · LHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 68 C+ +305 · 4 0.296 90.4 9.6% 34.6%vs LHP 412 24.8% 50.0% 24.8% 0

2 Mickey Moniak 59 C +575 · 16 0.262 89.7 7.6% 17.6%vs LHP 415 17.4% 18.2% 20.7% 0

3 Willi Castro 47 D +625 · 74 0.161 87.5 6.7% 13.8%vs LHP 409 11.4% 15.4% 12.9% 0

4 Jake Mccarthy 45 D +950 · 90 0.185 85.0 5.2% 26.7%vs LHP 416 11.1% 0.0% 17.3% 0

5 Ezequiel Tovar 41 D +750 · 124 0.127 87.5 6.1% 6.1%vs LHP 409 7.8% 10.0% 9.3% 0

6 Tj Rumfield 40 D +950 · 128 0.151 84.0 5.0% 6.7%vs LHP 410 5.6% 0.0% 10.8% 0

7 Troy Johnston 37 D — · 163 0.118 89.6 3.7% 8.3%vs LHP 411 2.2% 14.3% 9.7% 0

vs Ryan Feltner · RHP 1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.71 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 74 B +265 · 1 0.276 92.7 12.8% 32.5%vs RHP 408 24.3% 15.4% 25.4% 0

2 Drake Baldwin 61 C+ +350 · 12 0.182 91.9 11.7% 25.0%vs RHP 402 16.5% 15.4% 17.5% 0

3 Michael Harris 54 C — · 34 0.193 90.5 10.6% 23.3%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 0

4 Ronald Acuna 53 C — · 42 0.173 90.2 11.6% 22.5%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 0

5 Austin Riley 53 C +400 · 43 0.140 91.4 11.2% 17.1%vs RHP 407 9.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0

6 Mike Yastrzemski 50 C +500 · 56 0.153 90.8 8.5% 18.0%vs RHP 389 8.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0

7 Ozzie Albies 49 D +525 · 59 0.162 86.9 6.5% 12.6%vs RHP 386 13.3% 0.0% 13.4% 0

8 Dominic Smith 46 D — · 84 0.124 87.7 7.6% 14.5%vs RHP 392 8.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0

9 Mauricio Dubon 41 D +850 · 120 0.122 86.6 6.3% 9.4%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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