TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.26×

BAL @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 10:05p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.26× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Hourly window

+21 ↑

7:05p

+20 ↑

8:05p

+18 ↑

9:05p

+16 ↑

10:05p

+13 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +21

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 37 · vs Perkins ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 14 · vs Baz → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Jack Perkins RHP · ATH

leak 75

1.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.64 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso +187 B ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo — C+ ●●●●○

3 Colton Cowser +360 C ●●●○○

FADE Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 10

0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof — C ●●○○○

2 Lawrence Butler +400 D ●●○○○

3 Carlos Cortes — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 28.1% · 14D pace 46.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Perkins +187 0.238 · 94.2 · 11.0% 46.2% 28.1% F B O B 73

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Perkins — 0.229 · 91.9 · 10.5% 27.3% 21.1% F B O C+ 65

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Perkins +360 0.148 · 87.8 · 9.7% 25.0% 15.6% F B O C 56

· ATH Zack Gelof vs Baz — 0.199 · 88.8 · 7.3% 9.1% 19.5% F B O C 53

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Perkins — 0.201 · 90.7 · 10.5% 0.0% 23.5% F B O C+ 60

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Perkins +265 0.172 · 89.7 · 7.7% 0.0% 17.5% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Baz +400 0.144 · 89.3 · 7.1% 15.4% 13.2% F B O D 46

· ATH Carlos Cortes vs Baz — 0.148 · 89.1 · 6.6% 9.1% 12.8% F B O D 44

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Perkins +450 0.133 · 88.2 · 6.1% 8.3% 13.0% F B O D 46

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Baz — 0.102 · 91.0 · 6.9% 7.7% 9.5% F B O D 42

· BAL Jackson Holliday vs Perkins — 0.123 · 87.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 45

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Baz — 0.097 · 86.6 · 3.5% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jack Perkins — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Shane Baz — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Cowser Gelof Butler

Legend

attack side — vs Perkins fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Alonso +187 · 73

Coby Mayo — · 65

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 7:05p · roof unknown

Park 1.26× Wind unknown — unknown

+21

↑

14 mph · out

74°F

7:05p · peak

+20

↑

13 mph · out

69°F

8:05p

+18

↑

12 mph · out

66°F

9:05p

+16

↑

11 mph · out

63°F

10:05p

+13

↑

10 mph · slight_out

60°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.26× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jack Perkins · RHP 1.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.64 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 73 B +187 · 2 0.238 94.2 11.0% 30.8%vs RHP 402 21.6% 46.2% 28.1% 0

2 Coby Mayo 65 C+ — · 8 0.229 91.9 10.5% 10.3%vs RHP 413 16.8% 27.3% 21.1% 0

3 Samuel Basallo 60 C+ — · 14 0.201 90.7 10.5% 30.0%vs RHP 399 15.0% 0.0% 23.5% 0

4 Colton Cowser 56 C +360 · 27 0.148 87.8 9.7% 20.0%vs RHP 414 15.7% 25.0% 15.6% 0

5 Gunnar Henderson 54 C +265 · 35 0.172 89.7 7.7% 17.5%vs RHP 391 14.4% 0.0% 17.5% 0

6 Leody Taveras 46 D +450 · 85 0.133 88.2 6.1% 14.5%vs RHP 403 5.2% 8.3% 13.0% 0

7 Jackson Holliday 45 D — · 91 0.123 87.1 7.3% 14.7%vs RHP 388 3.8% 0.0% 12.9% 0

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 53 C — · 38 0.199 88.8 7.3% 26.2%vs RHP 398 18.8% 9.1% 19.5% 0

2 Lawrence Butler 46 D +400 · 79 0.144 89.3 7.1% 20.0%vs RHP 410 8.7% 15.4% 13.2% 0

3 Carlos Cortes 44 D — · 99 0.148 89.1 6.6% 15.7%vs RHP 401 5.3% 9.1% 12.8% 0

4 Henry Bolte 42 D — · 114 0.102 91.0 6.9% 4.3%vs RHP 410 9.3% 7.7% 9.5% 0

5 Jeff Mcneil 35 D — · 170 0.097 86.6 3.5% 10.5%vs RHP 381 4.9% 0.0% 10.5% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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