TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.98×

LAD @ DET

Comerica Park · 1:10p · 10 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Hourly window

-7 ↑

1:10p

-7 ↑

2:10p

-7 ↑

3:10p

-6 ↑

4:10p

-5 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks -5

Best of game Max Muncy conv 35 · vs Montero ⟷ Dillon Dingler conv 6 · vs Snell → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Keider Montero RHP · DET

leak 43

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.43 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy +390 C ●●●●●

2 Shohei Ohtani +280 C ●●●○○

3 Mookie Betts +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Blake Snell LHP · LAD

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dillon Dingler +850 D ●○○○○

2 Spencer Torkelson +700 D ●○○○○

3 Kevin Mcgonigle +950 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 20.3% · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs Montero Edge +390 0.248 · 90.5 · 9.8% 50.0% 20.3% F B O C 59

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Montero +280 0.256 · 93.5 · 10.9% 16.7% 19.1% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Montero +700 0.168 · 90.0 · 7.3% 8.3% 11.6% F B O D 40

· DET Dillon Dingler vs Snell +850 0.226 · 88.4 · 6.1% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 42

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs Montero +625 0.158 · 89.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 39

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Montero +625 0.143 · 89.4 · 8.0% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 34

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Snell +700 0.185 · 89.3 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 38

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Montero +700 0.129 · 88.8 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 33

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Snell +950 0.144 · 88.2 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 31

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Snell +950 0.120 · 86.3 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Keider Montero — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Blake Snell — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Ohtani

Legend

attack side — vs Montero fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Max Muncy +390 · 59

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof unknown

Park 0.98× Wind unknown — unknown

-7

↑

10 mph · cross

75°F

1:10p

-7

↑

10 mph · cross

76°F

2:10p

-7

↑

11 mph · cross

78°F

3:10p

-6

↑

11 mph · cross

79°F

4:10p

-5

↑

10 mph · cross

80°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Keider Montero · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.43 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 59 C +390 · 17 0.248 90.5 9.8% 26.8%vs RHP 411 21.5% 50.0% 20.3% 0

2 Shohei Ohtani 57 C +280 · 20 0.256 93.5 10.9% 25.7%vs RHP 407 19.2% 16.7% 19.1% 0

3 Mookie Betts 40 D +700 · 132 0.168 90.0 7.3% 15.6%vs RHP 389 10.9% 8.3% 11.6% 0

4 Freddie Freeman 39 D +625 · 137 0.158 89.7 7.8% 13.9%vs RHP 398 9.9% 0.0% 10.7% 0

5 Teoscar Hernandez 34 D +625 · 183 0.143 89.4 8.0% 17.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0

6 Kyle Tucker 33 D +700 · 193 0.129 88.8 6.4% 10.6%vs RHP 392 7.2% 0.0% 8.4% 0

vs Blake Snell · LHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.12 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 42 D +850 · 115 0.226 88.4 6.1% 16.1%vs LHP 398 18.7% 0.0% 13.0% 0

2 Spencer Torkelson 38 D +700 · 153 0.185 89.3 6.8% 9.1%vs LHP 394 14.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0

3 Kevin Mcgonigle 31 D +950 · 205 0.144 88.2 5.2% 7.1%vs LHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0

4 Gleyber Torres 28 D +950 · 214 0.120 86.3 5.0% 11.1%vs LHP 393 9.2% 0.0% 7.0% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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