TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ SF

Suppressed air · 0.85×

AZ @ SF

Oracle Park · 4:05p · 24 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Hourly window

+6 ↑

1:05p

+8 ↑

2:05p

+9 ↑

3:05p

+10 ↑

4:05p

+11 ↑

5:05p

conditions build late — the 5:05p window peaks +11

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 29 · vs Kelly ⟷ Gabriel Moreno conv 17 · vs Proxy → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Merrill Kelly RHP · AZ

leak 82

1.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers — C ●●●●○

2 Drew Gilbert — D ●●●○○

3 Bryce Eldridge — C ●●●○○

FADE SF Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 36

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●●○○

2 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●●○○

3 Nolan Arenado — D ●●○○○

FADE Mitch Bratt LHP · AZ

leak 13

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.73 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers — C ●●●●○

2 Drew Gilbert — D ●●●○○

3 Bryce Eldridge — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: Match 18.9% · 14D pace 38.5% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Kelly — 0.238 · 92.7 · 11.5% 38.5% 18.9% F B O C 58

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Bratt — 0.238 · 92.7 · 9.1% 38.5% 13.4% F B O C 52

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Kelly — 0.184 · 92.6 · 12.2% 20.0% 13.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 21 long shots

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Kelly — 0.149 · 86.8 · 8.2% 30.0% 10.5% F B O D 39

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Bratt — 0.149 · 86.8 · 6.5% 30.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Proxy — 0.167 · 89.3 · 8.0% 25.0% 9.6% F B O D 37

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Bratt — 0.184 · 92.6 · 9.6% 20.0% 12.0% F B O D 45

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Proxy — 0.196 · 85.1 · 6.5% 16.7% 11.9% F B O D 38

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Proxy — 0.153 · 90.9 · 10.1% 15.4% 9.2% F B O D 38

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Proxy — 0.234 · 91.8 · 12.1% 7.7% 13.8% F B O D 49

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Proxy — 0.141 · 87.4 · 3.4% 8.3% 7.8% F B O D 26

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt vs Proxy — 0.122 · 87.5 · 6.7% 8.3% 7.0% F B O D 29

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Kelly — 0.134 · 87.2 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 31

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Bratt — 0.134 · 87.2 · 4.4% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 28

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Proxy — 0.122 · 87.4 · 2.9% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 23

· AZ Jose Fernandez vs Proxy — 0.095 · 87.7 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for SF Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Merrill Kelly — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Mitch Bratt — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Arenado Arenado Moreno Moreno Devers Eldridge Gilbert Devers Eldridge Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Kelly fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rafael Devers — · 58

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof unknown

Park 0.85× Wind unknown — unknown

↑

11 mph · out

67°F

1:05p

↑

13 mph · out

70°F

2:05p

↑

14 mph · out

71°F

3:05p

+10

↑

14 mph · out

72°F

4:05p

+11

↑

15 mph · out

73°F

5:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.85× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs SF Bullpen Proxy 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 16 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 49 D — · 87 0.234 91.8 12.1% 12.9% 402 13.8% 7.7% 13.8% 0

2 Corbin Carroll 49 D — · 88 0.234 91.8 12.1% 12.9% 402 13.8% 7.7% 13.8% 0

3 Nolan Arenado 38 D — · 178 0.196 85.1 6.5% 15.1% 389 15.2% 16.7% 11.9% 0

4 Nolan Arenado 38 D — · 179 0.196 85.1 6.5% 15.1% 389 15.2% 16.7% 11.9% 0

5 Tim Tawa 38 D — · 180 0.153 90.9 10.1% 14.0% 398 10.5% 15.4% 9.2% 0

6 Tim Tawa 38 D — · 181 0.153 90.9 10.1% 14.0% 398 10.5% 15.4% 9.2% 0

7 Gabriel Moreno 37 D — · 188 0.167 89.3 8.0% 11.1% 401 10.2% 25.0% 9.6% 0

8 Gabriel Moreno 37 D — · 189 0.167 89.3 8.0% 11.1% 401 10.2% 25.0% 9.6% 0

9 Ryan Waldschmidt 29 D — · 218 0.122 87.5 6.7% 6.2% 415 4.4% 8.3% 7.0% 0

10 Ryan Waldschmidt 29 D — · 219 0.122 87.5 6.7% 6.2% 415 4.4% 8.3% 7.0% 0

11 Ildemaro Vargas 26 D — · 222 0.141 87.4 3.4% 8.9% 396 5.0% 8.3% 7.8% 0

12 Ildemaro Vargas 26 D — · 223 0.141 87.4 3.4% 8.9% 396 5.0% 8.3% 7.8% 0

13 Geraldo Perdomo 23 D — · 228 0.122 87.4 2.9% 7.4% 383 6.7% 0.0% 7.1% 0

14 Geraldo Perdomo 23 D — · 229 0.122 87.4 2.9% 7.4% 383 6.7% 0.0% 7.1% 0

15 Jose Fernandez 22 D — · 230 0.095 87.7 4.0% 7.5% 409 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 0

16 Jose Fernandez 22 D — · 231 0.095 87.7 4.0% 7.5% 409 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 0

vs Merrill Kelly · RHP 1.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 58 C — · 19 0.238 92.7 11.5% 27.9%vs RHP 399 19.8% 38.5% 18.9% 0

2 Bryce Eldridge 50 C — · 57 0.184 92.6 12.2% 19.6%vs RHP 399 20.0% 20.0% 13.4% 0

3 Drew Gilbert 39 D — · 141 0.149 86.8 8.2% 17.4%vs RHP 394 7.3% 30.0% 10.5% 0

4 Jung Hoo Lee 31 D — · 206 0.134 87.2 5.6% 11.6%vs RHP 382 5.7% 0.0% 8.7% 0

vs Mitch Bratt · LHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.73 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 52 C — · 49 0.238 92.7 9.1% 11.9%vs LHP 399 19.8% 38.5% 13.4% 0

2 Bryce Eldridge 45 D — · 94 0.184 92.6 9.6% 23.8%vs LHP 399 20.0% 20.0% 12.0% 0

3 Drew Gilbert 35 D — · 175 0.149 86.8 6.5% 10.8% 394 7.3% 30.0% 8.2% 0

4 Jung Hoo Lee 28 D — · 216 0.134 87.2 4.4% 8.7%vs LHP 382 5.7% 0.0% 7.2% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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