TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.91×

TEX @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Hourly window

-7 ↑

6:15p

-7 ↑

7:15p

-7 ↑

8:15p

-7 ↑

9:15p

-8 ↑

10:15p

best window is early — 6:15p at -7

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 20 · vs Quantrill ⟷ Jake Burger conv 23 · vs Drohan → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Cal Quantrill RHP · TEX

leak 19

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers +330 C ●●●○○

2 Garrett Mitchell +625 D ●●○○○

3 Joey Ortiz — D ●●○○○

FADE Shane Drohan LHP · MIL

leak 15

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Burger +425 D ●●●○○

2 Joc Pederson — C ●●●○○

3 Wyatt Langford +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 17.5% · 14D pace 22.2% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Quantrill +330 0.229 · 92.4 · 9.8% 22.2% 17.5% F B O C 54

· TEX Joc Pederson vs Drohan — 0.245 · 92.2 · 9.4% 16.7% 17.4% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TEX Jake Burger vs Drohan +425 0.194 · 90.2 · 9.7% 30.0% 15.2% F B O D 48

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Drohan +500 0.205 · 89.3 · 7.5% 16.7% 13.4% F B O D 44

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Quantrill +625 0.154 · 93.0 · 9.3% 16.7% 10.9% F B O D 42

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Quantrill — 0.132 · 88.6 · 5.6% 18.2% 8.3% F B O D 35

· MIL David Hamilton vs Quantrill +950 0.096 · 86.9 · 5.0% 16.7% 7.2% F B O D 30

· MIL Brice Turang vs Quantrill +575 0.175 · 90.1 · 7.3% 11.1% 12.7% F B O D 42

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Quantrill +625 0.143 · 88.8 · 8.4% 12.5% 9.6% F B O D 39

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Quantrill +400 0.193 · 91.8 · 9.6% 9.1% 13.0% F B O D 47

· TEX Corey Seager vs Drohan +425 0.188 · 91.6 · 10.8% 9.1% 12.5% F B O D 46

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Drohan +700 0.172 · 88.8 · 7.0% 8.3% 10.8% F B O D 39

· MIL William Contreras vs Quantrill +500 0.124 · 90.1 · 7.4% 9.1% 8.4% F B O D 36

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Drohan +625 0.156 · 92.1 · 9.0% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 39

· TEX Evan Carter vs Drohan — 0.127 · 87.8 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 32

· TEX Nicky Lopez vs Drohan — 0.039 · 84.3 · — 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 14

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Shane Drohan — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Cal Quantrill — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Burger Langford Bauers Mitchell Ortiz

Legend

attack side — vs Quantrill fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:15p · roof unknown

Park 0.91× Wind unknown — unknown

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

75°F

6:15p · peak

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

75°F

7:15p

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

73°F

8:15p

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

71°F

9:15p

-8

↑

10 mph · cross

70°F

10:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Drohan · LHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 52 C — · 48 0.245 92.2 9.4% 24.7% 396 21.7% 16.7% 17.4% 0

2 Jake Burger 48 D +425 · 65 0.194 90.2 9.7% 34.6%vs LHP 401 16.7% 30.0% 15.2% 0

3 Corey Seager 46 D +425 · 81 0.188 91.6 10.8% 18.8%vs LHP 394 16.0% 9.1% 12.5% 0

4 Wyatt Langford 44 D +500 · 97 0.205 89.3 7.5% 17.4%vs LHP 396 15.8% 16.7% 13.4% 0

5 Brandon Nimmo 39 D +625 · 134 0.156 92.1 9.0% 16.7%vs LHP 403 9.7% 0.0% 10.1% 0

6 Ezequiel Duran 39 D +700 · 143 0.172 88.8 7.0% 14.3%vs LHP 394 12.0% 8.3% 10.8% 0

7 Evan Carter 32 D — · 203 0.127 87.8 6.6% 0.0%vs LHP 374 7.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0

8 Nicky Lopez 14 D — · 232 0.039 84.3 — 0.0%vs LHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 6.4% 0

vs Cal Quantrill · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 54 C +330 · 37 0.229 92.4 9.8% 30.3%vs RHP 401 19.6% 22.2% 17.5% 0

2 Jackson Chourio 47 D +400 · 72 0.193 91.8 9.6% 18.7%vs RHP 400 16.0% 9.1% 13.0% 0

3 Brice Turang 42 D +575 · 118 0.175 90.1 7.3% 25.4%vs RHP 407 10.9% 11.1% 12.7% 0

4 Garrett Mitchell 42 D +625 · 119 0.154 93.0 9.3% 22.9%vs RHP 415 7.6% 16.7% 10.9% 0

5 Christian Yelich 39 D +625 · 145 0.143 88.8 8.4% 18.4%vs RHP 400 7.8% 12.5% 9.6% 0

6 William Contreras 36 D +500 · 167 0.124 90.1 7.4% 15.2%vs RHP 415 9.0% 9.1% 8.4% 0

7 Joey Ortiz 35 D — · 173 0.132 88.6 5.6% 13.9%vs RHP 391 6.7% 18.2% 8.3% 0

8 David Hamilton 30 D +950 · 211 0.096 86.9 5.0% 5.6%vs RHP 386 4.6% 16.7% 7.2% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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