TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ CHC

Playable air · 1.08×

CIN @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Hourly window

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1:20p

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2:20p

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3:20p

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4:20p

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5:20p

the 3:20p window peaks +12

Best of game Sal Stewart conv 20 · vs Gausman ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 32 · vs Abbott → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Kevin Gausman RHP · TOR

leak 41

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sal Stewart +425 C ●●●○○

2 Jj Bleday +475 C ●●●○○

3 Matt Mclain +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 39

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +330 C+ ●●●●●

2 Ian Happ — C ●●●●○

3 Michael Busch +475 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 22.5% · 14D pace 41.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Abbott +330 0.274 · 90.1 · 9.6% 41.7% 22.5% F B O C+ 69

· CHC Ian Happ vs Abbott — 0.206 · 89.3 · 9.3% 30.0% 16.0% F B O C 59

· — Sal Stewart vs Gausman +425 0.210 · 90.1 · 9.5% 21.4% 18.3% F B O C 57

· CHC Michael Busch vs Abbott +475 0.149 · 88.3 · 8.5% 27.3% 11.9% F B O C 51

· — Jj Bleday vs Gausman +475 0.217 · 88.7 · 8.4% 20.0% 18.7% F B O C 53

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Abbott +425 0.208 · 88.3 · 8.8% 8.3% 19.6% F B O C 56

· — Elly De La Cruz vs Gausman +425 0.210 · 93.8 · 9.7% 7.1% 17.8% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· — Matt Mclain vs Gausman +525 0.157 · 88.1 · 8.4% 20.0% 12.2% F B O D 46

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Abbott +525 0.160 · 88.1 · 6.2% 16.7% 12.2% F B O D 47

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Abbott +625 0.115 · 87.2 · 6.5% 12.5% 11.0% F B O D 42

· — Tyler Stephenson vs Gausman +575 0.160 · 91.0 · 9.3% 8.3% 13.8% F B O D 48

· — Dane Myers vs Gausman +750 0.106 · 89.1 · 5.8% 11.1% 9.9% F B O D 38

· — Eugenio Suarez vs Gausman +425 0.202 · 88.4 · 8.6% 0.0% 18.5% F B O D 47

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Abbott +950 0.096 · 85.9 · 3.0% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Abbott — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kevin Gausman — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Busch Bregman Stewart Bleday Mclain

Legend

attack side — vs Gausman fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong +330 · 69

Sal Stewart +425 · 57

Jj Bleday +475 · 53

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof unknown

Park 1.08× Wind unknown — unknown

+11

↑

8 mph · out

76°F

1:20p

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8 mph · out

76°F

2:20p

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9 mph · out

77°F

3:20p · peak

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9 mph · out

77°F

4:20p

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9 mph · out

76°F

5:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 69 C+ +330 · 3 0.274 90.1 9.6% 28.1%vs LHP 393 21.5% 41.7% 22.5% 0

2 Ian Happ 59 C — · 18 0.206 89.3 9.3% 13.8%vs LHP 402 18.3% 30.0% 16.0% 0

3 Seiya Suzuki 56 C +425 · 25 0.208 88.3 8.8% 30.4%vs LHP 406 16.1% 8.3% 19.6% 0

4 Michael Busch 51 C +475 · 54 0.149 88.3 8.5% 15.8%vs LHP 401 13.3% 27.3% 11.9% 0

5 Alex Bregman 47 D +525 · 76 0.160 88.1 6.2% 12.5%vs LHP 389 11.4% 16.7% 12.2% 0

6 Carson Kelly 42 D +625 · 117 0.115 87.2 6.5% 20.0%vs LHP 410 7.4% 12.5% 11.0% 0

7 Nico Hoerner 33 D +950 · 195 0.096 85.9 3.0% 6.9%vs LHP 381 5.3% 0.0% 9.1% 0

vs Kevin Gausman · RHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 57 C +425 · 24 0.210 90.1 9.5% 22.8%vs RHP 395 17.5% 21.4% 18.3% 0

2 Elly De La Cruz 55 C +425 · 30 0.210 93.8 9.7% 20.3%vs RHP 398 15.7% 7.1% 17.8% 0

3 Jj Bleday 53 C +475 · 39 0.217 88.7 8.4% 21.6%vs RHP 387 20.0% 20.0% 18.7% 0

4 Tyler Stephenson 48 D +575 · 66 0.160 91.0 9.3% 22.0%vs RHP 392 9.4% 8.3% 13.8% 0

5 Eugenio Suarez 47 D +425 · 68 0.202 88.4 8.6% 27.3%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 0

6 Matt Mclain 46 D +525 · 83 0.157 88.1 8.4% 13.4%vs RHP 394 14.3% 20.0% 12.2% 0

7 Dane Myers 38 D +750 · 150 0.106 89.1 5.8% 11.8%vs RHP 384 5.2% 11.1% 9.9% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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