TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ NYY

Playable air · 1.05×

BOS @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:15p · 22 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:15p

+5 ↑

8:15p

+5 ↑

9:15p

+5 ↑

10:15p

+4 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +5

Best of game Paul Goldschmidt conv 33 · vs Proxy ⟷ Willson Contreras conv 20 · vs Rodón → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK BOS Bullpen Proxy · BOS

leak 36

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Paul Goldschmidt +500 C ●●●●●

2 Ben Rice +425 B ●●●●○

3 Cody Bellinger +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Carlos Rodón LHP · NYY

leak 16

0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras +390 C ●●●○○

2 Nick Sogard +950 D ●●○○○

3 Adley Rutschman — D ●●○○○

FADE Max Fried LHP · NYY

leak 3

0.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.95 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras +390 C ●●●○○

2 Wilyer Abreu +400 D ●●○○○

3 Ceddanne Rafaela +700 D ●○○○○

FADE Jake Bennett LHP · BOS

leak 11

0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.53 · stingy — thin edge

1 Paul Goldschmidt +500 C ●●●●●

2 Ben Rice +425 C+ ●●●●○

3 Cody Bellinger +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 21.7% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Bennett +500 0.200 · 86.7 · 8.4% 50.0% 17.6% F B O C 51

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Proxy +500 0.200 · 86.7 · 10.6% 50.0% 16.1% F B O C 54

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Bennett +425 0.276 · 92.2 · 10.0% 25.0% 22.2% F B O C+ 64

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Proxy +425 0.276 · 92.2 · 15.2% 25.0% 21.7% F B O B 71

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Rodón +390 0.245 · 89.8 · 9.6% 20.0% 20.2% F B O C 59

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Fried +390 0.245 · 89.8 · 6.2% 20.0% 17.9% F B O C 53

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Rodón +400 0.205 · 89.9 · 9.2% 8.3% 15.0% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Proxy +525 0.163 · 89.1 · 6.4% 20.0% 11.3% F B O D 44

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Bennett +525 0.163 · 89.1 · 6.5% 20.0% 11.3% F B O D 43

· BOS Nick Sogard vs Rodón +950 0.124 · 85.6 · 6.0% 16.7% 10.3% F B O D 40

· BOS Adley Rutschman vs Rodón — 0.170 · 88.8 · 6.9% 12.5% 12.1% F B O D 45

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Fried +400 0.205 · 89.9 · 6.0% 8.3% 13.4% F B O D 46

· BOS Jahmai Jones vs Rodón +425 0.165 · 91.3 · 8.2% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 44

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Rodón +700 0.170 · 86.4 · 6.1% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 43

· BOS Andruw Monasterio vs Rodón +625 0.156 · 87.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 43

· BOS Eli White vs Rodón +850 0.146 · 85.5 · 5.8% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 41

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Fried +700 0.170 · 86.4 · 3.9% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 38

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Bennett +850 0.136 · 83.9 · 5.2% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 34

· BOS Andruw Monasterio vs Fried +625 0.156 · 87.9 · 4.5% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 37

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Proxy +850 0.136 · 83.9 · 4.1% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 33

· BOS Caleb Durbin vs Rodón +950 0.140 · 83.6 · 4.3% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 36

· BOS Caleb Durbin vs Fried +950 0.140 · 83.6 · 2.8% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Carlos Rodón — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Max Fried — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for BOS Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jake Bennett — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Sogard Contreras Rice Goldschmidt Bellinger Rice Goldschmidt Bellinger

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Ben Rice +425 · 64

Ben Rice +425 · 71

Willson Contreras +390 · 59

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:15p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — unknown

↑

4 mph · out

73°F

7:15p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

71°F

8:15p

↑

4 mph · out

71°F

9:15p

↑

4 mph · out

70°F

10:15p

↑

3 mph · out

70°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× Current conditions unavailable.. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Carlos Rodón · LHP 0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 59 C +390 · 15 0.245 89.8 9.6% 24.1%vs LHP 405 19.7% 20.0% 20.2% 0

2 Wilyer Abreu 53 C +400 · 40 0.205 89.9 9.2% 14.7%vs LHP 407 15.4% 8.3% 15.0% 0

3 Adley Rutschman 45 D — · 95 0.170 88.8 6.9% 12.5%vs LHP 400 9.2% 12.5% 12.1% 0

4 Jahmai Jones 44 D +425 · 98 0.165 91.3 8.2% 21.1%vs LHP 401 6.2% 0.0% 13.1% 0

5 Ceddanne Rafaela 43 D +700 · 106 0.170 86.4 6.1% 17.2%vs LHP 382 12.4% 0.0% 12.9% 0

6 Andruw Monasterio 43 D +625 · 107 0.156 87.9 7.0% 19.2%vs LHP 390 10.7% 0.0% 12.1% 0

7 Eli White 41 D +850 · 121 0.146 85.5 5.8% 20.0%vs LHP 373 16.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0

8 Nick Sogard 40 D +950 · 133 0.124 85.6 6.0% 20.0%vs LHP 400 6.5% 16.7% 10.3% 0

9 Caleb Durbin 36 D +950 · 165 0.140 83.6 4.3% 12.0%vs LHP 376 8.8% 0.0% 9.9% 0

vs Max Fried · LHP 0.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.95 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 53 C +390 · 41 0.245 89.8 6.2% 24.1%vs LHP 405 19.7% 20.0% 17.9% 0

2 Wilyer Abreu 46 D +400 · 77 0.205 89.9 6.0% 14.7%vs LHP 407 15.4% 8.3% 13.4% 0

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 38 D +700 · 154 0.170 86.4 3.9% 17.2%vs LHP 382 12.4% 0.0% 11.5% 0

4 Andruw Monasterio 37 D +625 · 156 0.156 87.9 4.5% 19.2%vs LHP 390 10.7% 0.0% 10.8% 0

5 Caleb Durbin 32 D +950 · 201 0.140 83.6 2.8% 12.0%vs LHP 376 8.8% 0.0% 8.8% 0

vs BOS Bullpen Proxy 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 71 B +425 · 5 0.276 92.2 15.2% 28.7% 394 24.4% 25.0% 21.7% 0

2 Paul Goldschmidt 54 C +500 · 55 0.200 86.7 10.6% 19.8% 392 16.9% 50.0% 16.1% 0

3 Cody Bellinger 44 D +525 · 126 0.163 89.1 6.4% 9.5% 378 9.7% 20.0% 11.3% 0

4 Jose Caballero 33 D +850 · 212 0.136 83.9 4.1% 14.5% 383 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0

vs Jake Bennett · LHP 0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.53 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 64 C+ +425 · 9 0.276 92.2 10.0% 35.7%vs LHP 394 24.4% 25.0% 22.2% 0

2 Paul Goldschmidt 51 C +500 · 53 0.200 86.7 8.4% 32.3%vs LHP 392 16.9% 50.0% 17.6% 0

3 Cody Bellinger 43 D +525 · 111 0.163 89.1 6.5% 12.1%vs LHP 378 9.7% 20.0% 11.3% 0

4 Jose Caballero 34 D +850 · 182 0.136 83.9 5.2% 25.0%vs LHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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