TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.97×

KC @ CLE

Progressive Field · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 4 mph in 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

7:10p

-3 ↑

8:10p

-2 ↑

9:10p

-1 ↑

10:10p

+1 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 11:10p window peaks +1

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 22 · vs Bibee ⟷ Brayan Rocchio conv 8 · vs Wacha → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 95

1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone +350 C ●●●○○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino +500 D ●●●○○

3 Carter Jensen +390 C ●●●○○

FADE Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 25

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brayan Rocchio +750 D ●○○○○

2 Angel Martinez +625 D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: Match 24.6% · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ vs Bibee Edge +350 0.212 · 93.2 · 10.8% 20.0% 24.6% F B O C 58

· KC Carter Jensen vs Bibee Edge +390 0.180 · 90.8 · 9.2% 18.2% 18.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Bibee Edge +500 0.131 · 89.4 · 7.9% 30.0% 14.2% F B O D 44

· KC Nick Loftin vs Bibee — 0.147 · 87.1 · 5.9% 9.1% 8.0% F B O D 39

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Wacha Edge +750 0.118 · 86.7 · 4.8% 10.0% 7.0% F B O D 34

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Bibee — 0.169 · 92.5 · 9.7% 0.0% 15.8% F B O D 47

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Wacha Edge +625 0.178 · 87.3 · 7.3% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 39

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.162 · 91.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 40

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Bibee +475 0.151 · 88.8 · 8.9% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 40

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Wacha Edge +750 0.118 · 90.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 37

· KC Isaac Collins vs Bibee Edge +850 0.117 · 88.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 37

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Wacha Edge +625 0.130 · 88.1 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 36

· CLE Jose Ramirez vs Wacha Edge +500 0.142 · 89.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

· CLE Steven Kwan vs Wacha Edge — 0.059 · 83.8 · 1.5% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tanner Bibee — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Michael Wacha — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Jensen Pasquantino

Legend

attack side — vs Bibee fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jac Caglianone +350 · 58

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 4 mph in 72°F open

-4

↑

4 mph · in

71°F

7:10p

-3

↑

3 mph · cross

68°F

8:10p

-2

↑

4 mph · cross

66°F

9:10p

-1

↑

4 mph · slight_out

63°F

10:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

61°F

11:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.97× 72°F, wind 4 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 58 C +350 · 23 0.212 93.2 10.8% 29.4%vs RHP 417 15.4% 20.0% 24.6% 28

2 Carter Jensen 51 C +390 WARM 53 0.180 90.8 9.2% 16.3%vs RHP 397 15.1% 18.2% 18.0% 28

3 Bobby Witt 47 D — COOL 73 0.169 92.5 9.7% 16.4%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 38

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 44 D +500 HOT 99 0.131 89.4 7.9% 12.7%vs RHP 402 10.5% 30.0% 14.2% 37

5 Salvador Perez 40 D +475 COOL 121 0.151 88.8 8.9% 18.4%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 35

6 Nick Loftin 39 D — WARM 135 0.147 87.1 5.9% 11.6%vs RHP 394 8.8% 9.1% 8.0% 26

7 Isaac Collins 37 D +850 WARM 152 0.117 88.8 6.9% 7.8%vs RHP 394 5.4% 0.0% 8.0% 26

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Chase Delauter 40 D — COOL 122 0.162 91.2 6.7% 23.6%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 18

2 Angel Martinez 39 D +625 COOL 129 0.178 87.3 7.3% 25.0%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 30

3 Patrick Bailey 37 D +750 · 150 0.118 90.6 7.0% 14.6%vs RHP 409 6.5% 0.0% 8.6% 17

4 Travis Bazzana 36 D +625 COOL 160 0.130 88.1 5.8% 16.4%vs RHP 396 9.1% 0.0% 7.4% 36

5 Jose Ramirez 34 D +500 WARM 168 0.142 89.3 5.8% 10.0%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 32

6 Brayan Rocchio 34 D +750 COOL 173 0.118 86.7 4.8% 11.9%vs RHP 384 7.2% 10.0% 7.0% 29

7 Steven Kwan 22 D — WARM 207 0.059 83.8 1.5% 2.9%vs RHP 372 1.7% 0.0% 6.0% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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