TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.90×

PIT @ STL

Busch Stadium · 8:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 4 mph in 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

-11 ↑

7:15p

-11 ↑

8:15p

-10 ↑

9:15p

-9 ↑

10:15p

-9 ↑

11:15p

conditions build late — the 10:15p window peaks -9

Best of game Nolan Gorman conv 30 · vs Jones ⟷ Oneil Cruz conv 33 · vs Mathews → edge: Oneil Cruz

ATTACK Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 88

1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Gorman +625 D ●●●●●

2 Jordan Walker +500 C ●●●●○

3 Alec Burleson +500 D ●●○○○

FADE Quinn Mathews LHP · STL

leak 6

0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.97 · stingy — thin edge

1 Oneil Cruz +425 C ●●●●●

2 Brandon Lowe +525 D ●●●○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Oneil Cruz: Match 23.4% · 14D pace 42.9% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Oneil Cruz ✶ vs Mathews +425 0.229 · 95.7 · 9.3% 42.9% 23.4% F B O C 53

· STL Jordan Walker vs Jones +500 0.217 · 92.4 · 10.5% 28.6% 22.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Jones Edge +625 0.134 · 89.3 · 8.6% 50.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Mathews +525 0.221 · 91.2 · 7.7% 18.2% 16.2% F B O D 46

· STL Alec Burleson vs Jones Edge +500 0.193 · 92.2 · 9.6% 15.4% 11.8% F B O D 46

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.133 · 85.9 · 7.1% 11.1% 7.5% F B O D 34

· STL José Fermín vs Jones +950 0.124 · 86.6 · 4.7% 11.1% 6.3% F B O D 30

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Jones +950 0.135 · 89.2 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 30

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Mathews Edge +575 0.162 · 90.5 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 36

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Jones Edge +750 0.131 · 89.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Mathews — 0.140 · 86.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 31

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Mathews Edge — 0.088 · 85.3 · 3.2% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 22

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Mathews Edge — 0.089 · 86.1 · 3.6% 0.0% 4.9% F B O D 23

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Mathews Edge — 0.065 · 87.2 · 3.4% 0.0% 4.6% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Quinn Mathews — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jared Jones — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Lowe Walker Burleson Gorman

Legend

attack side — vs Jones fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Oneil Cruz +425 · 53

Jordan Walker +500 · 53

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 4 mph in 80°F open

-11

↑

7 mph · in

78°F

7:15p

-11

↑

6 mph · in

75°F

8:15p

-10

↑

5 mph · in

72°F

9:15p

-9

↑

4 mph · in

69°F

10:15p · peak

-9

↑

4 mph · in

68°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.90× 80°F, wind 4 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Quinn Mathews · LHP 0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.97 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz ✶ 53 C +425 WARM 37 0.229 95.7 9.3% 50.0%vs LHP 415 25.4% 42.9% 23.4% 14

2 Brandon Lowe 46 D +525 COOL 79 0.221 91.2 7.7% 15.6%vs LHP 391 16.5% 18.2% 16.2% 24

3 Bryan Reynolds 36 D +575 · 159 0.162 90.5 7.4% 17.1%vs LHP 409 10.7% 0.0% 7.5% 39

4 Spencer Horwitz 31 D — COOL 186 0.140 86.8 5.9% 10.0%vs LHP 395 9.5% 0.0% 5.6% 24

5 Nick Gonzales 23 D — COOL 204 0.089 86.1 3.6% 3.2%vs LHP 397 6.4% 0.0% 4.9% 25

6 Jake Mangum 22 D — WARM 208 0.088 85.3 3.2% 5.9%vs LHP 393 4.5% 0.0% 5.1% 23

7 Jared Triolo 21 D — COOL 209 0.065 87.2 3.4% 0.0%vs LHP 407 1.4% 0.0% 4.6% 35

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 53 C +500 · 38 0.217 92.4 10.5% 26.8%vs RHP 406 18.0% 28.6% 22.8% 42

2 Alec Burleson 46 D +500 · 81 0.193 92.2 9.6% 22.5%vs RHP 405 14.8% 15.4% 11.8% 44

3 Nolan Gorman 38 D +625 WARM 140 0.134 89.3 8.6% 15.0%vs RHP 404 10.0% 50.0% 9.3% 4

4 Jj Wetherholt 34 D +750 WARM 169 0.131 89.9 7.8% 15.3%vs RHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 7.3% 41

5 Nathan Church 34 D — COOL 172 0.133 85.9 7.1% 16.0%vs RHP 384 8.7% 11.1% 7.5% 28

6 Ivan Herrera 30 D +950 COOL 188 0.135 89.2 6.8% 17.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 33

7 José Fermín 30 D +950 WARM 190 0.124 86.6 4.7% 6.9%vs RHP 390 6.5% 11.1% 6.3% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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