TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ SF

Neutral air · 1.04×

AZ @ SF

Oracle Park · 10:15p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 8 mph out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

7:15p

+4 ↑

8:15p

+2 ↑

9:15p

+1 ↑

10:15p

+0 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +4

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 32 · vs Drake ⟷ Gabriel Moreno conv 18 · vs Tidwell → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Kohl Drake LHP · AZ

leak 99

1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers — C+ ●●●●●

2 Drew Gilbert — D ●●●○○

3 Bryce Eldridge — C ●●●○○

FADE Blade Tidwell RHP · SF

leak 82

0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.84 · stingy — thin edge

1 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●●○○

2 Nolan Arenado — D ●●○○○

3 Tim Tawa — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: Match 24.9% · 14D pace 38.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Drake — 0.240 · 92.6 · 11.6% 38.5% 24.9% F B O C+ 61

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Drake — 0.183 · 92.5 · 11.9% 20.0% 20.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Drake — 0.140 · 86.5 · 7.8% 30.0% 14.4% F B O D 40

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Tidwell — 0.161 · 89.4 · 7.1% 25.0% 10.2% F B O D 38

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Tidwell — 0.196 · 85.0 · 6.5% 16.7% 14.5% F B O D 41

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Tidwell — 0.155 · 90.7 · 7.5% 15.4% 7.8% F B O D 37

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Tidwell Edge — 0.142 · 87.5 · 4.7% 8.3% 7.3% F B O D 30

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Tidwell Edge — 0.236 · 91.8 · 8.7% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 46

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Tidwell — 0.123 · 87.4 · 6.3% 8.3% 5.0% F B O D 31

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Drake — 0.134 · 87.0 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 32

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Tidwell Edge — 0.122 · 87.5 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 27

· AZ Jose Fernandez COOL vs Tidwell — 0.097 · 87.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Blade Tidwell — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kohl Drake — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Arenado Moreno Devers Eldridge Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Drake fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Rafael Devers — · 61

Bryce Eldridge — · 52

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 8 mph out 73°F open

↑

8 mph · out

70°F

7:15p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

68°F

8:15p

↑

7 mph · out

66°F

9:15p

↑

6 mph · out

64°F

10:15p

↑

6 mph · out

62°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 73°F, wind 8 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Blade Tidwell · RHP 0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.84 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 46 D — · 88 0.236 91.8 8.7% 16.5%vs RHP 402 13.0% 0.0% 13.4% 35

2 Nolan Arenado 41 D — COOL 119 0.196 85.0 6.5% 21.7%vs RHP 389 15.3% 16.7% 14.5% 26

3 Gabriel Moreno 38 D — WARM 147 0.161 89.4 7.1% 14.0%vs RHP 401 10.3% 25.0% 10.2% 38

4 Tim Tawa 37 D — WARM 154 0.155 90.7 7.5% 23.5%vs RHP 400 8.1% 15.4% 7.8% 36

5 Ryan Waldschmidt 31 D — COOL 187 0.123 87.4 6.3% 10.3%vs RHP 419 4.5% 8.3% 5.0% 25

6 Ildemaro Vargas 30 D — WARM 192 0.142 87.5 4.7% 9.8%vs RHP 396 5.0% 8.3% 7.3% 45

7 Geraldo Perdomo 27 D — COOL 195 0.122 87.5 4.4% 10.1%vs RHP 383 6.7% 0.0% 6.8% 42

8 Jose Fernandez 26 D — COOL 199 0.097 87.7 5.2% 23.1%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 20

vs Kohl Drake · LHP 1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 61 C+ — · 15 0.240 92.6 11.6% 10.3%vs LHP 399 20.0% 38.5% 24.9% 41

2 Bryce Eldridge 52 C — WARM 47 0.183 92.5 11.9% 20.0%vs LHP 400 18.8% 20.0% 20.0% 26

3 Drew Gilbert 40 D — HOT 127 0.140 86.5 7.8% 9.6% 392 7.4% 30.0% 14.4% 26

4 Jung Hoo Lee 32 D — · 184 0.134 87.0 5.4% 8.7%vs LHP 382 5.8% 0.0% 8.0% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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