TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.17×

BOS @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:15p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 9 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:15p

+3 ↑

8:15p

+2 ↑

9:15p

+1 ↑

10:15p

+0 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +5

Best of game Ben Rice conv 31 · vs Sandoval ⟷ Willson Contreras conv 24 · vs Schlittler → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Patrick Sandoval LHP · BOS

leak 87

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Trent Grisham +500 C ●●●●○

3 Cody Bellinger +500 D ●●●○○

FADE Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 80

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras +500 C+ ●●●●○

2 Jarren Duran +575 D ●●●○○

3 Wilyer Abreu +390 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 36.6% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Sandoval +400 0.277 · 92.2 · 10.1% 25.0% 36.6% F B O C+ 68

· BOS Willson Contreras COOL vs Schlittler +500 0.245 · 89.9 · 10.3% 20.0% 28.0% F B O C+ 60

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Sandoval +500 0.197 · 90.9 · 8.3% 25.0% 22.5% F B O C 55

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Schlittler Edge +390 0.205 · 89.9 · 9.9% 8.3% 12.9% F B O C 52

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Sandoval Edge +500 0.200 · 86.5 · 8.4% 0.0% 19.4% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Sandoval +500 0.165 · 89.1 · 6.5% 25.0% 15.2% F B O D 46

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Schlittler Edge +575 0.158 · 89.6 · 8.5% 20.0% 17.0% F B O D 47

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Sandoval — 0.176 · 90.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 46

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Schlittler +850 0.170 · 86.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 42

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Sandoval Edge +850 0.138 · 83.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 37

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Schlittler +850 0.140 · 83.6 · 4.6% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 35

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Sandoval — 0.114 · 89.1 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 40

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Schlittler +850 0.156 · 88.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cam Schlittler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Patrick Sandoval — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Duran Rice Grisham Bellinger

Legend

attack side — vs Sandoval fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Ben Rice +400 · 68

Willson Contreras +500 · 60

Trent Grisham +500 · 55

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 9 mph slight_out 77°F open

↑

10 mph · slight_out

76°F

7:15p · peak

↑

12 mph · slight_out

76°F

8:15p

↑

11 mph · cross

74°F

9:15p

↑

10 mph · cross

71°F

10:15p

↑

9 mph · cross

69°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 77°F, wind 9 mph NW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 60 C+ +500 COOL 17 0.245 89.9 10.3% 31.7%vs RHP 405 19.8% 20.0% 28.0% 29

2 Wilyer Abreu 52 C +390 · 46 0.205 89.9 9.9% 16.8%vs RHP 407 15.5% 8.3% 12.9% 36

3 Jarren Duran 47 D +575 · 72 0.158 89.6 8.5% 28.6%vs RHP 398 13.7% 20.0% 17.0% 27

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 42 D +850 · 110 0.170 86.4 6.6% 16.0%vs RHP 382 12.5% 0.0% 11.7% 38

5 Andruw Monasterio 41 D +850 COOL 117 0.156 88.2 7.5% 2.1%vs RHP 390 10.7% 0.0% 8.5% 39

6 Caleb Durbin 35 D +850 COOL 163 0.140 83.6 4.6% 18.4%vs RHP 376 8.9% 0.0% 9.9% 40

vs Patrick Sandoval · LHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 68 C+ +400 · 5 0.277 92.2 10.1% 37.0%vs LHP 394 24.6% 25.0% 36.6% 34

2 Trent Grisham 55 C +500 · 31 0.197 90.9 8.3% 12.5%vs LHP 388 14.0% 25.0% 22.5% 31

3 Paul Goldschmidt 52 C +500 COOL 44 0.200 86.5 8.4% 30.0%vs LHP 390 15.7% 0.0% 19.4% 2

4 Cody Bellinger 46 D +500 WARM 78 0.165 89.1 6.5% 13.3%vs LHP 379 9.8% 25.0% 15.2% 15

5 Jazz Chisholm 46 D — COOL 87 0.176 90.7 7.8% 19.2%vs LHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 31

6 Austin Wells 40 D — COOL 125 0.114 89.1 6.7% 11.8%vs LHP 387 8.5% 0.0% 8.8% 20

7 Jose Caballero 37 D +850 · 148 0.138 83.9 5.4% 25.0%vs LHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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