TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ TB

Playable air · 1.08×

SD @ TB

Tropicana Field · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 11 · vs Mize ⟷ Jackson Merrill conv 16 · vs McClanahan → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 82

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.68 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +255 C+ ●●○○○

2 Jonathan Aranda +500 D ●○○○○

3 Jonny Deluca +700 D ●○○○○

FADE Shane McClanahan LHP · TB

leak 15

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.43 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Merrill +625 C ●●○○○

2 Gavin Sheets — D ●●○○○

3 Ty France +575 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 21.9%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Jackson Merrill vs McClanahan +625 0.177 · 90.7 · 9.9% 16.7% 15.0% F B O C 52

· SD Ty France COOL vs McClanahan Edge +575 0.216 · 92.1 · 9.3% 8.3% 13.8% F B O C 53

· — Junior Caminero ✶ COOL vs Mize +255 0.248 · 93.1 · 10.4% 0.0% 21.9% F B O C+ 61

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs McClanahan Edge +400 0.189 · 90.7 · 9.2% 8.3% 11.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs McClanahan — 0.178 · 87.5 · 7.9% 11.1% 11.5% F B O D 46

· SD Fernando Tatis HOT vs McClanahan Edge — 0.161 · 93.0 · 10.4% 0.0% 21.8% F B O D 47

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs McClanahan — 0.078 · 87.1 · 5.5% 8.3% 8.1% F B O D 33

· — Jonathan Aranda vs Mize Edge +500 0.141 · 91.0 · 9.0% 8.3% 7.9% F B O D 45

· SD Xander Bogaerts HOT vs McClanahan Edge +750 0.106 · 89.0 · 7.3% 8.3% 6.7% F B O D 39

· — Jonny Deluca COOL vs Mize +700 0.164 · 85.5 · 5.7% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 38

· — Yandy Diaz COOL vs Mize +525 0.158 · 90.7 · 7.5% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 41

· — Nick Fortes COOL vs Mize — 0.100 · 85.2 · 4.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 33

· — Cedric Mullins vs Mize Edge +575 0.143 · 87.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 40

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs McClanahan Edge +950 0.114 · 87.2 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 36

· — Richie Palacios COOL vs Mize Edge +950 0.109 · 86.2 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 35

· — Taylor Walls COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.074 · 85.4 · 4.2% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 29

· — Chandler Simpson COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.053 · 83.9 · — 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Shane McClanahan — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Casey Mize — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Merrill Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Mize fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.08× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.08× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane McClanahan · LHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.43 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 53 C +575 COOL 39 0.216 92.1 9.3% 20.0%vs LHP 394 15.4% 8.3% 13.8% 32

2 Jackson Merrill 52 C +625 WARM 45 0.177 90.7 9.9% 11.1%vs LHP 412 15.9% 16.7% 15.0% 28

3 Manny Machado 51 C +400 COOL 48 0.189 90.7 9.2% 14.8%vs LHP 397 17.2% 8.3% 11.3% 35

4 Fernando Tatis 47 D — HOT 71 0.161 93.0 10.4% 43.8%vs LHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 21.8% 42

5 Gavin Sheets 46 D — COOL 82 0.178 87.5 7.9% 0.0%vs LHP 395 10.3% 11.1% 11.5% 15

6 Xander Bogaerts 39 D +750 HOT 137 0.106 89.0 7.3% 5.0%vs LHP 400 8.0% 8.3% 6.7% 31

7 Freddy Fermin 36 D +950 COOL 158 0.114 87.2 5.8% 12.5%vs LHP 382 2.4% 0.0% 7.6% 18

8 Jake Cronenworth 33 D — COOL 178 0.078 87.1 5.5% 14.3%vs LHP 392 2.4% 8.3% 8.1% 32

vs Casey Mize · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.68 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 61 C+ +255 COOL 13 0.248 93.1 10.4% 39.4%vs RHP 413 24.6% 0.0% 21.9% 41

2 Jonathan Aranda 45 D +500 WARM 91 0.141 91.0 9.0% 15.5%vs RHP 386 11.3% 8.3% 7.9% 36

3 Yandy Diaz 41 D +525 COOL 114 0.158 90.7 7.5% 24.5%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 46

4 Cedric Mullins 40 D +575 WARM 126 0.143 87.7 5.8% 17.8%vs RHP 389 11.4% 0.0% 8.3% 27

5 Jonny Deluca 38 D +700 COOL 138 0.164 85.5 5.7% 23.1%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 33

6 Richie Palacios 35 D +950 COOL 164 0.109 86.2 5.5% 11.1%vs RHP 398 4.0% 0.0% 6.9% 34

7 Nick Fortes 33 D — COOL 177 0.100 85.2 4.3% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 9.0% 11

8 Taylor Walls 29 D — COOL 194 0.074 85.4 4.2% 2.4%vs RHP 383 0.9% 0.0% 5.9% 28

9 Chandler Simpson 19 D — COOL 211 0.053 83.9 — 2.4%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 49

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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