TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ MIN

Suppressed air · 0.93×

CWS @ MIN

Target Field · 8:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 3 mph cross 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

7:10p

-7 ↑

8:10p

-8 ↑

9:10p

-8 ↑

10:10p

-8 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at -5

Best of game Brooks Lee conv 28 · vs Castillo ⟷ Tristan Peters conv 36 · vs Kremer → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Luis Castillo RHP · SEA

leak 95

1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brooks Lee +525 D ●●●●○

2 Trevor Larnach +525 D ●●○○○

3 Kody Clemens +330 C ●●○○○

FADE Dean Kremer RHP · BAL

leak 93

2.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tristan Peters +700 C ●●●●●

2 Munetaka Murakami +255 C+ ●●●●○

3 Miguel Vargas +400 C+ ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 34.3% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Tristan Peters vs Kremer Edge +700 0.193 · 87.4 · 6.5% 50.0% 21.1% F B O C 50

· — Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Kremer Edge +255 0.284 · 94.0 · 12.2% 23.1% 34.3% F B O C+ 67

· — Miguel Vargas vs Kremer +400 0.246 · 90.8 · 10.5% 23.1% 27.6% F B O C+ 62

· — Colson Montgomery vs Kremer Edge +320 0.213 · 88.9 · 9.6% 9.1% 15.4% F B O C 54

· — Kody Clemens vs Castillo Edge +330 0.222 · 92.4 · 10.6% 10.0% 13.7% F B O C 54

· — Byron Buxton COOL vs Castillo — 0.257 · 90.2 · 12.3% 0.0% 18.9% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Brooks Lee HOT vs Castillo Edge +525 0.189 · 87.9 · 6.1% 36.4% 20.2% F B O D 48

· — Trevor Larnach vs Castillo Edge +525 0.156 · 87.6 · 8.4% 14.3% 11.0% F B O D 43

· — Josh Bell COOL vs Castillo Edge +425 0.170 · 89.8 · 9.7% 10.0% 10.7% F B O D 47

· — Braden Montgomery vs Kremer Edge +750 0.139 · 89.1 · 5.5% 8.3% 9.2% F B O D 38

· — Luke Keaschall HOT vs Castillo +850 0.110 · 85.2 · 5.9% 9.1% 8.1% F B O D 34

· — Royce Lewis COOL vs Castillo +400 0.168 · 89.9 · 10.5% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 47

· — Chase Meidroth COOL vs Kremer +950 0.127 · 87.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· — Sam Antonacci COOL vs Kremer Edge +750 0.126 · 87.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 37

· — Victor Caratini COOL vs Castillo Edge — 0.103 · 89.4 · 8.0% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Dean Kremer — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Luis Castillo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Peters Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Castillo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Tristan Peters +700 · 50

Munetaka Murakami +255 · 67

Miguel Vargas +400 · 62

Brooks Lee +525 · 48

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 3 mph cross 77°F open

-5

↑

4 mph · in

79°F

7:10p · peak

-7

↑

6 mph · in

77°F

8:10p

-8

↑

7 mph · in

74°F

9:10p

-8

↑

8 mph · in

72°F

10:10p

-8

↑

9 mph · cross

72°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.93× 77°F, wind 3 mph S (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Dean Kremer · RHP 2.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.45 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 67 C+ +255 · 6 0.284 94.0 12.2% 39.0%vs RHP 404 19.2% 23.1% 34.3% 27

2 Miguel Vargas 62 C+ +400 · 11 0.246 90.8 10.5% 17.0%vs RHP 393 20.9% 23.1% 27.6% 36

3 Colson Montgomery 54 C +320 WARM 35 0.213 88.9 9.6% 24.3%vs RHP 399 21.1% 9.1% 15.4% 21

4 Tristan Peters 50 C +700 WARM 56 0.193 87.4 6.5% 15.3%vs RHP 379 12.6% 50.0% 21.1% 37

5 Braden Montgomery 38 D +750 WARM 142 0.139 89.1 5.5% 17.4%vs RHP 390 6.7% 8.3% 9.2% 39

6 Sam Antonacci 37 D +750 COOL 151 0.126 87.4 6.3% 12.7%vs RHP 390 8.5% 0.0% 8.2% 31

7 Chase Meidroth 36 D +950 COOL 156 0.127 87.8 5.8% 16.0%vs RHP 379 7.9% 0.0% 8.6% 42

vs Luis Castillo · RHP 1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton 60 C+ — COOL 19 0.257 90.2 12.3% 30.0%vs RHP 402 25.3% 0.0% 18.9% 23

2 Kody Clemens 54 C +330 · 36 0.222 92.4 10.6% 18.4%vs RHP 391 16.1% 10.0% 13.7% 29

3 Brooks Lee 48 D +525 HOT 63 0.189 87.9 6.1% 20.5%vs RHP 372 16.4% 36.4% 20.2% 34

4 Royce Lewis 47 D +400 COOL 74 0.168 89.9 10.5% 16.4%vs RHP 400 14.4% 0.0% 11.1% 35

5 Josh Bell 47 D +425 COOL 75 0.170 89.8 9.7% 19.4%vs RHP 407 11.4% 10.0% 10.7% 32

6 Trevor Larnach 43 D +525 WARM 105 0.156 87.6 8.4% 15.0%vs RHP 397 9.8% 14.3% 11.0% 17

7 Victor Caratini 34 D — COOL 167 0.103 89.4 8.0% 16.2%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 10

8 Luke Keaschall 34 D +850 HOT 171 0.110 85.2 5.9% 11.0%vs RHP 374 7.0% 9.1% 8.1% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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