TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.93×

SEA @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 4 mph out 67°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-2 ↑

7:15p

-1 ↑

8:15p

-2 ↑

9:15p

-2 ↑

10:15p

-4 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 8:15p at -1

Best of game Cal Raleigh conv 27 · vs Cease ⟷ Nathan Lukes conv 17 · vs Proxy → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Dylan Cease RHP · TOR

leak 72

0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cal Raleigh — D ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena — D ●●●○○

3 Cole Young — D ●●○○○

FADE SEA Bullpen Proxy · CHC

leak 55

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nathan Lukes — D ●●●○○

2 Kazuma Okamoto — C ●●○○○

3 George Springer — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 14.5% · 14D pace 16.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Proxy — 0.207 · 90.5 · 12.7% 16.7% 14.5% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· SEA Cal Raleigh HOT vs Cease Edge — 0.175 · 89.4 · 8.2% 36.4% 17.2% F B O D 44

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Cease — 0.188 · 90.8 · 6.2% 25.0% 18.2% F B O D 42

· — Nathan Lukes vs Proxy — 0.120 · 86.9 · 1.9% 22.2% 12.4% F B O D 30

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.141 · 88.7 · 4.8% 18.2% 10.3% F B O D 33

· — George Springer COOL vs Proxy — 0.149 · 88.2 · 6.4% 12.5% 8.2% F B O D 38

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Cease — 0.160 · 90.0 · 6.8% 8.3% 8.5% F B O D 38

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.221 · 91.2 · 7.8% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 44

· SEA J.P. Crawford vs Cease Edge — 0.131 · 87.6 · 5.7% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 29

· — Jesús Sánchez vs Proxy — 0.164 · 90.8 · 11.6% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 44

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.099 · 87.4 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 26

· — Andres Gimenez COOL vs Proxy — 0.116 · 85.5 · 3.2% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 26

· — Vladimir Guerrero COOL vs Proxy — 0.092 · 90.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 29

· — Ernie Clement COOL vs Proxy — 0.117 · 84.5 · 2.2% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 26

· — Myles Straw vs Proxy — 0.115 · 85.7 · 3.4% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Dylan Cease — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for SEA Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Raleigh Arozarena Young Okamoto Lukes

Legend

attack side — vs Cease fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Randy Arozarena — · 42

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:15p · roof retractable

Park 0.93× Wind 4 mph out 67°F retractable

-2

↑

2 mph · slight_out

67°F

7:15p

-1

↑

3 mph · slight_out

65°F

8:15p · peak

-2

↑

3 mph · slight_out

63°F

9:15p

-2

↑

3 mph · slight_out

62°F

10:15p

-4

↑

3 mph · cross

61°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.93× 67°F, wind 4 mph S (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Dylan Cease · RHP 0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh 44 D — HOT 94 0.175 89.4 8.2% 16.0%vs RHP 388 15.0% 36.4% 17.2% 23

2 Dominic Canzone 44 D — COOL 96 0.221 91.2 7.8% 24.6%vs RHP 402 14.8% 0.0% 14.2% 32

3 Randy Arozarena 42 D — COOL 109 0.188 90.8 6.2% 26.3%vs RHP 386 14.8% 25.0% 18.2% 34

4 Julio Rodríguez 38 D — WARM 144 0.160 90.0 6.8% 20.0%vs RHP 404 16.3% 8.3% 8.5% 34

5 Cole Young 33 D — COOL 176 0.141 88.7 4.8% 18.2%vs RHP 383 11.8% 18.2% 10.3% 33

6 J.P. Crawford 29 D — WARM 193 0.131 87.6 5.7% 25.0%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 3

7 Josh Naylor 26 D — COOL 198 0.099 87.4 4.8% 11.3%vs RHP 392 6.4% 0.0% 7.1% 41

vs SEA Bullpen Proxy 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 54 C — · 54 0.207 90.5 12.7% 18.7% 400 17.0% 16.7% 14.5% 35

2 Jesús Sánchez 44 D — · 120 0.164 90.8 11.6% 12.5% 398 9.7% 0.0% 9.1% 10

3 George Springer 38 D — COOL 165 0.149 88.2 6.4% 12.0% 393 10.9% 12.5% 8.2% 29

4 Nathan Lukes 30 D — WARM 196 0.120 86.9 1.9% 12.9% 381 7.8% 22.2% 12.4% 32

5 Vladimir Guerrero 29 D — COOL 200 0.092 90.1 6.9% 7.0% 408 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 22

6 Myles Straw 27 D — WARM 203 0.115 85.7 3.4% 4.1% 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 19

7 Andres Gimenez 26 D — COOL 205 0.116 85.5 3.2% 7.8% 385 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 26

8 Ernie Clement 26 D — COOL 206 0.117 84.5 2.2% 5.4% 376 7.2% 0.0% 6.5% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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