TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.33×

MIA @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 5 mph in 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:45p

+5 ↑

7:45p

+5 ↑

8:45p

+6 ↑

9:45p

+7 ↑

10:45p

conditions build late — the 10:45p window peaks +7

Best of game Heriberto Hernández conv 20 · vs Kent ⟷ Daylen Lile conv 20 · vs Pérez → edge: Heriberto Hernández

ATTACK Jackson Kent LHP · WSH

leak 87

0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Heriberto Hernández +350 C ●●●○○

2 Jakob Marsee +950 D ●●●○○

3 Javier Sanoja +950 D ●●○○○

FADE Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 11

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Daylen Lile +575 C ●●●○○

2 Keibert Ruiz +750 D ●●●○○

3 Cj Abrams +400 C+ ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Heriberto Hernández: Match 39.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Pérez Edge +575 0.168 · 88.5 · 8.7% 23.1% 17.0% F B O C 53

· MIA Heriberto Hernández ✶ vs Kent Edge +350 0.226 · 91.6 · 10.2% 0.0% 39.8% F B O C 58

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Pérez Edge +400 0.246 · 89.5 · 9.5% 0.0% 19.2% F B O C+ 60

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Kent +425 0.216 · 92.2 · 9.5% 0.0% 17.7% F B O C 58

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Kent — 0.197 · 91.2 · 10.8% 0.0% 15.3% F B O C 57

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Pérez +525 0.148 · 90.6 · 9.4% 0.0% 11.5% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Pérez Edge +750 0.160 · 88.2 · 6.5% 25.0% 13.4% F B O D 48

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Kent +950 0.114 · 87.2 · 5.2% 22.2% 12.4% F B O D 43

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Kent Edge +950 0.140 · 86.7 · 4.2% 20.0% 11.9% F B O D 44

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Pérez — 0.149 · 88.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 46

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Kent Edge +750 0.096 · 86.8 · 5.2% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 38

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Kent Edge +700 0.136 · 89.0 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 45

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.033 · 85.0 · 1.6% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jackson Kent — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Eury Pérez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hernández Sanoja Marsee Lile Ruiz

Legend

attack side — vs Kent fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 5 mph in 84°F open

↑

4 mph · in

85°F

6:45p

↑

3 mph · in

84°F

7:45p

↑

3 mph · in

83°F

8:45p

↑

2 mph · in

81°F

9:45p

↑

2 mph · cross

79°F

10:45p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.33× 84°F, wind 5 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jackson Kent · LHP 0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Heriberto Hernández ✶ 58 C +350 WARM 21 0.226 91.6 10.2% 41.7%vs LHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 39.8% 32

2 Kyle Stowers 58 C +425 HOT 24 0.216 92.2 9.5% 9.1%vs LHP 396 13.2% 0.0% 17.7% 4

3 Owen Caissie 57 C — COOL 25 0.197 91.2 10.8% 21.7% 398 13.9% 0.0% 15.3% 16

4 Otto Lopez 45 D +700 · 92 0.136 89.0 7.0% 7.1%vs LHP 402 6.2% 0.0% 9.6% 44

5 Javier Sanoja 44 D +950 · 100 0.140 86.7 4.2% 15.8%vs LHP 378 6.7% 20.0% 11.9% 38

6 Jakob Marsee 43 D +950 WARM 107 0.114 87.2 5.2% 11.1%vs LHP 381 7.6% 22.2% 12.4% 29

7 Xavier Edwards 38 D +750 COOL 146 0.096 86.8 5.2% 20.0%vs LHP 396 3.9% 0.0% 11.1% 41

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 60 C+ +400 COOL 20 0.246 89.5 9.5% 29.5%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 19.2% 25

2 Daylen Lile 53 C +575 WARM 42 0.168 88.5 8.7% 13.5%vs RHP 402 11.8% 23.1% 17.0% 39

3 Dylan Crews 50 C +525 · 57 0.148 90.6 9.4% 11.9%vs RHP 407 14.5% 0.0% 11.5% 31

4 Keibert Ruiz 48 D +750 · 69 0.160 88.2 6.5% 8.5%vs RHP 378 10.9% 25.0% 13.4% 29

5 Jacob Young 46 D — COOL 89 0.149 88.0 7.5% 12.5%vs RHP 399 7.3% 0.0% 11.7% 32

6 Nasim Nunez 25 D — COOL 202 0.033 85.0 1.6% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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