TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ DET

Playable air · 1.05×

LAD @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 5 mph in 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:40p

-6 ↑

7:40p

-6 ↑

8:40p

-6 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -4

Best of game Max Muncy conv 40 · vs Anderson ⟷ Colt Keith conv 12 · vs Skubal → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Drew Anderson RHP · DET

leak 83

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.64 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Shohei Ohtani +305 C+ ●●●●○

3 Mookie Betts +575 D ●●○○○

FADE Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 36

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colt Keith — D ●●○○○

2 Dillon Dingler +700 D ●○○○○

3 Kevin Mcgonigle +850 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 29.5% · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs Anderson Edge +320 0.248 · 90.6 · 10.6% 50.0% 29.5% F B O C+ 64

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Anderson Edge +305 0.258 · 93.5 · 11.7% 16.7% 29.2% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· LAD Colt Keith vs Skubal — 0.148 · 89.1 · 7.3% 12.5% 11.0% F B O D 37

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Anderson +575 0.166 · 90.1 · 7.9% 8.3% 11.7% F B O D 43

· LAD Dillon Dingler COOL vs Skubal Edge +700 0.226 · 88.6 · 8.7% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 47

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Anderson +575 0.144 · 89.7 · 8.6% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 38

· LAD Kevin Mcgonigle vs Skubal +850 0.144 · 88.2 · 7.3% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 36

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Anderson Edge +625 0.159 · 89.8 · 8.5% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 42

· LAD Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Skubal Edge +575 0.185 · 89.4 · 9.6% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 43

· LAD Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Skubal — 0.101 · 85.6 · 4.1% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 25

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Anderson Edge +700 0.129 · 89.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

· LAD Gleyber Torres COOL vs Skubal Edge +750 0.120 · 86.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Drew Anderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tarik Skubal — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Ohtani

Legend

attack side — vs Anderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Max Muncy +320 · 64

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 5 mph in 81°F open

-4

↑

4 mph · in

80°F

6:40p · peak

-6

↑

5 mph · in

76°F

7:40p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

74°F

8:40p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

73°F

9:40p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

72°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 81°F, wind 5 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Drew Anderson · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.64 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 64 C+ +320 · 8 0.248 90.6 10.6% 27.1%vs RHP 411 21.7% 50.0% 29.5% 47

2 Shohei Ohtani 63 C+ +305 · 10 0.258 93.5 11.7% 26.1%vs RHP 407 19.4% 16.7% 29.2% 33

3 Mookie Betts 43 D +575 COOL 106 0.166 90.1 7.9% 15.8%vs RHP 389 11.0% 8.3% 11.7% 45

4 Freddie Freeman 42 D +625 COOL 112 0.159 89.8 8.5% 14.1%vs RHP 398 10.0% 0.0% 9.7% 38

5 Teoscar Hernandez 38 D +575 · 139 0.144 89.7 8.6% 17.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 25

6 Kyle Tucker 37 D +700 COOL 155 0.129 89.0 6.9% 10.7%vs RHP 392 7.3% 0.0% 7.6% 34

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 47 D +700 COOL 77 0.226 88.6 8.7% 16.7%vs LHP 398 18.9% 0.0% 12.9% 30

2 Spencer Torkelson 43 D +575 COOL 108 0.185 89.4 9.6% 9.1%vs LHP 394 14.1% 0.0% 9.4% 18

3 Colt Keith 37 D — WARM 153 0.148 89.1 7.3% 9.9% 385 6.5% 12.5% 11.0% 22

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 36 D +850 WARM 162 0.144 88.2 7.3% 7.5%vs LHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 10.2% 42

5 Gleyber Torres 32 D +750 COOL 185 0.120 86.1 6.9% 11.1%vs LHP 393 9.3% 0.0% 6.9% 40

6 Zach Mckinstry 25 D — COOL 201 0.101 85.6 4.1% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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