TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ NYM

Neutral air · 1.04×

HOU @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 8 mph cross 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

7:10p

-11 ↑

8:10p

-11 ↑

9:10p

-12 ↑

10:10p

-12 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at -7

Best of game Carson Benge conv 21 · vs Brown ⟷ Jeremy Peña conv 24 · vs Scott → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 93

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.68 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carson Benge +700 D ●●●○○

2 Francisco Lindor +500 D ●●○○○

3 Bo Bichette — D ●●○○○

FADE Christian Scott RHP · NYM

leak 91

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jeremy Peña +500 D ●●●●○

2 Yainer Diaz +525 D ●●○○○

3 Christian Walker +400 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: Match 17.9% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ COOL vs Scott Edge +255 0.293 · 94.5 · 11.4% 0.0% 17.9% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Scott +500 0.188 · 88.4 · 6.5% 30.0% 18.1% F B O D 46

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Brown Edge +700 0.148 · 89.3 · 7.0% 25.0% 16.3% F B O D 44

· HOU Yainer Diaz HOT vs Scott +525 0.160 · 87.9 · 6.3% 16.7% 15.1% F B O D 40

· HOU Christian Walker vs Scott +400 0.201 · 89.2 · 8.2% 18.2% 13.5% F B O D 48

· NYM Francisco Lindor COOL vs Brown Edge +500 0.189 · 91.1 · 7.8% 16.7% 14.2% F B O D 48

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Brown — 0.129 · 89.6 · 6.5% 18.2% 10.1% F B O D 40

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Scott +525 0.165 · 85.9 · 6.2% 16.7% 8.3% F B O D 39

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Brown Edge +625 0.170 · 90.3 · 7.2% 11.1% 11.7% F B O D 43

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Scott +525 0.175 · 89.3 · 9.2% 10.0% 9.0% F B O D 44

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Brown +525 0.166 · 90.1 · 10.2% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 43

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Scott — 0.127 · 86.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 30

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Brown +750 0.134 · 86.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 38

· NYM Brett Baty vs Brown Edge +700 0.117 · 90.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 38

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Brown Edge +750 0.116 · 89.2 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 34

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Scott +625 0.153 · 85.1 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Christian Scott — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Hunter Brown — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Walker Peña Diaz Lindor Benge Bichette

Legend

attack side — vs Brown fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jeremy Peña +500 · 46

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 8 mph cross 79°F open

-7

↑

10 mph · cross

77°F

7:10p · peak

-11

↑

12 mph · in

77°F

8:10p

-11

↑

11 mph · in

75°F

9:10p

-12

↑

11 mph · in

73°F

10:10p

-12

↑

11 mph · in

71°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 79°F, wind 8 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Christian Scott · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 55 C +255 COOL 30 0.293 94.5 11.4% 26.0%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 30

2 Christian Walker 48 D +400 · 68 0.201 89.2 8.2% 25.0%vs RHP 392 17.7% 18.2% 13.5% 33

3 Jeremy Peña 46 D +500 WARM 86 0.188 88.4 6.5% 29.2%vs RHP 384 16.4% 30.0% 18.1% 26

4 Cam Smith 44 D +525 COOL 93 0.175 89.3 9.2% 19.6%vs RHP 408 12.7% 10.0% 9.0% 25

5 Yainer Diaz 40 D +525 HOT 123 0.160 87.9 6.3% 27.3%vs RHP 398 10.7% 16.7% 15.1% 22

6 Isaac Paredes 39 D +525 COOL 130 0.165 85.9 6.2% 17.4%vs RHP 377 11.8% 16.7% 8.3% 40

7 Jose Altuve 33 D +625 COOL 175 0.153 85.1 6.0% 21.1%vs RHP 378 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 34

8 Christian Vazquez 30 D — WARM 189 0.127 86.0 4.1% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 10

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.68 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 48 D +500 COOL 64 0.189 91.1 7.8% 16.3%vs RHP 397 13.0% 16.7% 14.2% 36

2 Carson Benge 44 D +700 COOL 95 0.148 89.3 7.0% 14.9%vs RHP 396 11.0% 25.0% 16.3% 36

3 Francisco Alvarez 43 D +525 COOL 101 0.166 90.1 10.2% 26.8%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 16

4 Jared Young 43 D +625 COOL 103 0.170 90.3 7.2% 18.6%vs RHP 400 7.1% 11.1% 11.7% 36

5 Bo Bichette 40 D — WARM 124 0.129 89.6 6.5% 11.8%vs RHP 385 10.1% 18.2% 10.1% 32

6 Marcus Semien 38 D +750 COOL 143 0.134 86.6 6.6% 16.9%vs RHP 391 11.0% 0.0% 8.7% 32

7 Brett Baty 38 D +700 WARM 145 0.117 90.0 7.8% 12.9%vs RHP 397 6.8% 0.0% 8.3% 17

8 A.J. Ewing 34 D +750 COOL 166 0.116 89.2 7.1% 11.1%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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