TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.38×

BAL @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.25× Wind 3 mph cross 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

6:40p

+7 ↑

7:40p

+8 ↑

8:40p

+10 ↑

9:40p

+11 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +11

Best of game Lawrence Butler conv 21 · vs Young ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 42 · vs Proxy → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 87

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lawrence Butler — C ●●●○○

2 Jeff Mcneil — D ●●○○○

3 Zack Gelof — C ●●○○○

FADE ATH Bullpen Proxy · ATH

leak 68

1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso — B ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo — C+ ●●●●●

3 Colton Cowser — C+ ●●●●●

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 37.2% · 14D pace 46.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Proxy — 0.240 · 94.1 · 13.9% 46.2% 37.2% F B O B 78

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Proxy — 0.222 · 92.2 · 12.4% 27.3% 32.3% F B O C+ 69

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Proxy — 0.149 · 87.3 · 11.2% 37.5% 21.4% F B O C+ 60

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Young Edge — 0.144 · 89.3 · 7.1% 23.1% 19.6% F B O C 51

· ATH Zack Gelof COOL vs Young — 0.199 · 88.8 · 7.6% 10.0% 18.7% F B O C 56

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Proxy — 0.203 · 91.1 · 13.2% 0.0% 23.8% F B O C+ 64

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Proxy — 0.171 · 89.8 · 7.1% 7.7% 14.2% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· ATH Jeff Mcneil HOT vs Young Edge — 0.097 · 86.8 · 3.5% 20.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Young Edge — 0.148 · 89.3 · 6.5% 9.1% 11.3% F B O D 46

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Proxy — 0.135 · 87.9 · 4.1% 8.3% 10.2% F B O D 43

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Young — 0.102 · 91.0 · 7.0% 7.7% 9.1% F B O D 44

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Proxy — 0.121 · 87.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 45

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for ATH Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Brandon Young — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Cowser Gelof Butler Mcneil

Legend

attack side — vs Young fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Pete Alonso — · 78

Coby Mayo — · 69

Colton Cowser — · 60

Lawrence Butler — · 51

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.25× Wind 3 mph cross 79°F open

↑

4 mph · cross

77°F

6:40p

↑

3 mph · cross

76°F

7:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

74°F

8:40p

+10

↑

3 mph · slight_out

72°F

9:40p

+11

↑

4 mph · out

69°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.38× 79°F, wind 3 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs ATH Bullpen Proxy 1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 78 B — · 3 0.240 94.1 13.9% 24.1% 402 21.8% 46.2% 37.2% 39

2 Coby Mayo 69 C+ — WARM 7 0.222 92.2 12.4% 18.5% 411 17.0% 27.3% 32.3% 27

3 Samuel Basallo 64 C+ — COOL 16 0.203 91.1 13.2% 25.0% 399 15.2% 0.0% 23.8% 16

4 Colton Cowser 60 C+ — WARM 26 0.149 87.3 11.2% 17.4% 414 15.9% 37.5% 21.4% 22

5 Gunnar Henderson 54 C — COOL 55 0.171 89.8 7.1% 15.5% 391 14.5% 7.7% 14.2% 41

6 Jackson Holliday 45 D — COOL 113 0.121 87.3 6.7% 10.5% 388 3.9% 0.0% 10.1% 50

7 Leody Taveras 43 D — · 128 0.135 87.9 4.1% 9.0% 405 5.3% 8.3% 10.2% 39

vs Brandon Young · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 56 C — COOL 27 0.199 88.8 7.6% 26.2%vs RHP 397 19.1% 10.0% 18.7% 35

2 Lawrence Butler 51 C — · 49 0.144 89.3 7.1% 20.0%vs RHP 409 8.8% 23.1% 19.6% 33

3 Carlos Cortes 46 D — COOL 83 0.148 89.3 6.5% 15.7%vs RHP 403 5.3% 9.1% 11.3% 24

4 Henry Bolte 44 D — COOL 98 0.102 91.0 7.0% 4.3%vs RHP 410 9.4% 7.7% 9.1% 38

5 Jeff Mcneil 38 D — HOT 141 0.097 86.8 3.5% 10.7%vs RHP 381 5.0% 20.0% 9.3% 45

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

9 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.