TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ MIL

Neutral air · 0.99×

TEX @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 6 mph slight_out 78°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+0 ↑

6:40p

-1 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

-3 ↑

9:40p

-3 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +0

Best of game Jake Burger conv 31 · vs Henderson ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 22 · vs Bradford → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 87

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Burger +425 D ●●●●●

2 Joc Pederson +290 C ●●●○○

3 Wyatt Langford +425 D ●●○○○

FADE Cody Bradford LHP · TEX

leak 25

0.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.61 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers — C ●●●○○

2 Garrett Mitchell +500 D ●●○○○

3 Joey Ortiz +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 22.1% · 14D pace 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Bradford — 0.229 · 92.4 · 11.8% 22.2% 22.1% F B O C 55

· TEX Joc Pederson COOL vs Henderson Edge +290 0.245 · 92.3 · 9.1% 16.7% 20.5% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TEX Jake Burger HOT vs Henderson +425 0.194 · 90.0 · 9.1% 40.0% 21.2% F B O D 49

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Henderson +425 0.205 · 89.4 · 7.4% 16.7% 14.0% F B O D 44

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Bradford +500 0.154 · 92.9 · 11.3% 16.7% 11.3% F B O D 43

· MIL Joey Ortiz HOT vs Bradford Edge +850 0.128 · 88.6 · 6.6% 20.0% 6.9% F B O D 34

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Bradford — 0.094 · 86.6 · 6.2% 16.7% 5.9% F B O D 30

· TEX Corey Seager vs Henderson Edge +265 0.188 · 91.7 · 10.5% 9.1% 12.1% F B O D 46

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Bradford — 0.143 · 89.1 · 10.1% 12.5% 7.5% F B O D 39

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Bradford Edge +370 0.182 · 91.8 · 11.4% 9.1% 10.2% F B O D 47

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Henderson +700 0.172 · 88.8 · 6.9% 8.3% 10.9% F B O D 39

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Bradford +700 0.175 · 90.3 · 8.7% 11.1% 7.7% F B O D 41

· MIL William Contreras vs Bradford Edge +425 0.125 · 90.2 · 8.9% 9.1% 5.2% F B O D 36

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Henderson Edge +400 0.156 · 92.2 · 8.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 39

· TEX Evan Carter vs Henderson Edge +700 0.127 · 87.8 · 6.4% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· TEX Nicky Lopez vs Henderson Edge — 0.039 · 84.4 · — 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 14

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Logan Henderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Cody Bradford — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Burger Langford Bauers Mitchell Ortiz

Legend

attack side — vs Henderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jake Bauers — · 55

Jake Burger +425 · 49

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 6 mph slight_out 78°F retractable

↑

5 mph · slight_out

77°F

6:40p · peak

-1

↑

6 mph · slight_out

74°F

7:40p

-2

↑

6 mph · slight_out

72°F

8:40p

-3

↑

7 mph · slight_out

70°F

9:40p

-3

↑

8 mph · slight_out

68°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 0.99× 78°F, wind 6 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 52 C +290 COOL 43 0.245 92.3 9.1% 29.3%vs RHP 396 22.0% 16.7% 20.5% 17

2 Jake Burger 49 D +425 HOT 58 0.194 90.0 9.1% 22.4%vs RHP 400 16.8% 40.0% 21.2% 23

3 Corey Seager 46 D +265 · 80 0.188 91.7 10.5% 21.3%vs RHP 394 16.2% 9.1% 12.1% 30

4 Wyatt Langford 44 D +425 COOL 97 0.205 89.4 7.4% 23.4%vs RHP 396 16.0% 16.7% 14.0% 39

5 Ezequiel Duran 39 D +700 COOL 131 0.172 88.8 6.9% 20.0%vs RHP 394 12.1% 8.3% 10.9% 31

6 Brandon Nimmo 39 D +400 COOL 132 0.156 92.2 8.9% 12.2%vs RHP 403 9.8% 0.0% 8.9% 39

7 Evan Carter 32 D +700 · 181 0.127 87.8 6.4% 11.9%vs RHP 374 7.1% 0.0% 7.5% 23

8 Nicky Lopez 14 D — · 212 0.039 84.4 — 4.8%vs RHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 6.7% 12

vs Cody Bradford · LHP 0.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.61 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 55 C — COOL 32 0.229 92.4 11.8% 24.0%vs LHP 401 19.8% 22.2% 22.1% 19

2 Jackson Chourio 47 D +370 · 76 0.182 91.8 11.4% 27.8%vs LHP 401 16.1% 9.1% 10.2% 35

3 Garrett Mitchell 43 D +500 WARM 104 0.154 92.9 11.3% 20.0%vs LHP 415 7.7% 16.7% 11.3% 15

4 Brice Turang 41 D +700 COOL 118 0.175 90.3 8.7% 5.6%vs LHP 407 11.0% 11.1% 7.7% 25

5 Christian Yelich 39 D — WARM 136 0.143 89.1 10.1% 16.7%vs LHP 400 7.9% 12.5% 7.5% 24

6 William Contreras 36 D +425 · 161 0.125 90.2 8.9% 11.1%vs LHP 415 9.1% 9.1% 5.2% 41

7 Joey Ortiz 34 D +850 HOT 174 0.128 88.6 6.6% 12.5%vs LHP 391 6.8% 20.0% 6.9% 31

8 David Hamilton 30 D — COOL 191 0.094 86.6 6.2% 6.1% 386 4.7% 16.7% 5.9% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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