TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.18×

CIN @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph slight_out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

1:20p

+4 ↑

2:20p

+3 ↑

3:20p

+1 ↑

4:20p

-1 ↑

5:20p

best window is early — 1:20p at +5

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 36 · vs Lowder ⟷ Jj Bleday conv 19 · vs Peterson → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Rhett Lowder RHP · CIN

leak 65

1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +290 B ●●●●●

2 Ian Happ +400 C+ ●●●●○

3 Seiya Suzuki +425 C ●●●○○

FADE David Peterson LHP · CHC

leak 38

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Bleday +500 C ●●●○○

2 Matt Mclain +700 D ●●●○○

3 Sal Stewart +500 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 30.3% · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Lowder Edge +290 0.274 · 90.0 · 10.6% 41.7% 30.3% F B O B 71

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Lowder Edge +400 0.206 · 89.4 · 10.1% 30.0% 25.9% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Peterson +500 0.217 · 88.8 · 8.2% 20.0% 18.3% F B O C 54

· CHC Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Lowder +425 0.208 · 88.4 · 9.7% 16.7% 19.1% F B O C 58

· CHC Michael Busch vs Lowder Edge +525 0.149 · 88.3 · 9.0% 18.2% 15.9% F B O C 51

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Peterson Edge +500 0.210 · 90.1 · 9.0% 14.3% 15.1% F B O C 56

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Peterson Edge +525 0.210 · 93.8 · 9.4% 7.1% 16.4% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Peterson Edge +700 0.157 · 88.0 · 8.2% 20.0% 18.0% F B O D 48

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Lowder +525 0.160 · 88.3 · 6.9% 16.7% 17.0% F B O D 49

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Lowder +950 0.115 · 87.2 · 7.1% 12.5% 8.0% F B O D 42

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Peterson Edge +850 0.106 · 89.4 · 5.7% 11.1% 8.8% F B O D 39

· CIN Eugenio Suarez COOL vs Peterson Edge +400 0.202 · 88.6 · 8.4% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 47

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Peterson Edge +575 0.160 · 91.1 · 8.9% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 46

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Lowder +850 0.096 · 85.9 · 3.1% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for David Peterson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Rhett Lowder — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Bleday Mclain Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Busch Bregman

Legend

attack side — vs Lowder fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Pete Crow-Armstrong +290 · 71

Ian Happ +400 · 61

Jj Bleday +500 · 54

Matt Mclain +700 · 48

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph slight_out 81°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

77°F

1:20p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

79°F

2:20p

↑

4 mph · cross

82°F

3:20p

↑

4 mph · cross

82°F

4:20p

-1

↑

4 mph · in

80°F

5:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 81°F, wind 4 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs David Peterson · LHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 56 C +525 COOL 28 0.210 93.8 9.4% 36.0%vs LHP 398 15.8% 7.1% 16.4% 39

2 Sal Stewart 56 C +500 COOL 29 0.210 90.1 9.0% 26.9%vs LHP 397 16.8% 14.3% 15.1% 46

3 Jj Bleday 54 C +500 COOL 34 0.217 88.8 8.2% 25.0%vs LHP 387 20.0% 20.0% 18.3% 35

4 Matt Mclain 48 D +700 COOL 62 0.157 88.0 8.2% 21.7%vs LHP 394 14.3% 20.0% 18.0% 34

5 Eugenio Suarez 47 D +400 COOL 70 0.202 88.6 8.4% 25.0%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 30

6 Tyler Stephenson 46 D +575 · 85 0.160 91.1 8.9% 5.0%vs LHP 392 8.6% 0.0% 8.5% 24

7 Dane Myers 39 D +850 COOL 133 0.106 89.4 5.7% 12.0%vs LHP 384 5.3% 11.1% 8.8% 36

vs Rhett Lowder · RHP 1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 71 B +290 · 4 0.274 90.0 10.6% 24.2%vs RHP 393 21.6% 41.7% 30.3% 39

2 Ian Happ 61 C+ +400 COOL 12 0.206 89.4 10.1% 25.6%vs RHP 403 18.5% 30.0% 25.9% 29

3 Seiya Suzuki 58 C +425 COOL 22 0.208 88.4 9.7% 21.1%vs RHP 406 16.2% 16.7% 19.1% 32

4 Michael Busch 51 C +525 WARM 50 0.149 88.3 9.0% 12.5%vs RHP 403 12.7% 18.2% 15.9% 23

5 Alex Bregman 49 D +525 WARM 59 0.160 88.3 6.9% 20.0%vs RHP 389 11.5% 16.7% 17.0% 41

6 Carson Kelly 42 D +950 WARM 111 0.115 87.2 7.1% 8.6%vs RHP 410 7.5% 12.5% 8.0% 23

7 Nico Hoerner 33 D +850 WARM 179 0.096 85.9 3.1% 6.9%vs RHP 381 5.3% 0.0% 7.8% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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