TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.18×

COL @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 6 mph in 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

7:15p

-1 ↑

8:15p

-2 ↑

9:15p

-1 ↑

10:15p

-1 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +1

Best of game Matt Olson conv 20 · vs Sugano ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 52 · vs Holmes → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · COL

leak 93

1.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.93 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +255 B ●●●○○

2 Drake Baldwin +330 C+ ●●○○○

3 Michael Harris — C ●○○○○

FADE Grant Holmes RHP · ATL

leak 80

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman +320 B ●●●●●

2 Mickey Moniak +425 C+ ●●●○○

3 Willi Castro +625 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 36.8% · 14D pace 66.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Holmes +320 0.298 · 90.6 · 12.1% 66.7% 36.8% F B O B 75

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Holmes Edge +425 0.262 · 89.6 · 9.4% 18.2% 25.4% F B O C+ 63

· ATL Matt Olson vs Sugano Edge +255 0.278 · 92.6 · 13.9% 15.4% 25.6% F B O B 75

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Sugano Edge +330 0.177 · 91.8 · 12.7% 15.4% 15.3% F B O C+ 61

· COL Willi Castro vs Holmes Edge +625 0.162 · 87.9 · 8.6% 15.4% 13.5% F B O C 51

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Sugano Edge — 0.195 · 90.6 · 11.5% 0.0% 15.9% F B O C 55

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Sugano — 0.173 · 90.1 · 12.4% 0.0% 12.6% F B O C 53

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Sugano Edge +500 0.155 · 90.8 · 9.4% 0.0% 12.0% F B O C 51

· ATL Austin Riley vs Sugano +390 0.142 · 91.4 · 12.3% 0.0% 9.7% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· COL Troy Johnston vs Holmes Edge — 0.119 · 89.6 · 4.3% 12.5% 8.0% F B O D 39

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Holmes +750 0.127 · 87.4 · 7.7% 10.0% 9.1% F B O D 45

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Holmes Edge +950 0.186 · 85.0 · 6.7% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 48

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Sugano Edge +575 0.163 · 86.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 49

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Holmes Edge +850 0.152 · 83.8 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 43

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Sugano Edge — 0.124 · 87.7 · 8.3% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 46

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Sugano +850 0.123 · 86.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Grant Holmes — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tomoyuki Sugano — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Castro Olson Baldwin

Legend

attack side — vs Sugano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Hunter Goodman +320 · 75

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 6 mph in 81°F open

↑

4 mph · in

86°F

7:15p · peak

-1

↑

4 mph · in

82°F

8:15p

-2

↑

5 mph · in

80°F

9:15p

-1

↑

5 mph · in

78°F

10:15p

-1

↑

5 mph · in

77°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 81°F, wind 6 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Grant Holmes · RHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 75 B +320 COOL 1 0.298 90.6 12.1% 39.7%vs RHP 410 25.0% 66.7% 36.8% 9

2 Mickey Moniak 63 C+ +425 WARM 9 0.262 89.6 9.4% 22.8%vs RHP 415 17.6% 18.2% 25.4% 30

3 Willi Castro 51 C +625 · 51 0.162 87.9 8.6% 17.5%vs RHP 409 11.5% 15.4% 13.5% 35

4 Jake Mccarthy 48 D +950 COOL 65 0.186 85.0 6.7% 14.8%vs RHP 416 11.1% 0.0% 12.9% 43

5 Ezequiel Tovar 45 D +750 WARM 90 0.127 87.4 7.7% 15.9%vs RHP 409 7.9% 10.0% 9.1% 21

6 Tj Rumfield 43 D +850 · 102 0.152 83.8 6.3% 14.1%vs RHP 410 5.6% 0.0% 10.5% 31

7 Troy Johnston 39 D — WARM 134 0.119 89.6 4.3% 6.5%vs RHP 415 2.2% 12.5% 8.0% 21

vs Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP 1.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.93 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 75 B +255 · 2 0.278 92.6 13.9% 32.4%vs RHP 408 24.4% 15.4% 25.6% 35

2 Drake Baldwin 61 C+ +330 · 14 0.177 91.8 12.7% 24.6%vs RHP 402 16.7% 15.4% 15.3% 39

3 Michael Harris 55 C — COOL 33 0.195 90.6 11.5% 22.4%vs RHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 39

4 Ronald Acuna 53 C — COOL 40 0.173 90.1 12.4% 22.5%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 30

5 Austin Riley 53 C +390 WARM 41 0.142 91.4 12.3% 17.3%vs RHP 407 9.0% 0.0% 9.7% 24

6 Mike Yastrzemski 51 C +500 WARM 52 0.155 90.8 9.4% 18.3%vs RHP 389 8.1% 0.0% 12.0% 17

7 Ozzie Albies 49 D +575 COOL 61 0.163 86.9 7.1% 12.8%vs RHP 386 13.4% 0.0% 11.8% 41

8 Dominic Smith 46 D — COOL 84 0.124 87.7 8.3% 14.5%vs RHP 392 8.0% 0.0% 9.7% 8

9 Mauricio Dubon 41 D +850 COOL 115 0.123 86.9 7.1% 9.8%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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