TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.16×

PHI @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 8 mph out 89°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:38p

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7:38p

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best window is early — 6:38p at +5

Best of game Josh Lowe conv 15 · vs Painter ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 27 · vs Detmers → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Andrew Painter RHP · PHI

leak 89

1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · leakiest side of this game

1 Josh Lowe +575 D ●●○○○

2 Zach Neto +400 D ●●○○○

3 Vaughn Grissom +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Reid Detmers LHP · LAA

leak 50

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +235 C+ ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +475 D ●●●○○

3 Alec Bohm +525 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 25.9% · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Detmers +235 0.288 · 92.8 · 11.8% 27.3% 25.9% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Detmers +475 0.240 · 90.4 · 9.6% 18.2% 14.4% F B O D 49

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Painter Edge +575 0.147 · 89.1 · 8.3% 16.7% 12.6% F B O D 41

· LAA Zach Neto vs Painter +400 0.195 · 89.5 · 9.9% 16.7% 11.3% F B O D 48

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Painter +750 0.141 · 87.8 · 7.4% 8.3% 11.2% F B O D 37

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Detmers Edge +525 0.139 · 90.5 · 6.8% 10.0% 7.1% F B O D 33

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Detmers — 0.146 · 89.2 · 6.8% 10.0% 6.9% F B O D 32

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Painter +370 0.192 · 89.8 · 11.5% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 48

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Painter — 0.123 · 87.4 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 34

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Detmers — 0.158 · 89.4 · 8.3% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 36

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Detmers Edge +500 0.141 · 88.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 32

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Detmers Edge +575 0.131 · 89.9 · 5.9% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 26

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Detmers — 0.086 · 87.2 · 3.4% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Reid Detmers — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Painter — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Neto Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Painter fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber +235 · 60

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.83× Wind 8 mph out 89°F open

↑

8 mph · out

87°F

6:38p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

84°F

7:38p

↑

6 mph · out

82°F

8:38p

↑

6 mph · out

80°F

9:38p

↑

6 mph · out

79°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 89°F, wind 8 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Reid Detmers · LHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 60 C+ +235 COOL 18 0.288 92.8 11.8% 37.1%vs LHP 402 23.4% 27.3% 25.9% 34

2 Bryce Harper 49 D +475 WARM 60 0.240 90.4 9.6% 12.1%vs LHP 402 19.4% 18.2% 14.4% 32

3 Brandon Marsh 36 D — COOL 157 0.158 89.4 8.3% 16.7%vs LHP 391 11.7% 0.0% 8.0% 25

4 Alec Bohm 33 D +525 WARM 180 0.139 90.5 6.8% 15.8%vs LHP 397 10.6% 10.0% 7.1% 34

5 Bryson Stott 32 D — COOL 182 0.146 89.2 6.8% 11.8%vs LHP 385 7.3% 10.0% 6.9% 32

6 Trea Turner 32 D +500 COOL 183 0.141 88.6 7.0% 8.3%vs LHP 392 12.8% 0.0% 6.5% 28

7 J.T. Realmuto 26 D +575 COOL 197 0.131 89.9 5.9% 4.0%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 26

8 Justin Crawford 20 D — COOL 210 0.086 87.2 3.4% 3.2% 382 2.1% 0.0% 5.3% 29

vs Andrew Painter · RHP 1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 48 D +370 COOL 66 0.192 89.8 11.5% 22.1%vs RHP 409 14.3% 0.0% 11.6% 31

2 Zach Neto 48 D +400 WARM 67 0.195 89.5 9.9% 18.6%vs RHP 404 15.7% 16.7% 11.3% 42

3 Josh Lowe 41 D +575 COOL 116 0.147 89.1 8.3% 17.2%vs RHP 392 9.9% 16.7% 12.6% 27

4 Vaughn Grissom 37 D +750 · 149 0.141 87.8 7.4% 19.5%vs RHP 390 9.0% 8.3% 11.2% 30

5 Oswald Peraza 34 D — COOL 170 0.123 87.4 7.6% 8.3%vs RHP 386 5.3% 0.0% 8.2% 5

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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