TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ TB

Suppressed air · 0.95×

CWS @ TB

Tropicana Field · 7:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Nick Fortes conv 20 · vs Fedde ⟷ Munetaka Murakami conv 23 · vs Martinez → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Erick Fedde RHP · CWS

leak 97

1.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.68 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nick Fortes — D ●●●○○

2 Junior Caminero +255 C+ ●●●○○

3 Cedric Mullins +475 D ●●○○○

FADE Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 39

0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.73 · stingy — thin edge

1 Munetaka Murakami +255 C+ ●●●○○

2 Sam Antonacci +750 D ●●○○○

3 Chase Meidroth +950 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Martinez Edge +255 0.307 · 94.1 · 11.8% 15.4% 29.7% F B O C+ 62

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Fedde +255 0.260 · 92.9 · 9.8% 14.3% 22.1% F B O C+ 62

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Martinez Edge +290 0.235 · 89.1 · 9.3% 8.3% 14.7% F B O C 53

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Martinez +330 0.238 · 90.7 · 10.0% 7.7% 13.4% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TB Nick Fortes vs Fedde — 0.106 · 85.8 · 4.2% 25.0% 14.8% F B O D 37

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Fedde Edge +475 0.146 · 88.0 · 5.4% 20.0% 12.4% F B O D 43

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Martinez Edge +750 0.138 · 87.8 · 6.6% 18.2% 8.9% F B O D 38

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Martinez +950 0.121 · 88.1 · 5.8% 16.7% 8.5% F B O D 35

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Fedde +500 0.163 · 90.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 41

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Martinez Edge +525 0.172 · 88.6 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 41

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Fedde Edge +425 0.154 · 91.0 · 8.7% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 45

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Fedde — 0.077 · 87.3 · 3.4% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 31

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Fedde Edge +950 0.108 · 85.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Martinez Edge +750 0.156 · 87.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 36

· CWS Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Martinez — 0.037 · 89.0 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 26

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Fedde Edge +900 0.061 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 20

· CWS Edgar Quero COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.043 · 90.5 · 4.0% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 27

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Fedde Edge +950 0.072 · 85.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.3% ← leak OFF 27.2% BRK 9.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

21.8% 16.7% 19.3% 20.3% C+ 62 +255

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.4% 14.7% 12.3% 12.7% C 53 +290

Miguel Vargas R

15.7% 12.9% 12.6% 14.5% C 53 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

144

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.0% 5.9% 5.0% 8.7% D 41 +525

163

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.1% 0.0% 5.8% 6.4% D 38 +750

179

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.3% 0.0% 5.4% 5.1% D 36 +750

184

Chase Meidroth R

4.2% 4.2% 6.6% 4.8% D 35 +950

214

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.4% 3.6% 0.0% 2.3% D 27 —

215

Luisangel Acuna R

4.1% 0.0% 5.0% 3.8% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.3% usage) carries Martinez's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.0% ← leak BRK 37.2% OFF 12.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.4% 10.7% 6.1% 12.8% C+ 62 +255

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

116

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

11.2% 13.1% 5.6% 10.6% D 45 +425

126

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.2% 3.8% 8.6% 4.1% D 43 +475

139

Yandy Diaz R

5.5% 10.8% 4.8% 7.2% D 41 +500

170

Nick Fortes R

3.1% 2.0% 0.0% 2.4% D 37 —

185

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.0% 2.1% 3.7% 4.0% D 35 +950

199

Ben Williamson R

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 31 —

208

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% D 30 +950

220

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 20 +900

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.0% usage) carries Fedde's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Antonacci Caminero Mullins Fortes

Legend

attack side — vs Fedde fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof unknown

Park 0.95× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.95× Dome — weather irrelevant — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.73 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 62 C+ +255 · 18 0.307 94.1 11.8% 39.6%vs RHP 407 16.7% 15.4% 29.7% 30

2 Colson Montgomery 53 C +290 COOL 53 0.235 89.1 9.3% 25.0%vs RHP 398 23.3% 8.3% 14.7% 28

3 Miguel Vargas 53 C +330 COOL 55 0.238 90.7 10.0% 15.3%vs RHP 389 19.8% 7.7% 13.4% 40

4 Andrew Benintendi 41 D +525 COOL 144 0.172 88.6 7.7% 15.9%vs RHP 389 12.7% 0.0% 9.7% 27

5 Sam Antonacci 38 D +750 COOL 163 0.138 87.8 6.6% 15.7%vs RHP 390 11.3% 18.2% 8.9% 35

6 Tristan Peters 36 D +750 · 179 0.156 87.3 5.9% 9.8%vs RHP 377 7.8% 0.0% 8.0% 32

7 Chase Meidroth 35 D +950 WARM 184 0.121 88.1 5.8% 16.7%vs RHP 380 7.7% 16.7% 8.5% 36

8 Edgar Quero 27 D — COOL 214 0.043 90.5 4.0% 0.0%vs RHP 389 4.3% 0.0% 5.6% 17

9 Luisangel Acuna 26 D — COOL 215 0.037 89.0 5.0% 8.3%vs RHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 13

vs Erick Fedde · RHP 1.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.68 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 62 C+ +255 COOL 19 0.260 92.9 9.8% 38.6%vs RHP 408 25.7% 14.3% 22.1% 48

2 Jonathan Aranda 45 D +425 · 116 0.154 91.0 8.7% 18.4%vs RHP 387 11.9% 0.0% 8.8% 31

3 Cedric Mullins 43 D +475 COOL 126 0.146 88.0 5.4% 20.3%vs RHP 389 14.3% 20.0% 12.4% 28

4 Yandy Diaz 41 D +500 COOL 139 0.163 90.7 7.2% 21.9%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 46

5 Nick Fortes 37 D — WARM 170 0.106 85.8 4.2% 14.3%vs RHP 396 5.3% 25.0% 14.8% 25

6 Richie Palacios 35 D +950 COOL 185 0.108 85.8 5.4% 12.1%vs RHP 394 3.6% 0.0% 8.2% 17

7 Ben Williamson 31 D — COOL 199 0.077 87.3 3.4% 10.0%vs RHP 398 2.7% 0.0% 8.6% 30

8 Taylor Walls 30 D +950 COOL 208 0.072 85.3 4.5% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 20

9 Chandler Simpson 20 D +900 COOL 220 0.061 83.8 — 3.3%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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