TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 2.00×

DET @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.18× Wind 10 mph out 91°F Roof open

Hourly window

+16 ↑

6:40p

+17 ↑

7:40p

+15 ↑

8:40p

+14 ↑

9:40p

+12 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 7:40p at +17

Best of game Dillon Dingler conv 26 · vs Springs ⟷ Tyler Soderstrom conv 23 · vs Mize → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Jeffrey Springs LHP · ATH

leak 95

2.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.35 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dillon Dingler +260 B ●●●●○

2 Spencer Torkelson +270 C+ ●●●●○

3 Riley Greene +320 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 3

0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Soderstrom +350 C ●●●●○

2 Nick Kurtz +180 C+ ●●●○○

3 Jacob Wilson +750 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 10.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Springs Edge +260 0.247 · 89.4 · 10.1% 16.7% 36.2% F B O B 70

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Springs Edge +270 0.212 · 89.7 · 11.4% 25.0% 27.6% F B O C+ 68

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom COOL vs Mize Edge +350 0.222 · 90.2 · 7.9% 23.1% 23.1% F B O C 56

· ATH Nick Kurtz COOL vs Mize Edge +180 0.230 · 93.4 · 10.9% 16.7% 21.7% F B O C+ 61

· DET Riley Greene vs Springs +320 0.179 · 91.2 · 12.0% 15.4% 14.2% F B O C+ 62

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Springs Edge +340 0.122 · 85.8 · 8.4% 14.3% 10.0% F B O C 50

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Springs — 0.153 · 88.6 · 8.3% 0.0% 10.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Mize +750 0.123 · 84.0 · 4.0% 23.1% 11.8% F B O D 39

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Mize Edge +525 0.155 · 90.0 · 7.0% 10.0% 10.8% F B O D 44

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Mize Edge — 0.114 · 89.2 · 7.0% 9.1% 7.9% F B O D 40

· DET Matt Vierling vs Springs Edge — 0.127 · 87.9 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 47

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Springs +400 0.131 · 88.0 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 48

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Springs — 0.109 · 85.2 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 43

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Mize — 0.077 · 90.1 · 6.4% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 37

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Mize Edge — 0.085 · 86.4 · 2.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.6% ← leak BRK 31.0% OFF 23.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Dillon Dingler R Edge

12.2% 9.4% 7.7% 10.9% B 70 +260

Neutral · 4

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

14.3% 12.1% 16.7% 13.9% C+ 68 +270

Riley Greene L

16.9% 17.2% 7.8% 15.3% C+ 62 +320

Colt Keith L

7.2% 13.2% 3.7% 7.4% C 51 —

Gleyber Torres R Edge

9.0% 5.7% 0.0% 7.5% C 50 +340

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Kevin Mcgonigle L

8.5% 7.4% 1.8% 7.2% D 48 +400

100

Matt Vierling R Edge

7.5% 2.8% 0.0% 5.0% D 47 —

131

Zach Mckinstry L

4.0% 1.9% 0.0% 2.8% D 43 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.6% usage) carries Springs's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.3% BRK 30.9% OFF 23.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Nick Kurtz L Edge

16.7% 21.4% 17.9% 18.2% C+ 61 +180

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

9.0% 16.9% 0.0% 9.6% C 56 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

123

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.9% 4.5% 8.9% 7.4% D 44 +525

153

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.8% 13.5% 2.1% 7.0% D 40 —

155

Jacob Wilson R

4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% D 39 +750

175

Henry Bolte R

5.8% 7.7% 5.6% 6.3% D 37 —

198

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.2% D 31 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Mize's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Torkelson Greene Kurtz Soderstrom Wilson

Legend

attack side — vs Springs fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Spencer Torkelson +270 · 68

Tyler Soderstrom +350 · 56

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.18× Wind 10 mph out 91°F open

+16

↑

10 mph · out

89°F

6:40p

+17

↑

11 mph · out

86°F

7:40p · peak

+15

↑

10 mph · out

83°F

8:40p

+14

↑

10 mph · out

79°F

9:40p

+12

↑

9 mph · out

76°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 2.00× 91°F, wind 10 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +7 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jeffrey Springs · LHP 2.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.35 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 70 B +260 COOL 5 0.247 89.4 10.1% 20.0%vs LHP 396 19.0% 16.7% 36.2% 34

2 Spencer Torkelson 68 C+ +270 · 8 0.212 89.7 11.4% 10.7%vs LHP 394 17.1% 25.0% 27.6% 36

3 Riley Greene 62 C+ +320 WARM 20 0.179 91.2 12.0% 10.0%vs LHP 399 12.1% 15.4% 14.2% 36

4 Colt Keith 51 C — COOL 70 0.153 88.6 8.3% 9.9% 389 6.7% 0.0% 10.8% 30

5 Gleyber Torres 50 C +340 WARM 77 0.122 85.8 8.4% 9.1%vs LHP 391 7.9% 14.3% 10.0% 20

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 48 D +400 COOL 87 0.131 88.0 8.2% 6.9%vs LHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 42

7 Matt Vierling 47 D — WARM 100 0.127 87.9 6.8% 7.7%vs LHP 377 6.8% 0.0% 9.7% 23

8 Zach Mckinstry 43 D — WARM 131 0.109 85.2 5.1% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 33

vs Casey Mize · RHP 0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nick Kurtz 61 C+ +180 COOL 23 0.230 93.4 10.9% 41.7%vs RHP 412 20.4% 16.7% 21.7% 7

2 Tyler Soderstrom 56 C +350 COOL 38 0.222 90.2 7.9% 20.8%vs RHP 405 16.0% 23.1% 23.1% 36

3 Carlos Cortes 44 D +525 COOL 123 0.155 90.0 7.0% 16.7%vs RHP 403 5.3% 10.0% 10.8% 17

4 Lawrence Butler 40 D — WARM 153 0.114 89.2 7.0% 18.8%vs RHP 405 4.5% 9.1% 7.9% 26

5 Jacob Wilson 39 D +750 WARM 155 0.123 84.0 4.0% 16.1%vs RHP 386 7.5% 23.1% 11.8% 50

6 Henry Bolte 37 D — COOL 175 0.077 90.1 6.4% 0.0%vs RHP 422 7.1% 0.0% 7.3% 23

7 Jeff Mcneil 31 D — WARM 198 0.085 86.4 2.7% 9.1%vs RHP 377 3.2% 0.0% 6.9% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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