TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.58×

BOS @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.31× Wind 6 mph out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+17 ↑

7:10p

+16 ↑

8:10p

+15 ↑

9:10p

+13 ↑

10:10p

+12 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +17

Best of game Max Muncy conv 40 · vs Suarez ⟷ Willson Contreras conv 26 · vs Henriquez → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Ranger Suarez LHP · BOS

leak 92

0.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●●

2 Dalton Rushing +525 C ●●●●○

3 Shohei Ohtani +245 C+ ●●●○○

FADE Edgardo Henriquez RHP

leak 3

0.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.88 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras +350 C+ ●●●●○

2 Wilyer Abreu +390 C ●●●●○

3 Ceddanne Rafaela +575 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs Suarez — 0.247 · 90.3 · 8.7% 36.4% 43.4% F B O C+ 63

· — Willson Contreras vs Henriquez +350 0.253 · 90.6 · 8.0% 21.4% 30.9% F B O C+ 63

· — Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Henriquez Edge +390 0.180 · 89.7 · 7.4% 26.7% 23.0% F B O C 54

· LAD Dalton Rushing vs Suarez +525 0.214 · 89.5 · 8.2% 18.2% 29.6% F B O C 54

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Suarez +245 0.246 · 93.7 · 9.5% 7.7% 25.8% F B O C+ 61

· — Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Henriquez +575 0.200 · 88.8 · 6.6% 9.1% 10.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· — Ceddanne Rafaela vs Henriquez +575 0.163 · 86.4 · 4.6% 26.7% 13.4% F B O D 46

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Suarez +500 0.135 · 88.9 · 6.0% 16.7% 13.3% F B O D 42

· — Masataka Yoshida vs Henriquez Edge +625 0.118 · 88.5 · 3.4% 15.4% 9.4% F B O D 39

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Suarez Edge +400 0.194 · 89.1 · 6.6% 7.7% 14.3% F B O D 49

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Suarez Edge +475 0.175 · 90.6 · 6.6% 7.7% 12.0% F B O D 46

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Suarez +475 0.185 · 90.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 16.7% F B O D 49

· — Caleb Durbin COOL vs Henriquez +625 0.153 · 84.0 · 3.3% 6.7% 10.0% F B O D 40

· — Jarren Duran COOL vs Henriquez Edge +500 0.142 · 89.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 44

· — Carlos Narvaez vs Henriquez +700 0.090 · 91.4 · 5.6% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 37

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Suarez Edge +475 0.139 · 89.1 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 66.4% ← leak BRK 19.1% OFF 14.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Max Muncy L

16.8% 15.0% 6.8% 13.9% C+ 63 —

Shohei Ohtani L

21.1% 10.3% 14.9% 16.7% C+ 61 +245

Dalton Rushing L

13.0% 17.5% 2.9% 11.9% C 54 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Freddie Freeman L

10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.8% D 49 +475

Andy Pages R Edge

7.5% 8.7% 9.7% 8.0% D 49 +400

105

Mookie Betts R Edge

10.1% 3.6% 6.7% 8.2% D 46 +475

133

Kyle Tucker L

9.8% 3.4% 1.5% 6.6% D 42 +500

149

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

7.6% 13.2% 8.3% 8.8% D 40 +475

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.4% usage) carries Suarez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 72.4% BRK 27.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Willson Contreras R

11.9% 14.8% 13.9% C+ 63 +350

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.3% 12.3% 12.1% C 54 +390

Andruw Monasterio R

8.9% 9.8% 9.9% C 50 +575

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

102

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.9% 5.6% 4.8% D 46 +575

121

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.9% 7.0% 10.0% D 44 +500

152

Caleb Durbin R

2.7% 1.4% 2.5% D 40 +625

157

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

3.4% 0.0% 2.7% D 39 +625

168

Carlos Narvaez R

7.8% 8.8% 7.1% D 37 +700

Read the columns: no single family leads Henriquez's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Ohtani Rushing Tucker Contreras Abreu Rafaela

Legend

attack side — vs Suarez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Max Muncy — · 63

Willson Contreras +350 · 63

Wilyer Abreu +390 · 54

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.31× Wind 6 mph out 86°F open

+17

↑

6 mph · out

85°F

7:10p · peak

+16

↑

5 mph · out

83°F

8:10p

+15

↑

4 mph · out

81°F

9:10p

+13

↑

3 mph · out

79°F

10:10p

+12

↑

2 mph · out

78°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.58× 86°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ranger Suarez · LHP 0.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 63 C+ — · 14 0.247 90.3 8.7% 28.6%vs LHP 411 19.2% 36.4% 43.4% 26

2 Shohei Ohtani 61 C+ +245 · 22 0.246 93.7 9.5% 29.0%vs LHP 406 19.2% 7.7% 25.8% 35

3 Dalton Rushing 54 C +525 WARM 46 0.214 89.5 8.2% 9.1%vs LHP 400 11.5% 18.2% 29.6% 17

4 Freddie Freeman 49 D +475 COOL 79 0.185 90.1 7.3% 15.4%vs LHP 398 12.4% 0.0% 16.7% 37

5 Andy Pages 49 D +400 COOL 82 0.194 89.1 6.6% 16.1%vs LHP 390 14.2% 7.7% 14.3% 36

6 Mookie Betts 46 D +475 · 105 0.175 90.6 6.6% 6.1%vs LHP 389 10.4% 7.7% 12.0% 37

7 Kyle Tucker 42 D +500 WARM 133 0.135 88.9 6.0% 7.7%vs LHP 397 6.9% 16.7% 13.3% 33

8 Teoscar Hernandez 40 D +475 COOL 149 0.139 89.1 7.1% 12.5%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 30

vs Edgardo Henriquez · RHP 0.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.88 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 63 C+ +350 · 17 0.253 90.6 8.0% 33.3%vs RHP 406 21.0% 21.4% 30.9% 24

2 Wilyer Abreu 54 C +390 COOL 47 0.180 89.7 7.4% 12.9%vs RHP 406 14.3% 26.7% 23.0% 39

3 Andruw Monasterio 50 C +575 COOL 76 0.200 88.8 6.6% 3.5%vs RHP 390 18.2% 9.1% 10.1% 25

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 46 D +575 WARM 102 0.163 86.4 4.6% 14.8%vs RHP 374 11.5% 26.7% 13.4% 45

5 Jarren Duran 44 D +500 COOL 121 0.142 89.4 6.6% 27.3%vs RHP 398 11.9% 0.0% 12.8% 40

6 Caleb Durbin 40 D +625 COOL 152 0.153 84.0 3.3% 20.6%vs RHP 373 8.9% 6.7% 10.0% 43

7 Masataka Yoshida 39 D +625 · 157 0.118 88.5 3.4% 9.3%vs RHP 367 10.2% 15.4% 9.4% 34

8 Carlos Narvaez 37 D +700 WARM 168 0.090 91.4 5.6% 10.7%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 8

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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