TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.13×

MIA @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 9 mph out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:10p

+9 ↑

8:10p

+8 ↑

9:10p

+8 ↑

10:10p

+7 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 8:10p at +9

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 18 · vs Junk ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 24 · vs Peralta → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 92

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor +390 D ●●●○○

2 Marcus Semien +500 D ●●●○○

3 Brett Baty — D ●●○○○

FADE Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 88

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers +330 C ●●●●○

2 Heriberto Hernández +370 D ●●○○○

3 Liam Hicks +625 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: 12.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIA Kyle Stowers ✶ vs Peralta Edge +330 0.214 · 92.0 · 8.2% 23.1% 25.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Junk Edge +390 0.186 · 91.6 · 8.3% 15.4% 19.8% F B O D 47

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Junk +500 0.142 · 86.6 · 7.3% 20.0% 14.7% F B O D 41

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Peralta +370 0.245 · 92.2 · 8.5% 0.0% 24.8% F B O D 48

· NYM Brett Baty vs Junk Edge — 0.105 · 89.6 · 7.7% 9.1% 11.6% F B O D 37

· MIA Liam Hicks vs Peralta Edge +625 0.155 · 85.2 · 4.6% 7.7% 10.6% F B O D 38

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Junk +390 0.187 · 90.1 · 10.6% 0.0% 17.3% F B O D 44

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Peralta Edge +750 0.094 · 86.8 · 4.6% 9.1% 7.3% F B O D 31

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Junk Edge +625 0.144 · — · 6.6% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 34

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Peralta +700 0.161 · 89.2 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 38

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Junk Edge +525 0.130 · 89.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 37

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Junk +575 0.110 · 89.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 34

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.111 · 87.1 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Peralta +950 0.127 · 86.8 · 3.0% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 24.0% OFF 20.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kyle Stowers L Edge

11.6% 17.6% 5.4% 12.0% C 52 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Heriberto Hernández R

12.6% 13.0% 18.8% 13.3% D 48 +370

162

Liam Hicks L Edge

3.3% 5.7% 3.6% 3.9% D 38 +625

164

Otto Lopez R

9.9% 3.8% 1.9% 6.6% D 38 +700

200

Jakob Marsee L Edge

2.7% 2.3% 8.3% 3.4% D 31 +750

201

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.9% 2.7% 3.1% 4.1% D 31 —

205

Javier Sanoja R

1.5% 2.4% 0.0% 1.6% D 30 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries Peralta's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 42.2% ← leak FB 39.6% OFF 18.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

4.5% 11.7% 8.3% 9.9% D 47 +390

119

Francisco Alvarez R

16.4% 16.3% 15.8% 16.3% D 44 +390

142

Marcus Semien R

2.5% 10.6% 8.3% 7.7% D 41 +500

172

Brett Baty L Edge

13.3% 7.7% 4.4% 8.2% D 37 —

174

Carson Benge L Edge

9.7% 7.4% 6.1% 7.8% D 37 +525

187

A.J. Ewing L Edge

7.1% 7.9% 0.0% 6.3% D 34 +625

190

Bo Bichette R

11.8% 4.4% 0.0% 6.3% D 34 +575

Read the columns: the breaking family (42.2% usage) carries Junk's damage — BRK is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Lindor Semien

Legend

attack side — vs Junk fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Stowers +330 · 52

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 9 mph out 76°F open

↑

9 mph · out

80°F

7:10p

↑

10 mph · out

78°F

8:10p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

77°F

9:10p

↑

9 mph · out

75°F

10:10p

↑

8 mph · out

74°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.13× 76°F, wind 9 mph S (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 52 C +330 · 58 0.214 92.0 8.2% 24.1%vs RHP 395 13.8% 23.1% 25.2% 29

2 Heriberto Hernández 48 D +370 WARM 86 0.245 92.2 8.5% 18.4%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 24.8% 31

3 Liam Hicks 38 D +625 · 162 0.155 85.2 4.6% 22.0%vs RHP 378 14.3% 7.7% 10.6% 38

4 Otto Lopez 38 D +700 COOL 164 0.161 89.2 6.0% 12.5%vs RHP 402 7.6% 0.0% 8.9% 41

5 Jakob Marsee 31 D +750 COOL 200 0.094 86.8 4.6% 7.3%vs RHP 380 6.9% 9.1% 7.3% 21

6 Xavier Edwards 31 D — COOL 201 0.111 87.1 4.8% 3.3%vs RHP 396 4.7% 0.0% 6.8% 34

7 Javier Sanoja 30 D +950 WARM 205 0.127 86.8 3.0% 3.3%vs RHP 385 4.3% 0.0% 6.2% 39

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 47 D +390 WARM 97 0.186 91.6 8.3% 13.9%vs RHP 395 10.3% 15.4% 19.8% 33

2 Francisco Alvarez 44 D +390 · 119 0.187 90.1 10.6% 28.6%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 15

3 Marcus Semien 41 D +500 WARM 142 0.142 86.6 7.3% 18.2%vs RHP 391 11.4% 20.0% 14.7% 24

4 Brett Baty 37 D — · 172 0.105 89.6 7.7% 11.8%vs RHP 395 5.9% 9.1% 11.6% 14

5 Carson Benge 37 D +525 COOL 174 0.130 89.1 7.3% 13.1%vs RHP 399 8.4% 0.0% 8.2% 24

6 A.J. Ewing 34 D +625 COOL 187 0.144 — 6.6% 15.2%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 32

7 Bo Bichette 34 D +575 COOL 190 0.110 89.3 6.6% 9.7%vs RHP 385 8.5% 0.0% 7.1% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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