TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ CLE

Neutral air · 1.04×

AZ @ CLE

Progressive Field · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 2 mph cross 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

7:10p

-1 ↑

8:10p

+0 ↑

9:10p

+3 ↑

10:10p

+3 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks +3

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 16 · vs Bibee ⟷ Kyle Manzardo conv 27 · vs Bratt → edge: Kyle Manzardo

ATTACK Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 92

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +525 D ●●○○○

2 Corbin Carroll +330 C ●●○○○

3 Ketel Marte +350 C ●●○○○

FADE Mitch Bratt LHP · AZ

leak 83

2.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.85 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Manzardo — C ●●●●○

2 Rhys Hoskins +370 C ●●●○○

3 Travis Bazzana +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Manzardo: 11.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Kyle Manzardo ✶ HOT vs Bratt — 0.165 · 89.5 · 10.0% 36.4% 18.6% F B O C 53

· CLE Rhys Hoskins vs Bratt Edge +370 0.194 · 88.7 · 10.2% 12.5% 21.4% F B O C 53

· AZ Corbin Carroll HOT vs Bibee Edge +330 0.231 · 91.8 · 10.2% 15.4% 16.3% F B O C 54

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Bibee Edge +350 0.199 · 90.5 · 9.4% 16.7% 12.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Bratt +700 0.155 · 88.3 · 6.2% 20.0% 12.3% F B O D 45

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Bibee +525 0.176 · 85.3 · 7.7% 18.2% 13.6% F B O D 45

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Bibee +625 0.146 · 89.6 · 8.2% 15.4% 8.5% F B O D 42

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Bibee Edge +750 0.124 · 87.1 · 5.1% 15.4% 7.9% F B O D 36

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Bratt Edge +700 0.128 · 86.6 · 5.1% 6.7% 7.5% F B O D 38

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Bratt Edge +475 0.191 · 87.5 · 7.9% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 43

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Bratt +475 0.160 · 91.1 · 7.4% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 43

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Bratt Edge +370 0.161 · 89.3 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 40

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.125 · 88.8 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 38

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Bibee Edge +950 0.134 · 87.5 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 35

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Bratt — 0.057 · 83.5 · 1.6% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 70.7% ← leak BRK 14.8% OFF 14.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.6% 14.9% 12.1% 12.2% C 54 +330

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.3% 7.5% 3.8% 10.3% C 51 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

111

Nolan Arenado R

10.3% 2.3% 3.7% 7.1% D 45 +525

138

Gabriel Moreno R

7.5% 7.8% 9.4% 7.8% D 42 +625

165

Adrian Del Castillo L Edge

11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% D 38 —

180

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.7% 1.8% 2.5% 3.1% D 36 +750

186

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.3% 1.7% 1.6% 3.2% D 35 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.7% usage) carries Bibee's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.3% ← leak BRK 40.3% OFF 7.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Rhys Hoskins R Edge

10.5% 15.4% 13.3% 12.1% C 53 +370

Kyle Manzardo L

12.6% 13.0% 8.1% 11.9% C 53 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

115

Travis Bazzana L

4.3% 3.9% 3.7% 4.1% D 45 +700

124

Angel Martinez S Edge

5.8% 15.2% 3.6% 7.4% D 43 +475

125

Chase Delauter L

9.1% 5.2% 1.7% 6.6% D 43 +475

147

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 40 +370

167

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.4% 5.1% 1.2% 3.1% D 38 +700

216

Steven Kwan L

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.3% usage) carries Bratt's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Marte Arenado Hoskins Manzardo Bazzana

Legend

attack side — vs Bibee fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Manzardo — · 53

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 2 mph cross 82°F open

-1

↑

2 mph · cross

83°F

7:10p

-1

↑

1 mph · cross

82°F

8:10p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

78°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

10:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

72°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 82°F, wind 2 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 54 C +330 HOT 48 0.231 91.8 10.2% 16.7%vs RHP 401 13.5% 15.4% 16.3% 38

2 Ketel Marte 51 C +350 COOL 68 0.199 90.5 9.4% 14.5%vs RHP 412 15.6% 16.7% 12.8% 44

3 Nolan Arenado 45 D +525 · 111 0.176 85.3 7.7% 19.2%vs RHP 391 13.1% 18.2% 13.6% 32

4 Gabriel Moreno 42 D +625 · 138 0.146 89.6 8.2% 15.6%vs RHP 400 9.4% 15.4% 8.5% 46

5 Adrian Del Castillo 38 D — COOL 165 0.125 88.8 7.6% 16.7%vs RHP 400 7.5% 0.0% 8.7% 14

6 Geraldo Perdomo 36 D +750 COOL 180 0.124 87.1 5.1% 10.0%vs RHP 382 7.4% 15.4% 7.9% 41

7 Ildemaro Vargas 35 D +950 COOL 186 0.134 87.5 5.2% 9.4%vs RHP 399 5.1% 0.0% 8.0% 33

vs Mitch Bratt · LHP 2.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.85 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 53 C +370 WARM 50 0.194 88.7 10.2% 21.1%vs LHP 386 13.2% 12.5% 21.4% 14

2 Kyle Manzardo ✶ 53 C — HOT 52 0.165 89.5 10.0% 10.0%vs LHP 386 13.5% 36.4% 18.6% 19

3 Travis Bazzana 45 D +700 WARM 115 0.155 88.3 6.2% 10.0%vs LHP 396 12.1% 20.0% 12.3% 34

4 Angel Martinez 43 D +475 COOL 124 0.191 87.5 7.9% 22.2%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 11

5 Chase Delauter 43 D +475 · 125 0.160 91.1 7.4% 14.3%vs LHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 36

6 Jose Ramirez 40 D +370 COOL 147 0.161 89.3 7.1% 22.7%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 29

7 Brayan Rocchio 38 D +700 · 167 0.128 86.6 5.1% 10.7%vs LHP 386 7.8% 6.7% 7.5% 44

8 Steven Kwan 25 D — COOL 216 0.057 83.5 1.6% 0.0%vs LHP 381 1.0% 0.0% 7.2% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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