TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.60×

NYY @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 11 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 11 mph out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

1:20p

+12 ↑

2:20p

+11 ↑

3:20p

+11 ↑

4:20p

+10 ↑

5:20p

best window is early — 1:20p at +12

Best of game Ben Rice conv 24 · vs Imanaga ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 28 · vs Warren → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 91

1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice +265 B ●●●●○

2 Paul Goldschmidt +330 C ●●○○○

3 Trent Grisham +370 C ●●○○○

FADE Will Warren RHP · NYY

leak 88

1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.47 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +265 C+ ●●●●○

2 Alex Bregman +500 D ●●○○○

3 Michael Busch +400 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Warren Edge +265 0.254 · 90.1 · 9.5% 23.1% 32.8% F B O C+ 64

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Imanaga +265 0.303 · 92.2 · 12.1% 20.0% 27.6% F B O B 71

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Imanaga Edge +330 0.215 · 86.4 · 10.1% 8.3% 18.2% F B O C 56

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs Imanaga +370 0.169 · 90.9 · 9.6% 14.3% 11.5% F B O C 51

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Warren Edge +390 0.202 · 89.5 · 9.5% 7.7% 15.8% F B O C 55

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Warren Edge — 0.234 · 91.7 · 9.3% 0.0% 17.9% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Warren +500 0.129 · 87.8 · 5.7% 16.7% 9.6% F B O D 41

· CHC Michael Busch vs Warren Edge +400 0.151 · 88.4 · 8.6% 15.4% 10.7% F B O D 48

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Warren +800 0.095 · 86.0 · 2.5% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 32

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Warren +475 0.188 · 89.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 48

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Imanaga Edge +575 0.137 · 83.7 · 5.6% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.9% ← leak OFF 33.0% BRK 19.1% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L

18.5% 12.5% 12.9% 15.8% B 71 +265

Neutral · 2

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

14.8% 10.3% 4.8% 11.2% C 56 +330

Trent Grisham L

11.5% 5.6% 8.9% 10.2% C 51 +370

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

160

Jose Caballero R Edge

— — — — D 38 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.9% usage) carries Imanaga's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.5% ← leak BRK 23.8% OFF 10.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

10.0% 12.3% 15.0% 11.7% C+ 64 +265

Ian Happ S Edge

15.6% 17.5% 1.6% 12.3% C 55 +390

Michael Conforto L Edge

10.4% 18.8% 13.6% 12.4% C 52 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Dansby Swanson R

6.8% 7.1% 13.3% 7.6% D 48 +475

Michael Busch L Edge

12.6% 4.6% 2.9% 9.7% D 48 +400

145

Alex Bregman R

3.2% 6.7% 6.7% 4.4% D 41 +500

197

Nico Hoerner R

1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% D 32 +800

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.5% usage) carries Warren's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Crow-Armstrong Busch Bregman

Legend

attack side — vs Imanaga fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Crow-Armstrong +265 · 64

Ben Rice +265 · 71

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 11 mph out 80°F open

+12

↑

11 mph · out

80°F

1:20p · peak

+12

↑

10 mph · out

79°F

2:20p

+11

↑

9 mph · out

79°F

3:20p

+11

↑

9 mph · out

77°F

4:20p

+10

↑

10 mph · out

76°F

5:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.60× 80°F, wind 11 mph S (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 71 B +265 WARM 4 0.303 92.2 12.1% 45.0%vs LHP 390 26.5% 20.0% 27.6% 35

2 Paul Goldschmidt 56 C +330 · 39 0.215 86.4 10.1% 33.3%vs LHP 390 16.7% 8.3% 18.2% 30

3 Trent Grisham 51 C +370 COOL 69 0.169 90.9 9.6% 11.1%vs LHP 390 10.8% 14.3% 11.5% 39

4 Jose Caballero 38 D +575 COOL 160 0.137 83.7 5.6% 25.0%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 25

vs Will Warren · RHP 1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.47 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 64 C+ +265 WARM 13 0.254 90.1 9.5% 24.4%vs RHP 393 20.2% 23.1% 32.8% 33

2 Ian Happ 55 C +390 COOL 44 0.202 89.5 9.5% 23.4%vs RHP 404 17.6% 7.7% 15.8% 32

3 Michael Conforto 52 C — COOL 59 0.234 91.7 9.3% 16.3%vs RHP 399 8.1% 0.0% 17.9% 19

4 Dansby Swanson 48 D +475 COOL 91 0.188 89.5 7.5% 17.2%vs RHP 403 12.1% 0.0% 13.2% 34

5 Michael Busch 48 D +400 · 94 0.151 88.4 8.6% 14.9%vs RHP 403 12.7% 15.4% 10.7% 43

6 Alex Bregman 41 D +500 · 145 0.129 87.8 5.7% 15.9%vs RHP 389 9.4% 16.7% 9.6% 38

7 Nico Hoerner 32 D +800 COOL 197 0.095 86.0 2.5% 5.2%vs RHP 383 4.7% 8.3% 7.6% 48

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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