TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.45×

PHI @ BAL

Camden Yards · 7:05p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.31× Wind 4 mph slight_out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

7:05p

+12 ↑

8:05p

+13 ↑

9:05p

+13 ↑

10:05p

+14 ↑

11:05p

conditions build late — the 11:05p window peaks +14

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 30 · vs Proxy ⟷ Bryce Harper conv 28 · vs Young → edge: Coby Mayo

ATTACK PHI Bullpen Proxy

leak 75

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Pete Alonso +305 C+ ●●○○○

3 Gunnar Henderson +370 C ●●○○○

FADE Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 59

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Harper +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 Trea Turner +525 C ●●●●○

3 Kyle Schwarber +164 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Coby Mayo: Match 34.2% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Coby Mayo ✶ HOT vs Proxy +390 0.216 · 92.6 · 11.9% 25.0% 34.2% F B O C+ 64

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Young Edge +305 0.239 · 90.2 · 8.3% 18.2% 36.9% F B O C+ 63

· PHI Trea Turner HOT vs Young +525 0.149 · 88.9 · 6.3% 27.3% 19.3% F B O C 50

· PHI Kyle Schwarber COOL vs Young Edge +164 0.293 · 93.3 · 10.3% 11.1% 25.7% F B O C+ 69

· — Pete Alonso vs Proxy +305 0.212 · 93.9 · 12.1% 7.7% 20.2% F B O C+ 63

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Young Edge +475 0.175 · 89.5 · 7.4% 11.1% 15.3% F B O C 51

· — Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Proxy +370 0.176 · 89.4 · 7.2% 7.7% 15.9% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Young +700 0.141 · 90.7 · 5.6% 18.2% 11.9% F B O D 46

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Young Edge +525 0.158 · 89.2 · 6.6% 9.1% 11.6% F B O D 47

· — Leody Taveras COOL vs Proxy +700 0.122 · 87.4 · 4.7% 10.0% 10.4% F B O D 40

· — Taylor Ward vs Proxy +525 0.101 · 89.2 · 5.6% 7.7% 10.2% F B O D 40

· — Colton Cowser COOL vs Proxy +525 0.122 · 86.8 · 10.2% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 48

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Young +700 0.130 · — · 5.1% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 37

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Young Edge +950 0.082 · 86.5 · 2.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.6% ← leak BRK 26.1% OFF 20.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

17.7% 14.9% 26.9% 17.8% C+ 69 +164

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.6% 14.2% 6.8% 11.6% C+ 63 +305

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.2% 14.1% 2.6% 9.1% C 51 +475

Trea Turner R

8.4% 4.8% 2.8% 6.6% C 50 +525

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Bryson Stott L Edge

9.3% 4.7% 5.6% 7.2% D 47 +525

106

Alec Bohm R

5.0% 4.4% 9.1% 5.2% D 46 +700

169

J.T. Realmuto R

4.4% 3.9% 6.2% 4.4% D 37 +700

192

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% D 33 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.6% usage) carries Young's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for PHI Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Marsh Turner Bohm Mayo Alonso

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Coby Mayo +390 · 64

Trea Turner +525 · 50

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.31× Wind 4 mph slight_out 83°F open

+12

↑

4 mph · slight_out

84°F

7:05p

+12

↑

4 mph · slight_out

83°F

8:05p

+13

↑

4 mph · slight_out

81°F

9:05p

+13

↑

4 mph · out

79°F

10:05p

+14

↑

4 mph · out

77°F

11:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.45× 83°F, wind 4 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Young · RHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber 69 C+ +164 COOL 7 0.293 93.3 10.3% 41.2%vs RHP 403 24.2% 11.1% 25.7% 20

2 Bryce Harper 63 C+ +305 WARM 15 0.239 90.2 8.3% 35.9%vs RHP 401 19.2% 18.2% 36.9% 26

3 Brandon Marsh 51 C +475 · 65 0.175 89.5 7.4% 22.8%vs RHP 393 13.3% 11.1% 15.3% 26

4 Trea Turner 50 C +525 HOT 71 0.149 88.9 6.3% 20.3%vs RHP 392 13.7% 27.3% 19.3% 33

5 Bryson Stott 47 D +525 · 99 0.158 89.2 6.6% 9.7%vs RHP 389 8.1% 9.1% 11.6% 26

6 Alec Bohm 46 D +700 WARM 106 0.141 90.7 5.6% 18.4%vs RHP 396 11.9% 18.2% 11.9% 36

7 J.T. Realmuto 37 D +700 COOL 169 0.130 — 5.1% 18.2%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 24

8 Justin Crawford 33 D +950 COOL 192 0.082 86.5 2.3% 5.6%vs RHP 382 2.7% 0.0% 9.0% 20

vs PHI Bullpen Proxy 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Coby Mayo ✶ 64 C+ +390 HOT 25 0.216 92.6 11.9% 19.2% 405 16.0% 25.0% 34.2% 16

2 Pete Alonso 63 C+ +305 · 30 0.212 93.9 12.1% 20.6% 401 18.5% 7.7% 20.2% 37

3 Gunnar Henderson 52 C +370 COOL 84 0.176 89.4 7.2% 16.1% 390 16.0% 7.7% 15.9% 34

4 Colton Cowser 48 D +525 COOL 118 0.122 86.8 10.2% 14.5% 417 13.2% 0.0% 11.6% 14

5 Leody Taveras 40 D +700 COOL 176 0.122 87.4 4.7% 7.4% 419 4.1% 10.0% 10.4% 26

6 Taylor Ward 40 D +525 · 177 0.101 89.2 5.6% 6.6% 388 6.4% 7.7% 10.2% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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