TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ TOR

Rogers Centre is live · 1.16×

STL @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 8 mph out 83°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:07p

+7 ↑

8:07p

+6 ↑

9:07p

+4 ↑

10:07p

+3 ↑

11:07p

best window is early — 7:07p at +8

Best of game George Springer conv 21 · vs Leahy ⟷ Jj Wetherholt conv 23 · vs Cease → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 57

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 George Springer +400 D ●●●○○

2 Brandon Valenzuela — D ●●●○○

3 Kazuma Okamoto +330 C ●●○○○

FADE Dylan Cease RHP · TOR

leak 4

0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Wetherholt +575 D ●●●○○

2 José Fermín — D ●○○○○

3 Jordan Walker +400 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 19.5% · 14D pace 8.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ COOL vs Leahy +330 0.222 · 90.6 · 12.0% 8.3% 19.5% F B O C 57

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Cease +400 0.218 · 93.2 · 8.6% 0.0% 13.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Cease Edge +575 0.136 · 89.9 · 6.3% 33.3% 11.8% F B O D 37

· TOR George Springer vs Leahy +400 0.169 · 88.6 · 9.1% 25.0% 16.4% F B O D 48

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela HOT vs Leahy Edge — 0.165 · 88.2 · 9.4% 16.7% 19.7% F B O D 46

· STL José Fermín vs Cease — 0.127 · 86.1 · 3.6% 9.1% 6.1% F B O D 30

· STL Alec Burleson vs Cease Edge +475 0.177 · 91.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 42

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Cease Edge +750 0.130 · 86.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 33

· TOR Daulton Varsho vs Leahy Edge +500 0.136 · 86.2 · 8.3% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 38

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Leahy Edge +850 0.109 · 86.4 · 3.2% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 30

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Leahy Edge +750 0.122 · 85.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 32

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Cease +625 0.138 · 89.1 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 30

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Leahy +950 0.128 · 85.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 33

· STL Masyn Winn vs Cease +850 0.080 · 88.1 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.7% ← leak BRK 43.5% OFF 11.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

14.3% 12.2% 14.7% 13.7% C 50 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

134

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.2% 11.8% 11.3% 11.4% D 42 +475

171

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

10.0% 2.4% 2.2% 7.0% D 37 +575

193

Nathan Church L Edge

8.6% 7.2% 5.8% 7.5% D 33 +750

203

Ivan Herrera R

5.5% 5.5% 7.1% 5.7% D 30 +625

206

José Fermín R

3.0% 2.6% 0.0% 2.4% D 30 —

217

Masyn Winn R

3.6% 2.2% 3.3% 3.1% D 25 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.7% usage) carries Cease's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 45.6% FB 41.1% OFF 13.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

8.3% 15.8% 17.6% 13.8% C 57 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

George Springer R

6.4% 8.6% 8.7% 7.9% D 48 +400

101

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

16.7% 5.1% 12.5% 8.7% D 46 —

166

Daulton Varsho L Edge

2.7% 9.1% 5.3% 6.7% D 38 +500

194

Ernie Clement R

2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% D 33 +950

195

Andres Gimenez L Edge

2.5% 4.1% 5.7% 3.9% D 32 +750

204

Nathan Lukes L Edge

2.1% 0.0% 2.7% 1.0% D 30 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Leahy's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wetherholt Okamoto Springer Valenzuela

Legend

attack side — vs Leahy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.97× Wind 8 mph out 83°F retractable

↑

8 mph · out

83°F

7:07p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

82°F

8:07p

↑

7 mph · out

80°F

9:07p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

77°F

10:07p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

75°F

11:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 83°F, wind 8 mph S (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Dylan Cease · RHP 0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 50 C +400 COOL 78 0.218 93.2 8.6% 30.9%vs RHP 406 17.5% 0.0% 13.1% 40

2 Alec Burleson 42 D +475 · 134 0.177 91.7 7.8% 20.0%vs RHP 407 14.4% 0.0% 11.7% 45

3 Jj Wetherholt 37 D +575 · 171 0.136 89.9 6.3% 17.7%vs RHP 391 16.7% 33.3% 11.8% 45

4 Nathan Church 33 D +750 COOL 193 0.130 86.2 6.4% 19.4%vs RHP 388 8.3% 0.0% 8.6% 29

5 Ivan Herrera 30 D +625 · 203 0.138 89.1 5.5% 17.5%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 42

6 José Fermín 30 D — WARM 206 0.127 86.1 3.6% 9.5%vs RHP 388 7.0% 9.1% 6.1% 31

7 Masyn Winn 25 D +850 · 217 0.080 88.1 4.1% 9.8%vs RHP 390 3.9% 0.0% 6.1% 37

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 57 C +330 COOL 35 0.222 90.6 12.0% 30.6%vs RHP 397 19.3% 8.3% 19.5% 32

2 George Springer 48 D +400 · 88 0.169 88.6 9.1% 25.0%vs RHP 393 12.1% 25.0% 16.4% 41

3 Brandon Valenzuela 46 D — HOT 101 0.165 88.2 9.4% 22.2%vs RHP 394 10.5% 16.7% 19.7% 11

4 Daulton Varsho 38 D +500 WARM 166 0.136 86.2 8.3% 10.5%vs RHP 386 6.4% 0.0% 8.2% 39

5 Ernie Clement 33 D +950 COOL 194 0.128 85.1 5.0% 6.8%vs RHP 375 7.8% 0.0% 6.7% 47

6 Andres Gimenez 32 D +750 WARM 195 0.122 85.9 6.3% 10.4%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 26

7 Nathan Lukes 30 D +850 COOL 204 0.109 86.4 3.2% 12.5%vs RHP 378 5.9% 0.0% 8.2% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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