TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ SEA

T-Mobile Park is live · 1.12×

MIN @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 10:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 7 mph cross 78°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-2 ↑

7:10p

-3 ↑

8:10p

-5 ↑

9:10p

-3 ↑

10:10p

+0 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 11:10p window peaks +0

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 24 · vs Matthews ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 21 · vs Miller → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Zebby Matthews RHP · MIN

leak 83

1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.94 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +330 C+ ●●●●○

2 Cal Raleigh +290 C ●●○○○

3 Randy Arozarena +425 C ●●○○○

FADE Bryce Miller RHP · SEA

leak 47

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens +390 C+ ●●●○○

2 Trevor Larnach +525 D ●●○○○

3 Brooks Lee +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: 14.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Dominic Canzone ✶ COOL vs Matthews Edge +330 0.268 · 92.3 · 12.9% 16.7% 31.9% F B O C+ 67

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Miller Edge +390 0.244 · 92.6 · 9.2% 16.7% 25.6% F B O C+ 60

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Matthews Edge +290 0.142 · 88.4 · 11.5% 16.7% 14.7% F B O C 52

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Matthews +425 0.167 · 91.0 · 9.5% 15.4% 14.7% F B O C 52

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Matthews +390 0.166 · 90.0 · 10.0% 16.7% 13.0% F B O C 53

· SEA Luke Raley vs Matthews Edge +370 0.215 · 90.8 · 13.3% 0.0% 20.3% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· SEA Cole Young vs Matthews Edge +500 0.143 · 88.7 · 7.7% 15.4% 9.6% F B O D 46

· MIN Trevor Larnach COOL vs Miller Edge +525 0.159 · 87.2 · 7.2% 14.3% 9.4% F B O D 42

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Miller Edge +575 0.173 · 87.6 · 5.1% 8.3% 11.0% F B O D 42

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Matthews Edge +625 0.160 · 86.1 · 7.5% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 45

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Miller +400 0.170 · 89.5 · 9.0% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 46

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Miller Edge +425 0.165 · 89.9 · 8.2% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 43

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Matthews Edge — 0.133 · — · 8.5% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 40

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Matthews Edge +500 0.098 · 87.6 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 38

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Miller Edge — 0.118 · 89.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 35

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Miller +850 0.083 · 84.8 · 4.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 29

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Miller — 0.080 · 87.2 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.9% ← leak OFF 23.3% BRK 21.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.3% 11.4% 20.3% 12.1% C+ 60 +390

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

104

Royce Lewis R

14.0% 8.7% 8.9% 11.9% D 46 +400

129

Josh Bell S Edge

9.9% 6.1% 13.8% 9.9% D 43 +425

135

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.2% 1.3% 0.0% 3.8% D 42 +575

136

Trevor Larnach L Edge

8.3% 3.0% 8.3% 7.5% D 42 +525

182

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 6.5% 12.5% 6.8% D 35 —

209

Luke Keaschall R

3.6% 0.0% 2.4% 2.8% D 29 +850

210

Austin Martin R

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.9% usage) carries Miller's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 33.8% OFF 12.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Dominic Canzone L Edge

17.5% 16.2% 8.6% 14.8% C+ 67 +330

Luke Raley L Edge

18.8% 12.8% 10.0% 15.9% C 58 +370

Julio Rodríguez R

9.2% 8.6% 8.3% 8.9% C 53 +390

Randy Arozarena R

8.8% 8.3% 6.2% 8.2% C 52 +425

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.4% 14.0% 12.8% 11.8% C 52 +290

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

108

Cole Young L Edge

4.4% 9.7% 2.1% 5.2% D 46 +500

114

Colt Emerson L Edge

4.9% 5.6% 4.8% 5.1% D 45 +625

148

J.P. Crawford L Edge

5.2% 7.1% 11.5% 6.4% D 40 —

161

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.2% 7.9% 1.9% 4.6% D 38 +500

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries Matthews's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Canzone Rodríguez Arozarena Raleigh

Legend

attack side — vs Matthews fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 7 mph cross 78°F retractable

-2

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

7:10p

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

75°F

8:10p

-5

↑

6 mph · in

72°F

9:10p

-3

↑

5 mph · in

69°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · cross

66°F

11:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 78°F, wind 7 mph NNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryce Miller · RHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 60 C+ +390 · 29 0.244 92.6 9.2% 19.4%vs RHP 390 18.5% 16.7% 25.6% 37

2 Royce Lewis 46 D +400 COOL 104 0.170 89.5 9.0% 17.0%vs RHP 396 15.2% 0.0% 12.1% 34

3 Josh Bell 43 D +425 COOL 129 0.165 89.9 8.2% 19.6%vs RHP 404 9.6% 0.0% 10.6% 32

4 Brooks Lee 42 D +575 COOL 135 0.173 87.6 5.1% 19.1%vs RHP 370 14.1% 8.3% 11.0% 37

5 Trevor Larnach 42 D +525 COOL 136 0.159 87.2 7.2% 13.5%vs RHP 400 8.2% 14.3% 9.4% 23

6 Victor Caratini 35 D — COOL 182 0.118 89.8 6.8% 16.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 27

7 Luke Keaschall 29 D +850 WARM 209 0.083 84.8 4.4% 7.1%vs RHP 370 4.3% 0.0% 8.0% 29

8 Austin Martin 29 D — COOL 210 0.080 87.2 3.7% 4.0%vs RHP 392 1.7% 0.0% 7.6% 17

vs Zebby Matthews · RHP 1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.94 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 67 C+ +330 COOL 10 0.268 92.3 12.9% 28.8%vs RHP 403 17.6% 16.7% 31.9% 34

2 Luke Raley 58 C +370 WARM 32 0.215 90.8 13.3% 31.9%vs RHP 385 12.5% 0.0% 20.3% 17

3 Julio Rodríguez 53 C +390 · 56 0.166 90.0 10.0% 16.7%vs RHP 409 16.2% 16.7% 13.0% 41

4 Randy Arozarena 52 C +425 · 60 0.167 91.0 9.5% 26.1%vs RHP 394 12.2% 15.4% 14.7% 40

5 Cal Raleigh 52 C +290 WARM 61 0.142 88.4 11.5% 13.1%vs RHP 393 12.9% 16.7% 14.7% 25

6 Cole Young 46 D +500 · 108 0.143 88.7 7.7% 16.9%vs RHP 388 11.4% 15.4% 9.6% 47

7 Colt Emerson 45 D +625 COOL 114 0.160 86.1 7.5% 29.4%vs RHP 369 9.5% 0.0% 12.4% 31

8 J.P. Crawford 40 D — COOL 148 0.133 — 8.5% 25.0%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 19

9 Josh Naylor 38 D +500 COOL 161 0.098 87.6 7.2% 12.3%vs RHP 390 6.7% 0.0% 8.3% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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