TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.37×

MIL @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 9 mph out 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

6:38p

+9 ↑

7:38p

+7 ↑

8:38p

+7 ↑

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+6 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at +10

Best of game Joey Ortiz conv 17 · vs Johnson ⟷ Jo Adell conv 22 · vs Drohan → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 93

2.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.43 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joey Ortiz — D ●●●○○

2 Brice Turang +475 C ●●○○○

3 Christian Yelich +500 D ●●○○○

FADE Shane Drohan LHP · MIL

leak 61

0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.60 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jo Adell +400 D ●●●○○

2 Vaughn Grissom +625 D ●●○○○

3 Jorge Soler +350 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Johnson Edge +475 0.189 · 90.6 · 8.1% 9.1% 14.7% F B O C 51

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Johnson Edge +320 0.224 · 92.8 · 10.4% 0.0% 18.6% F B O C 58

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Drohan Edge +330 0.215 · 90.2 · 11.9% 0.0% 13.9% F B O C 51

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Johnson Edge +425 0.167 · 92.5 · 10.5% 0.0% 12.8% F B O C 50

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Johnson +370 0.187 · 91.8 · 10.1% 0.0% 12.6% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· LAA Jo Adell vs Drohan Edge +400 0.159 · 89.7 · 8.3% 25.0% 19.6% F B O D 45

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Johnson — 0.120 · 88.1 · 5.7% 20.0% 14.0% F B O D 41

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Drohan Edge +625 0.152 · 89.0 · 7.6% 16.7% 7.8% F B O D 40

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Johnson Edge +500 0.149 · 89.0 · 8.6% 10.0% 10.0% F B O D 46

· LAA Jorge Soler vs Drohan Edge +350 0.171 · 88.7 · 9.4% 9.1% 10.9% F B O D 44

· LAA Zach Neto vs Drohan Edge +370 0.201 · 89.3 · 10.1% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 48

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Johnson +475 0.122 · 89.7 · 7.7% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 42

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Drohan Edge — 0.131 · 87.3 · 7.7% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 36

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Johnson Edge +850 0.093 · 86.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 36

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Drohan — 0.148 · 89.0 · 8.8% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 39

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Drohan +850 0.112 · 87.4 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.5% ← leak OFF 25.9% BRK 16.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.3% 13.3% 11.9% 13.5% C 58 +320

Jackson Chourio R

12.1% 3.4% 14.9% 11.8% C 52 +370

Brice Turang L Edge

9.9% 1.9% 9.5% 8.3% C 51 +475

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

15.9% 8.0% 12.1% 13.8% C 50 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

107

Christian Yelich L Edge

7.3% 13.0% 11.8% 9.1% D 46 +500

137

William Contreras R

7.9% 0.0% 8.2% 7.3% D 42 +475

143

Joey Ortiz R

3.3% 0.0% 6.3% 4.1% D 41 —

181

David Hamilton L Edge

3.5% 0.0% 5.7% 3.6% D 36 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.5% usage) carries Johnson's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.1% ← leak BRK 34.1% OFF 4.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Mike Trout R Edge

16.5% 27.0% 12.5% 17.8% C 51 +330

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R Edge

15.2% 8.6% 11.1% 12.7% D 48 +370

110

Jo Adell R Edge

8.1% 8.8% 7.9% 8.3% D 45 +400

122

Jorge Soler R Edge

13.7% 10.0% 0.0% 11.1% D 44 +350

154

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

9.0% 7.4% 0.0% 7.1% D 40 +625

159

Josh Lowe L

13.7% 2.8% 7.4% 9.6% D 39 —

178

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.5% 7.4% 12.0% 7.5% D 36 —

207

Nolan Schanuel L

3.1% 2.8% 0.0% 2.5% D 30 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.1% usage) carries Drohan's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Ortiz Adell

Legend

attack side — vs Johnson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jo Adell +400 · 45

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 9 mph out 88°F open

+10

↑

9 mph · out

87°F

6:38p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

84°F

7:38p

↑

7 mph · out

82°F

8:38p

↑

7 mph · out

80°F

9:38p

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6 mph · out

78°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.37× 88°F, wind 9 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 2.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.43 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 58 C +320 WARM 33 0.224 92.8 10.4% 34.6%vs RHP 401 19.0% 0.0% 18.6% 23

2 Jackson Chourio 52 C +370 COOL 62 0.187 91.8 10.1% 17.2%vs RHP 402 14.7% 0.0% 12.6% 38

3 Brice Turang 51 C +475 COOL 66 0.189 90.6 8.1% 27.3%vs RHP 408 11.5% 9.1% 14.7% 32

4 Garrett Mitchell 50 C +425 COOL 74 0.167 92.5 10.5% 25.8%vs RHP 415 8.1% 0.0% 12.8% 27

5 Christian Yelich 46 D +500 WARM 107 0.149 89.0 8.6% 15.2%vs RHP 404 7.1% 10.0% 10.0% 32

6 William Contreras 42 D +475 COOL 137 0.122 89.7 7.7% 17.7%vs RHP 419 9.3% 0.0% 8.9% 33

7 Joey Ortiz 41 D — WARM 143 0.120 88.1 5.7% 12.5%vs RHP 395 5.7% 20.0% 14.0% 21

8 David Hamilton 36 D +850 COOL 181 0.093 86.9 5.4% 6.8%vs RHP 383 4.2% 0.0% 7.8% 9

vs Shane Drohan · LHP 0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.60 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 51 C +330 COOL 67 0.215 90.2 11.9% 22.2%vs LHP 409 16.1% 0.0% 13.9% 30

2 Zach Neto 48 D +370 · 92 0.201 89.3 10.1% 18.5%vs LHP 402 16.7% 0.0% 12.4% 31

3 Jo Adell 45 D +400 WARM 110 0.159 89.7 8.3% 34.5%vs LHP 410 12.7% 25.0% 19.6% 28

4 Jorge Soler 44 D +350 WARM 122 0.171 88.7 9.4% 15.8%vs LHP 400 13.1% 9.1% 10.9% 19

5 Vaughn Grissom 40 D +625 COOL 154 0.152 89.0 7.6% 0.0%vs LHP 390 11.6% 16.7% 7.8% 36

6 Josh Lowe 39 D — COOL 159 0.148 89.0 8.8% 13.1% 396 10.4% 0.0% 6.5% 12

7 Oswald Peraza 36 D — COOL 178 0.131 87.3 7.7% 26.3%vs LHP 386 6.4% 0.0% 8.9% 9

8 Nolan Schanuel 30 D +850 · 207 0.112 87.4 4.5% 16.7%vs LHP 372 6.7% 0.0% 6.1% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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