TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.69×

TEX @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 15 mph out 94°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+19 ↑

7:15p

+17 ↑

8:15p

+15 ↑

9:15p

+13 ↑

10:15p

+13 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +19

Best of game Jeremy Peña conv 38 · vs Eovaldi ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 35 · vs Brown → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Nathan Eovaldi RHP · TEX

leak 89

1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jeremy Peña +575 C ●●●●●

2 Christian Walker +400 C ●●●○○

3 Yordan Alvarez +225 C+ ●●●○○

FADE Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 74

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Jake Burger +475 C ●●●●○

3 Wyatt Langford +425 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 37.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Jeremy Peña HOT vs Eovaldi +575 0.190 · 88.3 · 6.9% 45.5% 29.7% F B O C 54

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Brown Edge +390 0.251 · 91.9 · 8.5% 37.5% 32.5% F B O C+ 63

· TEX Jake Burger vs Brown +475 0.191 · 90.0 · 8.5% 25.0% 25.1% F B O C 55

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Brown +425 0.229 · 89.5 · 7.4% 23.1% 26.6% F B O C 56

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Eovaldi +400 0.218 · 89.3 · 9.1% 11.1% 24.8% F B O C 57

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Eovaldi Edge +225 0.320 · 94.6 · 12.5% 0.0% 33.9% F B O C+ 66

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Brown +625 0.179 · 88.6 · 6.5% 15.4% 15.7% F B O D 48

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Eovaldi +425 0.164 · 86.5 · 7.1% 16.7% 13.3% F B O D 46

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Eovaldi +700 0.155 · 87.9 · 6.8% 11.1% 13.6% F B O D 45

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Eovaldi +525 0.156 · 89.4 · 9.8% 11.1% 12.9% F B O D 49

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Brown Edge +750 0.148 · 88.0 · 6.2% 12.5% 9.7% F B O D 43

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Brown Edge +500 0.163 · 92.4 · 8.6% 7.7% 10.3% F B O D 48

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Eovaldi +700 0.155 · 85.7 · 6.7% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 40

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Eovaldi — 0.114 · 86.0 · 3.3% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 33

· TEX Alejandro Osuna COOL vs Brown Edge — 0.043 · 86.6 · 2.0% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.4% ← leak BRK 28.9% OFF 9.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.2% 11.9% 4.2% 11.3% C+ 63 +390

Wyatt Langford R

5.7% 12.2% 16.7% 8.7% C 56 +425

Jake Burger R

10.1% 12.8% 10.0% 11.0% C 55 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Duran R

8.0% 6.8% 0.0% 6.5% D 48 +625

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

9.7% 17.5% 9.3% 11.7% D 48 +500

130

Evan Carter L Edge

7.9% 5.1% 0.0% 5.9% D 43 +750

211

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.6% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.4% usage) carries Brown's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 40.1% ← leak OFF 37.1% BRK 22.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

19.3% 9.4% 24.1% 18.5% C+ 66 +225

Christian Walker R

8.6% 13.3% 10.8% 9.8% C 57 +400

Jeremy Peña R

4.2% 13.3% 6.6% 5.6% C 54 +575

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Cam Smith R

9.0% 19.2% 15.8% 11.5% D 49 +525

103

Isaac Paredes R

7.8% 2.3% 3.8% 6.0% D 46 +425

112

Yainer Diaz R

7.1% 7.4% 1.9% 5.5% D 45 +700

150

Jose Altuve R

6.0% 0.0% 5.8% 5.4% D 40 +700

191

Christian Vazquez R

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (40.1% usage) carries Eovaldi's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Langford Burger Duran Alvarez Walker Peña Paredes

Legend

attack side — vs Eovaldi fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Jeremy Peña +575 · 54

Joc Pederson +390 · 63

Jake Burger +475 · 55

Wyatt Langford +425 · 56

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof retractable

Park 1.05× Wind 15 mph out 94°F retractable

+19

↑

15 mph · out

94°F

7:15p · peak

+17

↑

14 mph · out

91°F

8:15p

+15

↑

13 mph · out

87°F

9:15p

+13

↑

12 mph · out

85°F

10:15p

+13

↑

12 mph · out

83°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.69× 94°F, wind 15 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 63 C+ +390 · 16 0.251 91.9 8.5% 31.1%vs RHP 394 21.6% 37.5% 32.5% 26

2 Wyatt Langford 56 C +425 · 37 0.229 89.5 7.4% 21.1%vs RHP 401 17.4% 23.1% 26.6% 39

3 Jake Burger 55 C +475 WARM 40 0.191 90.0 8.5% 25.0%vs RHP 398 16.3% 25.0% 25.1% 32

4 Ezequiel Duran 48 D +625 WARM 89 0.179 88.6 6.5% 22.7%vs RHP 392 13.6% 15.4% 15.7% 35

5 Brandon Nimmo 48 D +500 COOL 95 0.163 92.4 8.6% 12.7%vs RHP 404 9.2% 7.7% 10.3% 34

6 Evan Carter 43 D +750 COOL 130 0.148 88.0 6.2% 15.1%vs RHP 374 9.5% 12.5% 9.7% 23

7 Alejandro Osuna 29 D — COOL 211 0.043 86.6 2.0% 5.3%vs RHP 364 2.5% 0.0% 7.4% 17

vs Nathan Eovaldi · RHP 1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 66 C+ +225 · 11 0.320 94.6 12.5% 28.0%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 33.9% 33

2 Christian Walker 57 C +400 COOL 34 0.218 89.3 9.1% 27.0%vs RHP 389 18.6% 11.1% 24.8% 16

3 Jeremy Peña 54 C +575 HOT 45 0.190 88.3 6.9% 29.7%vs RHP 387 15.7% 45.5% 29.7% 33

4 Cam Smith 49 D +525 COOL 83 0.156 89.4 9.8% 18.4%vs RHP 411 12.4% 11.1% 12.9% 20

5 Isaac Paredes 46 D +425 · 103 0.164 86.5 7.1% 17.7%vs RHP 376 11.5% 16.7% 13.3% 44

6 Yainer Diaz 45 D +700 · 112 0.155 87.9 6.8% 24.1%vs RHP 396 10.1% 11.1% 13.6% 24

7 Jose Altuve 40 D +700 COOL 150 0.155 85.7 6.7% 22.2%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 40

8 Christian Vazquez 33 D — COOL 191 0.114 86.0 3.3% 13.3%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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