TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.53×

WSH @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.18× Wind 7 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+14 ↑

7:15p

+13 ↑

8:15p

+11 ↑

9:15p

+9 ↑

10:15p

+7 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +14

Best of game Cj Abrams conv 43 · vs Elder ⟷ Matt Olson conv 30 · vs Griffin → edge: Cj Abrams

ATTACK Bryce Elder RHP · ATL

leak 75

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cj Abrams +370 C+ ●●●●●

2 Dylan Crews +500 C ●●●●●

3 Daylen Lile +475 C ●●●○○

FADE Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 75

1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +350 B ●●●●●

2 Drake Baldwin +400 C+ ●●●●●

3 Ozzie Albies +525 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cj Abrams: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Cj Abrams ✶ vs Elder Edge +370 0.268 · 89.7 · 8.4% 50.0% 36.3% F B O C+ 69

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Elder +500 0.166 · 90.7 · 8.0% 37.5% 24.2% F B O C 58

· ATL Matt Olson vs Griffin +350 0.261 · 92.7 · 11.3% 26.7% 32.8% F B O B 71

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Griffin +400 0.203 · 91.5 · 11.6% 26.7% 32.3% F B O C+ 65

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Griffin Edge +525 0.177 · 86.9 · 6.2% 26.7% 23.3% F B O C 53

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Elder Edge +475 0.157 · 88.1 · 7.3% 18.2% 18.3% F B O C 51

· WSH James Wood COOL vs Elder Edge +265 0.280 · 95.2 · 11.7% 7.7% 26.2% F B O B 72

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Griffin Edge +500 0.132 · 90.7 · 9.8% 14.3% 16.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Griffin — 0.126 · 90.3 · 7.7% 12.5% 12.5% F B O D 47

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Elder +850 0.153 · 88.6 · 6.5% 10.0% 13.3% F B O D 48

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Griffin — 0.127 · 87.8 · 7.0% 14.3% 7.5% F B O D 45

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Elder Edge +575 0.182 · 88.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 48

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Griffin Edge +700 0.139 · 86.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 41

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Elder Edge — 0.043 · 84.5 · 1.6% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.4% ← leak BRK 25.7% OFF 8.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

James Wood L Edge

20.9% 26.9% 11.8% 21.5% B 72 +265

Neutral · 3

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.7% 9.6% 13.6% 11.3% C+ 69 +370

Dylan Crews R

7.3% 23.3% 5.9% 10.2% C 58 +500

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.3% 10.2% 3.9% 7.8% C 51 +475

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Jacob Young R

8.5% 4.2% 3.3% 6.6% D 48 +850

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.7% 3.5% 2.6% 5.0% D 48 +575

212

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.4% usage) carries Elder's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.4% ← leak BRK 25.0% OFF 16.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L

16.3% 11.0% 11.1% 14.1% B 71 +350

Neutral · 3

Drake Baldwin L

15.3% 19.7% 5.1% 14.8% C+ 65 +400

Ozzie Albies S Edge

7.1% 1.0% 3.1% 4.4% C 53 +525

Austin Riley R Edge

12.7% 10.8% 2.9% 10.8% C 51 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Mike Yastrzemski L

6.9% 4.4% 6.9% 6.2% D 47 —

117

Dominic Smith L

6.1% 6.2% 2.6% 5.5% D 45 —

141

Mauricio Dubon R Edge

3.2% 6.3% 5.3% 4.5% D 41 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.4% usage) carries Griffin's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Abrams Crews Lile Olson Baldwin Albies Riley

Legend

attack side — vs Elder fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Cj Abrams +370 · 69

Dylan Crews +500 · 58

Matt Olson +350 · 71

Drake Baldwin +400 · 65

Ozzie Albies +525 · 53

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.18× Wind 7 mph out 84°F open

+14

↑

7 mph · out

86°F

7:15p · peak

+13

↑

6 mph · out

84°F

8:15p

+11

↑

5 mph · out

81°F

9:15p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

78°F

10:15p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

75°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.53× 84°F, wind 7 mph NW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryce Elder · RHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 72 B +265 COOL 2 0.280 95.2 11.7% 36.8%vs RHP 413 27.5% 7.7% 26.2% 35

2 Cj Abrams ✶ 69 C+ +370 WARM 6 0.268 89.7 8.4% 31.0%vs RHP 396 42.9% 50.0% 36.3% 40

3 Dylan Crews 58 C +500 WARM 31 0.166 90.7 8.0% 16.1%vs RHP 406 20.0% 37.5% 24.2% 25

4 Daylen Lile 51 C +475 WARM 63 0.157 88.1 7.3% 11.0%vs RHP 402 9.4% 18.2% 18.3% 34

5 Jacob Young 48 D +850 COOL 90 0.153 88.6 6.5% 16.7%vs RHP 396 8.2% 10.0% 13.3% 27

6 Keibert Ruiz 48 D +575 COOL 93 0.182 88.3 5.7% 8.2%vs RHP 377 10.6% 0.0% 12.0% 26

7 Nasim Nunez 28 D — COOL 212 0.043 84.5 1.6% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 44

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 71 B +350 · 3 0.261 92.7 11.3% 21.3%vs LHP 408 21.8% 26.7% 32.8% 34

2 Drake Baldwin 65 C+ +400 · 12 0.203 91.5 11.6% 38.9%vs LHP 403 19.1% 26.7% 32.3% 45

3 Ozzie Albies 53 C +525 COOL 49 0.177 86.9 6.2% 15.7%vs LHP 386 14.5% 26.7% 23.3% 46

4 Austin Riley 51 C +500 HOT 64 0.132 90.7 9.8% 12.5%vs LHP 405 8.3% 14.3% 16.6% 27

5 Mike Yastrzemski 47 D — COOL 98 0.126 90.3 7.7% 0.0%vs LHP 390 8.7% 12.5% 12.5% 10

6 Dominic Smith 45 D — COOL 117 0.127 87.8 7.0% 0.0%vs LHP 390 7.5% 14.3% 7.5% 20

7 Mauricio Dubon 41 D +700 COOL 141 0.139 86.6 6.3% 11.8%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 49

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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