TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.91×

SF @ SD

Petco Park · 9:45p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 6 mph cross 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:45p

-6 ↑

7:45p

-6 ↑

8:45p

-6 ↑

9:45p

-6 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at -5

Best of game Ty France conv 28 · vs Whisenhunt ⟷ Willy Adames conv 21 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Ty France

ATTACK Carson Whisenhunt LHP · SF

leak 84

1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ty France +425 C ●●●●○

2 Jackson Merrill +475 D ●●●●○

3 Manny Machado +305 C ●●●○○

FADE Bradgley Rodriguez RHP · SD

leak 3

0.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.77 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willy Adames +400 D ●●●○○

2 Rafael Devers +350 D ●●●○○

3 Bryce Eldridge +400 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ty France: 11.3% barrels overall vs the OFF leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Ty France ✶ vs Whisenhunt Edge +425 0.252 · 92.4 · 9.7% 30.8% 24.8% F B O C 55

· SD Manny Machado vs Whisenhunt Edge +305 0.223 · 90.5 · 9.5% 23.1% 20.9% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill HOT vs Whisenhunt +475 0.156 · 89.9 · 9.4% 33.3% 13.2% F B O D 45

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Rodriguez +400 0.200 · 87.8 · 5.8% 23.1% 19.6% F B O D 40

· SF Rafael Devers vs Rodriguez Edge +350 0.231 · 92.3 · 6.5% 23.1% 17.0% F B O D 44

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Rodriguez Edge +400 0.203 · 92.5 · 6.9% 23.1% 14.7% F B O D 42

· SF Heliot Ramos COOL vs Rodriguez +425 0.169 · 92.1 · 7.2% 7.7% 9.6% F B O D 35

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Rodriguez Edge +950 0.132 · 87.0 · 3.0% 8.3% 4.7% F B O D 24

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Whisenhunt — 0.182 · 87.8 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 39

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Whisenhunt +750 0.076 · 87.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 28

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Whisenhunt Edge +625 0.101 · 88.1 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 31

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Rodriguez Edge +950 0.119 · 86.0 · 3.2% 0.0% 4.9% F B O D 23

· SF Luis Arraez COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.120 · 86.9 · 1.4% 0.0% 4.1% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.0% ← leak OFF 43.8% BRK 8.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

120

Rafael Devers L Edge

13.2% 8.9% 8.2% 11.1% D 44 +350

132

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

13.7% 18.5% 6.2% 13.0% D 42 +400

151

Willy Adames R

8.3% 12.0% 9.7% 9.0% D 40 +400

183

Heliot Ramos R

11.8% 16.0% 17.7% 14.2% D 35 +425

218

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.6% 0.0% 2.8% 2.4% D 24 +950

219

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.8% 0.0% 4.9% 2.8% D 23 +950

221

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 18 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.0% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

OFF 38.4% ← leak FB 36.0% BRK 23.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ty France R Edge

7.4% 11.8% 12.3% 11.3% C 55 +425

Manny Machado R Edge

7.9% 13.6% 7.0% 11.0% C 53 +305

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

113

Jackson Merrill L

6.2% 12.7% 10.1% 10.5% D 45 +475

158

Gavin Sheets L

1.9% 9.2% 4.3% 6.7% D 39 —

202

Xander Bogaerts R Edge

4.0% 7.7% 2.6% 6.0% D 31 +625

213

Jake Cronenworth L

4.3% 5.3% 4.5% 5.0% D 28 +750

Read the columns: the offspeed family (38.4% usage) carries Whisenhunt's damage — OFF is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Adames France Machado Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Whisenhunt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Ty France +425 · 55

Manny Machado +305 · 53

Willy Adames +400 · 40

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 6 mph cross 80°F open

-5

↑

6 mph · cross

79°F

6:45p · peak

-6

↑

5 mph · cross

77°F

7:45p

-6

↑

5 mph · cross

76°F

8:45p

-6

↑

4 mph · cross

75°F

9:45p

-6

↑

4 mph · cross

74°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 80°F, wind 6 mph W (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bradgley Rodriguez · RHP 0.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.77 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 44 D +350 · 120 0.231 92.3 6.5% 26.1%vs RHP 399 17.9% 23.1% 17.0% 36

2 Bryce Eldridge 42 D +400 · 132 0.203 92.5 6.9% 24.3%vs RHP 396 20.9% 23.1% 14.7% 29

3 Willy Adames 40 D +400 COOL 151 0.200 87.8 5.8% 20.5%vs RHP 388 15.2% 23.1% 19.6% 32

4 Heliot Ramos 35 D +425 COOL 183 0.169 92.1 7.2% 18.9%vs RHP 407 11.1% 7.7% 9.6% 39

5 Jung Hoo Lee 24 D +950 · 218 0.132 87.0 3.0% 9.4%vs RHP 375 5.1% 8.3% 4.7% 37

6 Drew Gilbert 23 D +950 HOT 219 0.119 86.0 3.2% 12.9%vs RHP 398 3.3% 0.0% 4.9% 25

7 Luis Arraez 18 D — COOL 221 0.120 86.9 1.4% 3.2%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 48

vs Carson Whisenhunt · LHP 1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France ✶ 55 C +425 WARM 41 0.252 92.4 9.7% 25.0%vs LHP 394 18.9% 30.8% 24.8% 40

2 Manny Machado 53 C +305 WARM 51 0.223 90.5 9.5% 18.2%vs LHP 397 20.4% 23.1% 20.9% 42

3 Jackson Merrill 45 D +475 HOT 113 0.156 89.9 9.4% 14.3%vs LHP 409 13.9% 33.3% 13.2% 42

4 Gavin Sheets 39 D — COOL 158 0.182 87.8 7.4% 0.0%vs LHP 397 10.6% 0.0% 7.1% 29

5 Xander Bogaerts 31 D +625 COOL 202 0.101 88.1 7.0% 5.9%vs LHP 396 8.0% 0.0% 6.0% 37

6 Jake Cronenworth 28 D +750 COOL 213 0.076 87.9 6.4% 9.7% 389 1.7% 0.0% 6.1% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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