TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.49×

KC @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.24× Wind 11 mph slight_out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+15 ↑

6:40p

+15 ↑

7:40p

+12 ↑

8:40p

+11 ↑

9:40p

+11 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +15

Best of game Lane Thomas conv 24 · vs Sugano ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 32 · vs Wacha → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · COL

leak 93

1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lane Thomas +350 C+ ●●●●○

2 Jac Caglianone +280 C+ ●●●○○

3 Carter Jensen +290 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 84

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman +225 B ●●●●●

2 Willi Castro +475 C ●●●●○

3 Jake Mccarthy +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Wacha +225 0.291 · 90.7 · 10.7% 20.0% 43.3% F B O B 72

· COL Willi Castro vs Wacha Edge +475 0.144 · 88.0 · 7.3% 30.0% 17.8% F B O C 50

· KC Lane Thomas vs Sugano +350 0.165 · 89.5 · 9.2% 25.0% 22.6% F B O C+ 60

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Sugano Edge +280 0.195 · 92.9 · 14.1% 20.0% 24.3% F B O C+ 68

· KC Carter Jensen vs Sugano Edge +290 0.185 · 90.8 · 11.2% 8.3% 16.3% F B O C+ 61

· KC Salvador Perez vs Sugano +305 0.157 · 89.1 · 11.7% 0.0% 21.1% F B O C 55

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Sugano Edge +500 0.123 · 88.2 · 8.6% 8.3% 10.3% F B O C 50

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Sugano Edge +400 0.161 · 90.1 · 9.1% 0.0% 12.6% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Wacha Edge +575 0.198 · 84.9 · 5.9% 0.0% 14.6% F B O D 49

· COL Kyle Karros COOL vs Wacha +475 0.162 · 89.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 49

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Wacha Edge +500 0.172 · 83.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 45

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Wacha +525 0.124 · 87.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 43

· COL Edouard Julien COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.087 · 90.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 41

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Wacha — 0.071 · 87.5 · 3.1% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 34

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Wacha Edge +700 0.109 · 89.7 · 3.7% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.9% ← leak BRK 27.2% OFF 20.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Jac Caglianone L Edge

15.0% 16.3% 11.5% 14.7% C+ 68 +280

Carter Jensen L Edge

11.2% 8.9% 6.8% 9.5% C+ 61 +290

Lane Thomas R

7.5% 2.6% 5.3% 6.4% C+ 60 +350

Salvador Perez R

14.2% 6.5% 9.1% 10.4% C 55 +305

Michael Massey L Edge

7.6% 6.0% 2.4% 6.3% C 53 +400

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.0% 11.1% 0.0% 5.7% C 50 +500

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.9% usage) carries Sugano's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.8% ← leak OFF 23.4% BRK 18.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

20.0% 7.1% 15.7% 16.9% B 72 +225

Neutral · 1

Willi Castro S Edge

9.4% 6.4% 6.5% 8.0% C 50 +475

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.0% 8.3% 1.6% 5.2% D 49 +575

Kyle Karros R

8.0% 14.3% 5.0% 7.8% D 49 +475

109

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.1% 5.9% 2.1% 4.8% D 45 +500

128

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.1% 4.3% 7.4% 6.4% D 43 +525

146

Edouard Julien L Edge

5.4% 5.9% 11.8% 6.9% D 41 —

173

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.6% 0.0% 2.5% 2.0% D 37 +700

188

Tyler Freeman R

2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.8% usage) carries Wacha's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Thomas Goodman Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Sugano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Hunter Goodman +225 · 72

Lane Thomas +350 · 60

Jac Caglianone +280 · 68

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.24× Wind 11 mph slight_out 81°F open

+15

↑

11 mph · slight_out

81°F

6:40p · peak

+15

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

7:40p

+12

↑

5 mph · out

72°F

8:40p

+11

↑

4 mph · out

70°F

9:40p

+11

↑

4 mph · out

70°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.49× 81°F, wind 11 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP 1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 68 C+ +280 · 9 0.195 92.9 14.1% 26.8%vs RHP 417 13.7% 20.0% 24.3% 32

2 Carter Jensen 61 C+ +290 · 24 0.185 90.8 11.2% 16.9%vs RHP 394 14.3% 8.3% 16.3% 31

3 Lane Thomas 60 C+ +350 · 28 0.165 89.5 9.2% 20.7%vs RHP 409 15.7% 25.0% 22.6% 31

4 Salvador Perez 55 C +305 WARM 43 0.157 89.1 11.7% 19.1%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 33

5 Michael Massey 53 C +400 COOL 57 0.161 90.1 9.1% 8.8%vs RHP 398 5.6% 0.0% 12.6% 36

6 Isaac Collins 50 C +500 COOL 75 0.123 88.2 8.6% 8.9%vs RHP 394 6.5% 8.3% 10.3% 32

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 72 B +225 COOL 1 0.291 90.7 10.7% 40.7%vs RHP 411 24.2% 20.0% 43.3% 18

2 Willi Castro 50 C +475 WARM 72 0.144 88.0 7.3% 16.1%vs RHP 412 9.9% 30.0% 17.8% 27

3 Jake Mccarthy 49 D +575 COOL 80 0.198 84.9 5.9% 16.7%vs RHP 419 14.3% 0.0% 14.6% 38

4 Kyle Karros 49 D +475 COOL 81 0.162 89.6 7.4% 23.5%vs RHP 417 10.7% 0.0% 14.5% 21

5 Tj Rumfield 45 D +500 · 109 0.172 83.8 5.9% 17.1%vs RHP 410 7.1% 0.0% 12.8% 30

6 Ezequiel Tovar 43 D +525 COOL 128 0.124 87.3 6.6% 16.4%vs RHP 410 7.4% 0.0% 10.8% 16

7 Edouard Julien 41 D — COOL 146 0.087 90.8 6.8% 12.1%vs RHP 400 3.7% 0.0% 9.1% 13

8 Troy Johnston 37 D +700 COOL 173 0.109 89.7 3.7% 7.3%vs RHP 415 1.3% 0.0% 8.4% 25

9 Tyler Freeman 34 D — COOL 188 0.071 87.5 3.1% 3.9%vs RHP 369 2.0% 0.0% 8.8% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.