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Great American Ball Park is live · 1.41×

PIT @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.17× Wind 3 mph slight_out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

6:10p

+7 ↑

7:10p

+6 ↑

8:10p

+6 ↑

9:10p

+5 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at +8

Best of game Sal Stewart conv 31 · vs Skenes ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 20 · vs Greene → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 88

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sal Stewart +370 C+ ●●●●●

2 Jj Bleday +350 C ●●●●○

3 Elly De La Cruz +400 C+ ●●●●○

FADE Hunter Greene RHP · CIN

leak 47

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +290 C+ ●●●○○

2 Nick Gonzales +700 D ●●●○○

3 Ryan O'Hearn +425 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Sal Stewart ✶ vs Skenes +370 0.219 · 90.5 · 9.6% 30.8% 31.5% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Skenes Edge +350 0.239 · 89.0 · 8.5% 25.0% 24.6% F B O C 56

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Skenes Edge +400 0.218 · 94.3 · 9.9% 21.4% 24.2% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe vs Skenes Edge +425 0.215 · 89.2 · 8.3% 18.2% 23.3% F B O C 55

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Greene Edge +290 0.232 · 91.0 · 8.9% 15.4% 25.1% F B O C+ 60

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Greene Edge +425 0.187 · 89.4 · 6.9% 6.7% 14.1% F B O C 50

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Greene Edge +370 0.188 · 90.9 · 8.6% 6.7% 13.7% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Greene +700 0.094 · 86.1 · 4.5% 26.7% 10.7% F B O D 39

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Skenes +390 0.190 · 88.6 · 8.2% 0.0% 28.5% F B O D 48

· CIN Tyler Stephenson HOT vs Skenes +500 0.147 · 91.0 · 8.7% 8.3% 20.1% F B O D 47

· CIN Matt McLain COOL vs Skenes +700 0.138 · 88.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 41

· PIT Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Greene +370 0.121 · 89.2 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 43

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Greene Edge +850 0.069 · 84.9 · 2.9% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 32

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.084 · 87.4 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.4% ← leak BRK 32.9% OFF 8.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.2% 7.6% 9.3% 12.1% C+ 60 +290

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.3% 15.3% 7.8% 11.5% C 53 +370

Ryan O'Hearn L Edge

8.4% 6.8% 3.6% 7.5% C 50 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

127

Marcell Ozuna R

8.1% 10.3% 0.0% 7.9% D 43 +370

156

Nick Gonzales R

2.6% 5.4% 0.0% 3.2% D 39 +700

196

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 32 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.4% usage) carries Greene's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.8% ← leak OFF 25.7% BRK 21.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Sal Stewart R

17.1% 10.3% 9.3% 13.8% C+ 61 +370

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

19.6% 3.8% 11.5% 14.4% C+ 60 +400

Jj Bleday L Edge

12.8% 5.8% 8.7% 10.2% C 56 +350

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

9.3% 11.8% 13.0% 10.4% C 55 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Eugenio Suarez R

12.0% 6.7% 5.7% 10.2% D 48 +390

Tyler Stephenson R

14.0% 6.2% 7.1% 11.3% D 47 +500

140

Matt McLain R

10.2% 0.0% 9.9% 9.1% D 41 +700

189

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.9% 0.0% 4.0% 2.6% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.8% usage) carries Skenes's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Gonzales Stewart Cruz Bleday Lowe Suarez Stephenson

Legend

attack side — vs Skenes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Sal Stewart +370 · 61

Jj Bleday +350 · 56

Elly De La Cruz +400 · 60

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.17× Wind 3 mph slight_out 85°F open

↑

3 mph · slight_out

86°F

6:10p · peak

↑

3 mph · slight_out

85°F

7:10p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

83°F

8:10p

↑

2 mph · cross

80°F

9:10p

↑

2 mph · cross

78°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.41× 85°F, wind 3 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hunter Greene · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 60 C+ +290 · 26 0.232 91.0 8.9% 24.3%vs RHP 393 16.5% 15.4% 25.1% 29

2 Bryan Reynolds 53 C +370 WARM 54 0.188 90.9 8.6% 18.8%vs RHP 409 13.2% 6.7% 13.7% 30

3 Ryan O'Hearn 50 C +425 COOL 73 0.187 89.4 6.9% 22.0%vs RHP 385 13.6% 6.7% 14.1% 38

4 Marcell Ozuna 43 D +370 COOL 127 0.121 89.2 7.1% 13.8%vs RHP 404 8.6% 0.0% 10.9% 20

5 Nick Gonzales 39 D +700 WARM 156 0.094 86.1 4.5% 12.2%vs RHP 397 7.8% 26.7% 10.7% 48

6 Jake Mangum 32 D +850 COOL 196 0.069 84.9 2.9% 9.5%vs RHP 408 3.1% 0.0% 8.4% 39

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 61 C+ +370 · 21 0.219 90.5 9.6% 22.5%vs RHP 393 15.1% 30.8% 31.5% 33

2 Elly De La Cruz 60 C+ +400 · 27 0.218 94.3 9.9% 19.6%vs RHP 398 17.0% 21.4% 24.2% 40

3 Jj Bleday 56 C +350 WARM 36 0.239 89.0 8.5% 23.2%vs RHP 388 20.0% 25.0% 24.6% 30

4 Nathaniel Lowe 55 C +425 · 42 0.215 89.2 8.3% 27.9%vs RHP 395 15.9% 18.2% 23.3% 30

5 Eugenio Suarez 48 D +390 HOT 85 0.190 88.6 8.2% 26.3%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 28.5% 25

6 Tyler Stephenson 47 D +500 HOT 96 0.147 91.0 8.7% 18.2%vs RHP 395 7.1% 8.3% 20.1% 21

7 Matt McLain 41 D +700 COOL 140 0.138 88.6 7.8% 10.2%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 2

8 Tj Friedl 34 D — COOL 189 0.084 87.4 4.2% 7.9%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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