TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ STL

Playable air · 1.08×

CWS @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 3 mph slight_out 92°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:15p

-3 ↑

7:15p

-3 ↑

8:15p

-4 ↑

9:15p

-4 ↑

10:15p

best window is early — 6:15p at -1

Best of game Colson Montgomery conv 23 · vs Leahy ⟷ Jordan Walker conv 10 · vs Newcomb → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 84

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Colson Montgomery +425 C ●●●●○

2 Munetaka Murakami +390 C ●●●○○

3 Miguel Vargas +390 C ●●○○○

FADE Sean Newcomb LHP · CWS

leak 6

0.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.92 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jordan Walker +400 D ●●○○○

2 Alec Burleson +400 D ●○○○○

3 Nolan Gorman +400 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 28.1% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Leahy Edge +425 0.222 · 88.7 · 11.2% 23.1% 23.5% F B O C 53

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ COOL vs Leahy Edge +390 0.267 · 94.0 · 13.6% 16.7% 28.1% F B O C 59

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Leahy +390 0.229 · 90.5 · 11.4% 8.3% 11.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Newcomb Edge +400 0.208 · 92.4 · 8.6% 9.1% 11.4% F B O D 43

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Leahy — 0.274 · 91.5 · 10.5% 0.0% 18.3% F B O D 49

· CWS Andrew Benintendi HOT vs Leahy Edge +850 0.178 · 89.2 · 9.3% 8.3% 9.7% F B O D 40

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Leahy Edge +950 0.134 · 88.7 · 6.4% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 31

· STL Alec Burleson vs Newcomb +400 0.184 · 92.0 · 7.9% 8.3% 6.4% F B O D 39

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Leahy — 0.122 · 87.3 · 6.3% 8.3% 6.1% F B O D 30

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Newcomb +400 0.134 · 89.6 · 7.7% 9.1% 4.9% F B O D 32

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Leahy Edge +950 0.185 · 87.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 37

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Leahy Edge — 0.121 · 87.2 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 30

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Newcomb Edge +575 0.135 · 89.3 · 5.6% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 26

· STL Masyn Winn COOL vs Newcomb Edge +950 0.087 · 88.2 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 22

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Newcomb Edge — 0.110 · 86.0 · 3.6% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 23

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Newcomb +950 0.119 · 85.9 · 5.7% 0.0% 5.0% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Kyle Leahy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Sean Newcomb — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Montgomery

Legend

attack side — vs Leahy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Colson Montgomery +425 · 53

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:15p · roof open

Park 0.83× Wind 3 mph slight_out 92°F open

-1

↑

3 mph · slight_out

92°F

6:15p · peak

-3

↑

3 mph · slight_out

90°F

7:15p

-3

↑

4 mph · slight_out

87°F

8:15p

-4

↑

4 mph · cross

85°F

9:15p

-4

↑

4 mph · cross

82°F

10:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 92°F, wind 3 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 59 C +390 COOL 16 0.267 94.0 13.6% 36.2%vs RHP 401 18.7% 16.7% 28.1% 21

2 Colson Montgomery 53 C +425 COOL 37 0.222 88.7 11.2% 27.6%vs RHP 397 22.0% 23.1% 23.5% 24

3 Miguel Vargas 50 C +390 COOL 54 0.229 90.5 11.4% 16.8%vs RHP 392 19.5% 8.3% 11.2% 33

4 Randal Grichuk 49 D — WARM 56 0.274 91.5 10.5% 21.4%vs RHP 390 13.5% 0.0% 18.3% 14

5 Andrew Benintendi 40 D +850 HOT 126 0.178 89.2 9.3% 15.6%vs RHP 388 12.1% 8.3% 9.7% 27

6 Tristan Peters 37 D +950 · 151 0.185 87.5 7.5% 13.2%vs RHP 377 11.1% 0.0% 9.8% 30

7 Braden Montgomery 31 D +950 · 184 0.134 88.7 6.4% 17.2%vs RHP 395 6.9% 8.3% 7.5% 32

8 Sam Antonacci 30 D — COOL 193 0.121 87.2 7.0% 11.3%vs RHP 390 7.4% 0.0% 6.7% 34

9 Chase Meidroth 30 D — COOL 195 0.122 87.3 6.3% 13.3%vs RHP 379 7.9% 8.3% 6.1% 27

vs Sean Newcomb · LHP 0.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.92 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 43 D +400 COOL 101 0.208 92.4 8.6% 34.6%vs LHP 406 17.2% 9.1% 11.4% 28

2 Alec Burleson 39 D +400 · 137 0.184 92.0 7.9% 8.3%vs LHP 406 14.2% 8.3% 6.4% 32

3 Nolan Gorman 32 D +400 · 182 0.134 89.6 7.7% 11.1%vs LHP 407 9.7% 9.1% 4.9% 24

4 Ivan Herrera 26 D +575 · 210 0.135 89.3 5.6% 17.9%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 40

5 Nathan Church 26 D +950 COOL 212 0.119 85.9 5.7% 14.3%vs LHP 386 7.6% 0.0% 5.0% 36

6 José Fermín 23 D — COOL 214 0.110 86.0 3.6% 12.5%vs LHP 390 5.5% 0.0% 5.6% 28

7 Masyn Winn 22 D +950 COOL 215 0.087 88.2 4.5% 5.0%vs LHP 385 4.1% 0.0% 6.2% 4

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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