TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ MIN

Target Field is live · 1.32×

CLE @ MIN

Target Field · 4:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 12 mph out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

3:10p

+10 ↑

4:10p

+8 ↑

5:10p

+6 ↑

6:10p

+5 ↑

7:10p

best window is early — 3:10p at +10

Best of game Travis Bazzana conv 21 · vs Prielipp ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 29 · vs Espino → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Connor Prielipp LHP · MIN

leak 84

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●○○

2 Brayan Rocchio +800 D ●●●○○

3 Patrick Bailey — D ●●○○○

FADE Daniel Espino RHP

leak 62

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens +600 C ●●●●○

2 Josh Bell — D ●●○○○

3 Brooks Lee +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: Match 24.6% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Kody Clemens ✶ vs Espino Edge +600 0.234 · 92.4 · 9.1% 33.3% 24.6% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Prielipp — 0.142 · 87.8 · 6.0% 30.0% 11.4% F B O D 39

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Prielipp Edge +800 0.129 · 86.9 · 4.8% 25.0% 12.8% F B O D 36

· — Josh Bell vs Espino Edge — 0.168 · 90.0 · 8.2% 16.7% 11.6% F B O D 42

· CLE Patrick Bailey COOL vs Prielipp Edge — 0.122 · 90.4 · 7.0% 14.3% 8.9% F B O D 37

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Prielipp Edge — 0.186 · 87.4 · 7.2% 0.0% 19.9% F B O D 39

· — Brooks Lee vs Espino Edge +750 0.186 · 88.3 · 5.4% 8.3% 11.5% F B O D 40

· — Trevor Larnach vs Espino Edge — 0.158 · 87.8 · 7.0% 10.0% 9.1% F B O D 38

· — Royce Lewis COOL vs Espino +700 0.162 · 89.9 · 8.8% 8.3% 9.3% F B O D 42

· — Luke Keaschall vs Espino +700 0.115 · 85.5 · 4.9% 8.3% 7.0% F B O D 30

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Prielipp — 0.168 · 91.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 38

· — Victor Caratini COOL vs Espino Edge — 0.101 · 89.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 29

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Prielipp Edge +450 0.137 · 88.8 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 32

· — Austin Martin vs Espino — 0.092 · 87.0 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 27

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Prielipp — 0.062 · 83.6 · 1.9% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Connor Prielipp — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Daniel Espino — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bazzana Rocchio Clemens Bell

Legend

attack side — vs Prielipp fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kody Clemens +600 · 55

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 3:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 12 mph out 71°F open

+10

↑

12 mph · out

71°F

3:10p · peak

+10

↑

12 mph · out

71°F

4:10p

↑

10 mph · out

69°F

5:10p

↑

9 mph · out

67°F

6:10p

↑

8 mph · out

65°F

7:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.32× 71°F, wind 12 mph NW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Connor Prielipp · LHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 39 D — · 132 0.186 87.4 7.2% 17.4%vs LHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 19

2 Travis Bazzana 39 D — WARM 135 0.142 87.8 6.0% 4.2%vs LHP 394 11.1% 30.0% 11.4% 22

3 Chase Delauter 38 D — WARM 141 0.168 91.5 6.8% 12.5%vs LHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 26

4 Patrick Bailey 37 D — COOL 152 0.122 90.4 7.0% 10.0%vs LHP 409 7.0% 14.3% 8.9% 17

5 Brayan Rocchio 36 D +800 COOL 161 0.129 86.9 4.8% 10.8%vs LHP 384 8.7% 25.0% 12.8% 34

6 Jose Ramirez 32 D +450 COOL 176 0.137 88.8 5.5% 15.2%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 41

7 Steven Kwan 20 D — COOL 217 0.062 83.6 1.9% 0.0%vs LHP 372 1.5% 0.0% 5.7% 43

vs Daniel Espino · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 55 C +600 WARM 30 0.234 92.4 9.1% 21.6%vs RHP 390 19.0% 33.3% 24.6% 29

2 Josh Bell 42 D — WARM 109 0.168 90.0 8.2% 20.6%vs RHP 409 11.9% 16.7% 11.6% 36

3 Royce Lewis 42 D +700 COOL 112 0.162 89.9 8.8% 15.6%vs RHP 402 13.6% 8.3% 9.3% 30

4 Brooks Lee 40 D +750 WARM 124 0.186 88.3 5.4% 20.8%vs RHP 374 16.3% 8.3% 11.5% 40

5 Trevor Larnach 38 D — · 146 0.158 87.8 7.0% 15.9%vs RHP 391 9.7% 10.0% 9.1% 21

6 Luke Keaschall 30 D +700 · 192 0.115 85.5 4.9% 10.0%vs RHP 378 7.0% 8.3% 7.0% 36

7 Victor Caratini 29 D — COOL 197 0.101 89.5 6.6% 13.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 5

8 Austin Martin 27 D — · 207 0.092 87.0 4.6% 4.0%vs RHP 394 3.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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