TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.17×

TEX @ AZ

Chase Field · 8:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 3 mph slight_out 101°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+1 ↑

5:10p

+1 ↑

6:10p

+1 ↑

7:10p

+1 ↑

8:10p

+3 ↑

9:10p

conditions build late — the 9:10p window peaks +3

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 41 · vs Pfaadt ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 20 · vs Rocker → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Brandon Pfaadt RHP · AZ

leak 95

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson +390 C ●●●●●

2 Corey Seager +390 C ●●●●○

3 Ezequiel Duran +850 D ●●●○○

FADE Kumar Rocker RHP · TEX

leak 87

1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +700 D ●●●○○

2 Ketel Marte +370 D ●●○○○

3 Corbin Carroll +500 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 31.2% · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Pfaadt Edge +390 0.252 · 92.1 · 9.3% 50.0% 31.2% F B O C 59

· TEX Corey Seager vs Pfaadt Edge +390 0.202 · 91.6 · 10.7% 30.8% 24.0% F B O C 54

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Rocker Edge +500 0.226 · 91.8 · 9.6% 10.0% 13.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Rocker +700 0.193 · 84.9 · 7.0% 25.0% 14.8% F B O D 46

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Pfaadt +850 0.174 · 89.0 · 6.9% 23.1% 13.6% F B O D 43

· TEX Jake Burger vs Pfaadt +500 0.196 · 90.3 · 9.7% 15.4% 15.7% F B O D 49

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Rocker Edge +370 0.192 · 90.2 · 8.6% 12.5% 11.4% F B O D 46

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +850 0.128 · 88.0 · 6.3% 14.3% 8.0% F B O D 34

· AZ Tim Tawa COOL vs Rocker +700 0.154 · 90.6 · 8.7% 10.0% 10.3% F B O D 42

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Rocker +850 0.165 · 89.2 · 7.8% 9.1% 9.5% F B O D 41

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Pfaadt +500 0.194 · 88.9 · 7.0% 7.7% 9.5% F B O D 42

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +525 0.149 · 92.2 · 8.5% 7.7% 9.0% F B O D 40

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Rocker +950 0.109 · 86.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 33

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Rocker Edge +950 0.115 · 87.4 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 30

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.042 · 84.5 · — 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 16

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Rocker Edge — 0.127 · 87.4 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Brandon Pfaadt — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kumar Rocker — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Seager Burger Duran Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Pfaadt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Joc Pederson +390 · 59

Corey Seager +390 · 54

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 5:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 3 mph slight_out 101°F retractable

↑

3 mph · slight_out

101°F

5:10p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

100°F

6:10p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

99°F

7:10p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

98°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

97°F

9:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 101°F, wind 3 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Pfaadt · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 59 C +390 WARM 14 0.252 92.1 9.3% 30.9%vs RHP 396 23.5% 50.0% 31.2% 15

2 Corey Seager 54 C +390 · 34 0.202 91.6 10.7% 24.0%vs RHP 394 18.2% 30.8% 24.0% 37

3 Jake Burger 49 D +500 WARM 57 0.196 90.3 9.7% 20.0%vs RHP 402 16.5% 15.4% 15.7% 29

4 Ezequiel Duran 43 D +850 WARM 100 0.174 89.0 6.9% 21.0%vs RHP 397 13.3% 23.1% 13.6% 37

5 Wyatt Langford 42 D +500 COOL 108 0.194 88.9 7.0% 23.1%vs RHP 399 14.8% 7.7% 9.5% 29

6 Brandon Nimmo 40 D +525 COOL 127 0.149 92.2 8.5% 11.7%vs RHP 404 9.5% 7.7% 9.0% 37

7 Evan Carter 34 D +850 COOL 166 0.128 88.0 6.3% 12.3%vs RHP 380 7.5% 14.3% 8.0% 22

8 Nicky Lopez 16 D — COOL 218 0.042 84.5 — 4.5%vs RHP 397 1.8% 0.0% 7.0% 9

vs Kumar Rocker · RHP 1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 51 C +500 · 45 0.226 91.8 9.6% 15.9%vs RHP 402 13.5% 10.0% 13.6% 24

2 Ketel Marte 46 D +370 COOL 72 0.192 90.2 8.6% 14.9%vs RHP 408 14.9% 12.5% 11.4% 28

3 Nolan Arenado 46 D +700 COOL 78 0.193 84.9 7.0% 21.9%vs RHP 390 16.1% 25.0% 14.8% 34

4 Tim Tawa 42 D +700 COOL 110 0.154 90.6 8.7% 25.0%vs RHP 399 10.4% 10.0% 10.3% 23

5 Gabriel Moreno 41 D +850 · 120 0.165 89.2 7.8% 13.1%vs RHP 400 10.1% 9.1% 9.5% 31

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 33 D +950 COOL 173 0.109 86.9 7.1% 9.7%vs RHP 415 3.7% 0.0% 7.2% 18

7 Ildemaro Vargas 31 D — COOL 188 0.127 87.4 4.9% 6.1%vs RHP 396 4.5% 0.0% 6.8% 33

8 Geraldo Perdomo 30 D +950 COOL 191 0.115 87.4 4.5% 9.4%vs RHP 383 6.1% 0.0% 7.2% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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