TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.94×

KC @ BOS

Fenway Park · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 7 mph cross 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

4:10p

-1 ↑

5:10p

+1 ↑

6:10p

+3 ↑

7:10p

+5 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 8:10p window peaks +5

Best of game Wilyer Abreu conv 19 · vs Dobnak ⟷ Carter Jensen conv 24 · vs Suarez → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Randy Dobnak RHP · KC

leak 73

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Wilyer Abreu +400 C ●●●○○

2 Jarren Duran +575 D ●●○○○

3 Caleb Durbin +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Ranger Suarez LHP · BOS

leak 72

0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · stingy — thin edge

1 Carter Jensen +525 C ●●●●○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino +750 D ●●○○○

3 Nick Loftin +950 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 20.1% · 14D pace 27.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ HOT vs Suarez +525 0.213 · 91.4 · 8.0% 27.3% 20.1% F B O C 50

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Dobnak Edge +400 0.208 · 89.8 · 8.3% 23.1% 14.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Dobnak Edge +575 0.158 · 90.0 · 7.3% 18.2% 14.1% F B O D 44

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Suarez +750 0.144 · 89.8 · 6.7% 18.2% 8.5% F B O D 37

· KC Nick Loftin vs Suarez Edge +950 0.145 · 87.0 · 4.9% 10.0% 6.2% F B O D 33

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Suarez — 0.211 · 93.1 · 8.7% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 46

· KC Michael Massey vs Suarez +950 0.161 · 89.8 · 5.7% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 35

· KC Bobby Witt vs Suarez Edge — 0.172 · 92.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 38

· KC Salvador Perez vs Suarez Edge +525 0.154 · 89.0 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 34

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Dobnak +950 0.131 · 83.4 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 31

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Dobnak — 0.145 · 87.7 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 37

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Suarez Edge +950 0.114 · 88.3 · 5.4% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 29

· BOS Connor Wong COOL vs Dobnak — 0.114 · 85.7 · 5.0% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Ranger Suarez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Randy Dobnak — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jensen Pasquantino Abreu Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Dobnak fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Carter Jensen +525 · 50

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 7 mph cross 75°F open

-2

↑

7 mph · cross

73°F

4:10p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

74°F

5:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

72°F

6:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

70°F

7:10p

↑

8 mph · out

68°F

8:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 75°F, wind 7 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ranger Suarez · LHP 0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 50 C +525 HOT 49 0.213 91.4 8.0% 11.5%vs LHP 400 16.9% 27.3% 20.1% 28

2 Jac Caglianone 46 D — COOL 76 0.211 93.1 8.7% 26.9%vs LHP 416 14.4% 0.0% 14.2% 21

3 Bobby Witt 38 D — WARM 145 0.172 92.2 8.2% 16.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 38

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 37 D +750 WARM 150 0.144 89.8 6.7% 4.8%vs LHP 396 11.2% 18.2% 8.5% 34

5 Michael Massey 35 D +950 WARM 164 0.161 89.8 5.7% 25.0%vs LHP 399 7.1% 0.0% 10.7% 24

6 Salvador Perez 34 D +525 WARM 167 0.154 89.0 7.6% 9.8%vs LHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 40

7 Nick Loftin 33 D +950 WARM 174 0.145 87.0 4.9% 3.5%vs LHP 397 8.9% 10.0% 6.2% 31

8 Isaac Collins 29 D +950 COOL 202 0.114 88.3 5.4% 7.4%vs LHP 394 5.0% 0.0% 6.0% 22

vs Randy Dobnak · RHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu 50 C +400 · 51 0.208 89.8 8.3% 15.4%vs RHP 406 16.1% 23.1% 14.2% 35

2 Jarren Duran 44 D +575 WARM 90 0.158 90.0 7.3% 27.7%vs RHP 401 14.0% 18.2% 14.1% 31

3 Andruw Monasterio 37 D — COOL 156 0.145 87.7 6.1% 2.3%vs RHP 390 10.0% 0.0% 6.1% 13

4 Connor Wong 32 D — COOL 181 0.114 85.7 5.0% 4.8%vs RHP 395 6.8% 0.0% 5.8% 15

5 Caleb Durbin 31 D +950 COOL 186 0.131 83.4 3.9% 18.8%vs RHP 376 8.0% 0.0% 7.2% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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